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BIODIESEL IN BRAZIL: TODAY’S PANORAMA OF THE INDUSTRY AND FUTURE SCENARIOS VIA A FUZZY MODELING.

BIODIESEL IN BRAZIL: TODAY’S PANORAMA OF THE INDUSTRY AND FUTURE SCENARIOS VIA A FUZZY MODELING. Bruno F. V. M. Coelho, Petrobras Thiago P. Amaral, Petrobras / Universidade Federal Fluminense. 1. Introduction.

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BIODIESEL IN BRAZIL: TODAY’S PANORAMA OF THE INDUSTRY AND FUTURE SCENARIOS VIA A FUZZY MODELING.

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  1. BIODIESEL IN BRAZIL: TODAY’S PANORAMAOF THE INDUSTRY AND FUTURE SCENARIOSVIA A FUZZY MODELING. Bruno F. V. M. Coelho, Petrobras Thiago P. Amaral, Petrobras / Universidade Federal Fluminense

  2. 1. Introduction • This work uses primary and secondary sources of information to propose an exercise of economical modeling for the construction of future scenarios by means of a fuzzy logic tool. • The first part of the article uses primary data found at ANP (2010 a, b and c) in order to trace today’s configuration of the industry in Brazil. Based on these data, production, investments, production inputs and the country’s geographic distribution of industry may be discussed. Other auxiliary materials such as the Enterprises’ investment plans (Petrobras, 2010) and white-papers from Federal Government (EPE 2010) display indications of the desired aims for the biodiesel industry in Brazil. • The second part will show the main variables used in the model: the oil price, the environmental pressures, the political incentives and technology. • Finally will be shown the scenarios traced using the fuzzy logic tool in Matlab.

  3. 2. The biodiesel fuel in Brazil Capacity authorized by the ANP, production andcompulsory demand for biodiesel in Brazil (2005 - 2010)Source: ANP (2011)

  4. 2. The biodiesel fuel in Brazil Production X Capacity authorized by ANP (2008 - 2009)Source: ANP (2010a)

  5. 2. The biodiesel fuel in Brazil • Important facts: • December 2004 – Creation of the National Program of Biodiesel Production and Use (PNPB) – Economical and Social focuses. • Law 11097/05 – Stablish a schedule to the mix of biodiesel in diesel. • Social Fuel Stamp – Incentives to north and northeast production and the use of some feedstocks like .

  6. 2. The biodiesel fuel in Brazil Raw materials used for biodiesel production in Brazil - Jan 2011Source: ANP (2011).

  7. 2. The biodiesel fuel in Brazil Production of biodiesel in BrazilSource: Elaborated from data of ANP (2010b)

  8. 3. Relevant factors for determining the development of biodiesel production in Brazil. • 3.1. Oil Price • 3.2. Environmental factors • 3.3. Political incentive factors • 3.4. Technological factors

  9. 3.1 Oil prices • The price of oil has a significant role in make viable alternative energies. • During the price oil shocks in the 70`s Brazil has developed his Ethanol Program. • In a nutshell, high oil price helps to develop biodiesel production and a lower oil price make harder the entrance of this product in the market.

  10. 3.1 Oil prices • In this work we chose the interval between 50 and 120 US$/bbl, because it is a scene contained in most scenarios of future prices for a barrel of oil. Historic and forecast for oil prices in EIA Scenario.Source: EIA (2010)

  11. 3.2. Environmental factors • Biodiesel is regarded as one of the alternative sources to tackle the climate change. • The US Department of Energy predicts a increase from 2% to 6% in the biofuels consumption in the total liquid fuels demand by 2030. • According to this scenario biofuels will have the fastest growing rate compared with other alternatives like XTL.

  12. 3.2 Environmental factors • In the model presented in this paper we used the CO2 equivalent concentration levels into the atmosphere as a "proxy" variable to this pressure. • As higher (near to 450ppm) this concentration the lower was the biodiesel penetration in the market. Otherwise lower CO2 (near the current 280ppm) concentration leads to a higher use of biodiesel in the energetic matrix.

  13. 3.3 Political incentives • The establishment of a minimum percentage blend of biodiesel with mineral diesel ensures a steady demand for producers. • Ten Year Plan for Energy (EPE, 2010) shows that the amount destined to biodiesel represents only 0.1% of the total planned for the investment in the energy area. Even in comparison to the investment in liquid biofuel, the value of only 500 million Reais in a total of 66 billion Reais destined to the ethanol production. • Thus, for the construction of the scenarios proposed in this paper, we have considered that in a medium scenario which maintains the incentives of the regulatory framework, there would be an expansion of installed capacity for up to 3 million cubic meters per year, a figure a little above what Petrobras (2009) estimates as the potential market, if it is maintained the requirement of B5 diesel. A scenario in which there are greater incentives (such as higher exports), would lead to increased capacity up to 6 million cubic meters, slightly above capacity already authorized by the ANP.

  14. 3.4. Technological factors • Taking into consideration the limitation of investments in biodiesel provided in EPE (2010), a major productive innovation in this area would be due to circumstantial environmental factors more than to the organized and structured investments for this purpose in this industry. • This paper considers the possibility of small breakthrough innovations in the industry and sets a very low probability of occurrence of structural innovations that could change the work of the industry, with productivity gains that allowed ANP auction prices around 1,00 R$ / liter of biodiesel B100 (mid-2010 the prices of auction were around R$ 1.80 per liter, according to data of ANP (2010c). On the other hand, the work provides the opportunity for productivity marginal gains resulting from incremental innovations in agricultural production, in the transesterification process, and in waste treatment to allow the prices of biodiesel to hike the price of mineral diesel around R$ 1.65/liter in May 2010

  15. 3. Relevant factors for determining the development of biodiesel production in Brazil.

  16. 4. Scenarios for the production of biodiesel obtained with the tools of fuzzy logic

  17. 5. Conclusions • Brazil is among today’s major biodiesel producers and has observed an impressive increase of production in the last 6 years. • Nevertheless, biodiesel still sums up to a minimal fraction of Brazil’s energy matrix and many of the government’s social aims have still remained unattained. • Our model estimated that, even for expected levels of the variables arbitrated in a conservative manner, the production of biodiesel in the country tends to grow. • This behavior, maybe, can be explained by the great inertia contained in some variables discussed here like the governmental incentives. • These results are encouraging, when you think of the enormous social challenge that the biodiesel industry still has to face and the tremendous opportunities that still exist in this market

  18. THANK YOU! • THIAGO PERIARD thiagoperiard@petrobras.com.br

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