The Family and Delinquency

1. The Family and Delinquency

2. Themes in the Course • Drugs: Marijuana is less dangerous than alcohol and tobacco • Prisons getting more money than education • Unemployment rate for youth is rising; what will happen to the crime rate for youth? • Principle of unintended consequences • Abandon deterrence for detention: get the gulag • GI Bill for WWII warriors: destroy the black family

3. News

4. 5 Most Addictive: Heroin, Cocaine, Amphetamine, Alcohol, Nicotine: Newsweek Graph Source: Lancet Pot

7. Recovery/Rehabilitation 13 % ofAdult Population In Need of Treatment, Drug & Alcohol Addiction, NJ 2003 Toxic Sober Adult population

8. Recovery rate Transition Model Toxic Sober Toxic 0.8 0.2 0.8 0.2 Toxic Sober 0.8 0.2 0.8 0.2 Recidivism rate Sober

9. Transition Model-2 = 0.8 0.2 0.8 0.2 Ptoxic (t=1)PSober (t=1) Ptoxic (t=2) PSober (t=2) Ptoxic = 0.80 Psober = 0.20 of 13% of addicted adults, so 10.4% of all adults are in a toxic state, while 89.6% of all adults are sober

10. Transition Model-3

11. News

12. Pew Center on the States

13. Crime rates Beginning to Rise

15. 16-19 Year olds

16. Lauren Spector

17. The Family and Delinquency • What is the role of the family in causing or preventing delinquency? • How important is the family in considering possible causes of delinquency?

18. The Importance of Causality A theme in this course

19. Reference: Lecture Six

20. Reference: Lecture Four

21. Expenditures per Capita Total cost = expenditures per capita Crime Control Technology $200 High loss rate state South Dakota $100 North Dakota Total cost = damages to victims $0 0 0.025 Index crimes per capita 0.050 Offenses Per Capita Total cost = $200 per capita = damages to victims = loss rate*0.05 so loss rate = $4,000 per Index Crime in South Dakota

22. CJS $ Per FBI Index Offense Vs. Income

24. Social Institutions Shaping Youth Education System Family Community

25. “The Rotten Kid Theorem” • Reference: Jack Hirshleifer, “The Expanding Domain of Economics” • Figure 1

26. Daughter’s Income Father’s Income

27. Daughter’s Selfish Preferences: UD = UD(YD) Daughter’s Income, YD Best Better Good Father’s Income, YF

28. Family Joint Income Opportunities When Both the Child and Parent Agree Daughter’s Income Father’s Income

29. Short-sighted selfish daughter prefers point R Daughter’s Income R Father’s Income

30. Daughter’s Income Family Income = Daughter’s Income + Father’s Income Father’s Income

31. Daughter’s Income Family Income Is Maximum At Point J R J Father’s Income

32. How Does the Parent Inducethe Selfish Child to Act in the Family Interest? Did King Lear Have It Right?

33. Father’s Altruistic Preferences: UF = UF(YD , YF) Daughter’s Income Father’s Income

34. Why Does The Parent Care For The Child? • Darwinian (evolutionary) motive: survival of the genes

35. If the father is sufficiently altruistic, then the daughter’s enlightened self-interest is to prefer point A, and she can be induced to behave in a cooperative way, allowing point J that leads to point A Daughter’s Income A R J Father’s Income

36. If the father is insufficiently altruistic, then the daughter will prefer point R to point B and, as a result, family income and fortunes will be lower Daughter’s Income R B J Father’s Income

37. So, Love, Not Greed, Makes the World Go ‘Round • In what kind of environment does love and caring flourish? • both biological parents are present • educated, enlightened self-interest • a family with enough time and resources to care for one another

38. Trends Affecting Families Changes in Family Structure

39. Source: US Statistical Abstract

40. Marriage Rates Source: Center for Disease Control, CDC

41. Number of Divorces and Children Affected Source: Center for Disease Control, CDC

42. Age Specific Divorce Rates, men and Women Source: Center for Disease Control, CDC

43. Divorce Rates by Duration of Marriage Source: Center for Disease Control, CDC

49. Source: US Statistical Abstract

50. Source: US Statistical Abstract