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Decision-making Systems

Decision-making Systems. Overview. What managers do? Decision-making Many views of MIS Types of MIS. What managers do?. Regular meetings. Travel. Other meetings. Desk work. Phone calls. Managerial roles and IS support. Role. IS support. interpersonal.

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Decision-making Systems

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  1. Decision-making Systems

  2. Overview What managers do? Decision-making Many views of MIS Types of MIS

  3. What managers do? Regular meetings Travel Other meetings Desk work Phone calls

  4. Managerial roles and IS support Role IS support interpersonal e-mail, video/teleconferencing, computer-mediated meetings informational TPS,MIS,EIS,OIS decisional DSS,GDSS,EIS, AI/ES

  5. Decision-making Intelligence problem definition Design alternatives resolution Choice

  6. Decision Support in Business Decision Structure Information Characteristics Ad Hoc Unscheduled Summarized Infrequent Forward Looking External Wide Scope Information Requirements of Decision Makers Unstructured Strategic Management Executives & Directors Tactical Management Business Unit Management Self-Directed Teams Information Decisions Semi-Structured Prespecified Scheduled Detailed Frequent Historical Internal Narrow Focus Operational Management Operating Management & Self-Directed Teams Structured

  7. Decision Support in Business Characteristics of Information Products Time Timliness Currency Frequency Time Period • Time Dimension Form Clarity Detail Order Presentation Media Content Accuracy Relevance Completeness Conciseness Scope Performance • Content Dimension • Form Dimension

  8. Decision Support in Business Decision Structure Structured Decisions Semistructured Unstructed

  9. strategic tactical operational NOW weeks 5-7 years Time horizon

  10. Users' view

  11. Federative view P R O D U C T I O N M A N A G E M E N T Data base management system M A R K E T I N G F I N A N C E P E R S O N N E L DATA BASE

  12. Functional areas Integrative view Decision levels Data base management system

  13. TPS transaction processing systems Types of Information Systems MIS management reporting EIS executive information systems DSS decision support systems GDSS group decision support systems AI/ES expert systems

  14. Sales Prospects and Rivals’ News Rivals’ News and Company News Sales Prospects Rivals’ News Sales Prospects and Company News Company News Management Information Systems Management Reporting Alternatives Components of a Marketing Information System CLIENTS INTERNAL DATABASES Customer Data SERVER Sales Data News Wires Via the Internet Inventory Data The Server Filters Information Based on Users’ Custom Requirements Firewall

  15. Decision type STRUCTURED SEMI-STRUCTURED UNSTRUCTURED Intelligence no knowledge no knowledge knowledge of one or two Design of all of any of the Choice steps steps steps EIS DSS TPS

  16. Specific DSS DSS DSS generators USERS tools technical DSS intermediary Generator support DSS Builder managers, users manager toolsmith

  17. Anatomy of a DSS model base data base MBMS DBMS DSS generator DGMS dialog,user interface users

  18. Dialog styles • Basic types • Q&A - Question and answer • Command language • Menu • Input Form/Output Form • Input-in-Context-of-Output • Pros and cons • Mixed dialogs

  19. Decision Support Systems Using Decision Support • What-if Analysis • Sensitivity Analysis • Goal-Seeking Analysis • Optimization Analysis

  20. GDSS - Group Decision Support Systems TIME PLACE • DSS plus: • Groupware • Facilities place LAN decision network WAN decision network high Decision frequency Decision room Teleconferencing low close far

  21. Executive Information Systems • present information for top management • supports problem/opportunity discovery and assessment • is used for control andstrategic planning • are multimedia systems • provide summary and detailed information, with the ability to "drill down" into the data • provide internal and external information • provide different time and space information

  22. Artificial Intelligence Overview of AI

  23. Artificial Intelligence Cognitive Science Applications Natural Interface Applications Robotics Applications Artificial Intelligence The Domains of AI • Expert Systems • Learning Systems • Fuzzy Logic • Genetic Algorithms • Neural Networks • Intelligent Agents • Visual Perception • Tactility • Dexterity • Locomotion • Navigation • Natural Languages • Speech Recognition • Multisensory Interfaces • Virtual Reality

  24. Expert systems ...an intelligent computer program that uses knowledge and inference procedures to solve problems that require significant human expertise for their solution. The knowledge of an expert systems consists of facts and heuristics. Facts constitute the body of information publicly available and agreed upon by experts in a field. Heuristics are mostly private rules of good judgement that characterize expert-level decision making in a field. E. Feigenbaum, Stanford University

  25. Inference Engine Program User Interface Programs Expert Advice Knowledge Base Knowledge Acquisition Program Knowledge Engineering Artificial Intelligence Expert Systems The Expert System Expert System Software User Workstation Expert System Development Expert and/or Knowledge Engineer Workstation

  26. Use and development of ES • Expert systems products • Expert systems shells • Expert systems players • knowledge user • knowledge engineer • domain expert

  27. Artificial Intelligence Virtual Reality (VR) • Computer Simulated Reality • Multisensory Input/Output Devices • Data Glove • Walker • Creating Telepresence With Sight, Sound, and Touch

  28. Artificial Intelligence Virtual Reality (VR)

  29. GIS • It is important to appreciate that GIS does not always provide exact answers to problems, but by identifying trends based on geography, GIS can reveal patterns that can help us make informed decisions. A GIS can improve decision-making; it cannot make decisions for us.

  30. GIS Example: Emergency services By using the GIS as a computerized map, controllers of police vehicles and ambulances can instantly call up a detailed map of the area around an incident. By tracking the vehicles in real time and using route-finding GIS functions, the controller can identify the best vehicle to attend and give directions for the fastest way to the incident. They can even store historical information and look for incident patterns and black spots.

  31. GIS Example: Supermarket locations Supermarket chains use GIS to help site new stores and to plan their distribution networks. By comparing how many people live within 15-minutes drive time of a particular location with the number of supermarkets already trading in that area, the GIS can identify suitable locations with an optimized catchment area. Supermarket chains also use socio-economic data to create profiles of the people in their catchment areas to help them understand which other parts of the country are likely to be successful growth areas.

  32. Additional Readings • SDSS • Virtual Teams • Commerical GDSS • An Expert systems Application • DSS..Application • GIS Applications  • Neural Networks • Negotaiation System Example • Knowledge management: big challenges, big rewards • New Directions in GDSS • RMIS system provides Chubb customers with current data and extensive drill-down analysis

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