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Thousand Oaks

Thousand Oaks

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Thousand Oaks

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  1. Thousand Oaks Dan Hamilton Chuck Maxey Bill Watkins March 2008

  2. Modeling

  3. Endogenous variables Exogenous variables Stochastic relationships Assumptions Embedded in larger model Risks Input-Output models Time Series Modeling

  4. Assumptions Compare To Baseline Not What Might Be Not Alternative Scenarios Scenarios

  5. Baseline United States Recession California Recession Land Use Initiative Amgen Scenarios

  6. Real Output Growth Job Growth Population Growth Real Per-Capita General Funds Revenue ScenariosHeadline Data

  7. Baseline Assumptions

  8. United States Economy California Economy Cyclical Slowdown Financial Market Stress Real Estate Related Retail Sales Auto Sales Baseline Scenario

  9. Countrywide Amgen State Budget Local Real Estate Baseline Scenario

  10. United States GDP Growth 7.2 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3 1.9 1.6 0.8 -0.2 -0.2 -1.9 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010

  11. California GDP Growth 9.9 7.9 7.6 6.2 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.3 4.9 4.6 4.2 4.2 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.0 2.9 2.2 1.9 1.3 1.2 0.6 -0.1 -0.4 -1.0 -1.9 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010

  12. 6800 6800 6800 6700 6675 6650 6625 6600 6326 5800 5400 4400 4000 3523 3459 2981 2614 2591 2287 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 Amgen Employees

  13. BASELINE

  14. Highest Economic Growth Highest Population Growth Slow Growth Weak Home Prices Modest Fiscal Challenges Best Fiscal Outcome Summary

  15. US RECESSION

  16. Comparison of United States Scenarios GDP growth rate 7.2 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.6 0.8 -0.2 -0.2 -1.0 -1.2 Baseline US Recession -1.9 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010

  17. Serious Local Recession Very Weak Home Prices Serious Fiscal Challenges Worst Fiscal Scenario Summary

  18. CA RECESSION

  19. Comparison of California Scenarios GDP growth rate Baseline CA Recession 9.9 7.9 7.6 6.2 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.3 4.9 4.6 4.2 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.0 1.9 1.3 1.2 0.6 -0.1 -0.4 -0.5 -1.0 -1.0 -1.5 -1.9 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010

  20. Job Growth Percent change CA Recession Scenario 8.1 6.8 5.8 2.7 2.5 2.1 1.9 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.2 -0.2 -1.1 -1.1 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010

  21. Intermediate Between Baseline and United States Recession Modest Local Recession Very Weak Home Prices Difficult Fiscal Challenges Summary

  22. LAND USE INITIATIVE

  23. Immediate Implementation Development Slows Immediately Time Series Analysis vs. Input-Output Analysis Land Use Initiative

  24. Real Output Growth Percent change Land Use Initiative Scenario 18.0 17.8 8.4 6.4 4.9 4.9 4.7 4.4 4.0 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.2 0.4 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010

  25. Job Growth Percent change Land Use Initiative Scenario 8.1 6.8 5.8 2.7 2.5 2.1 1.9 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.2 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010

  26. Population Growth Percent change Land Use Initiative Scenario 2.7 2.5 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 -1.1

  27. Real Per Capita General Fund Revenues 2007 dollars Land Use Initiative Scenario 642.5 587.5 568.1 564.4 563.7 561.2 560.6 560.5 557.7 556.7 556.5 555.3 544.2 541.2 539.7 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010

  28. Development Collapses Muted Initial Economic & Fiscal Impacts Very Slow Economic Growth Stronger Home Prices Fiscal & Economic Impacts Increase Over Time Summary

  29. AMGEN

  30. Comparison of Amgen Scenarios Amgen employees 6800 6800 6800 6326 5800 5700 5400 4700 4400 4000 3700 3523 3459 2981 2700 2614 2591 2287 1700 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 Amgen Baseline Amgen Leaves CA

  31. Local Recession Through Forecast Horizon Extraordinarily Weak Home Prices Fiscal Challenges Increase Over Time Summary

  32. Comparisons

  33. Output Growth

  34. Job Growth

  35. Population Growth