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Theme 4: Human Interactions with the Environment

Theme 4: Human Interactions with the Environment. David Letson Marine Affairs/Economics University of Miami/RSMAS. Roadmap. I. Statement of Theme 4. Humans shape & are shaped by natural systems. II. Important contributions to several NOAA related interdisciplinary projects.

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Theme 4: Human Interactions with the Environment

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  1. Theme 4: Human Interactions with the Environment David Letson Marine Affairs/Economics University of Miami/RSMAS

  2. Roadmap • I. Statement of Theme 4. Humans shape & are shaped by natural systems. • II. Important contributions to several NOAA related interdisciplinary projects. • Use of climate information. • Conceptual models of NERR sites. • Marine reserve design. • III. Vision for the future.

  3. Part I: Humans as Part of System • Inter-dependence of humans and ecosystems • Role of human systems in environmental decisions. • Two foci • Human dimensions of climatic change and variability • Sustainable use of the world’s fisheries. • No outside influence. Essential systemic component.

  4. Our Approach: Integrated Assessment • Synthesis and critical appraisal of scientific information on a topic. • Advancing state of knowledge & ensuring its relevance. • Multiple disciplines & institutions. Local knowledge. • Not just the analytical products but also the dialogue that produced them.

  5. Part II: A Few Projects • (A) Use of climate information • (B) Conceptual models of NERR sites • (C) Marine reserve design.

  6. 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 Niño Neutral Niña (A) Use of Climate Information Precipitation ENSO affects Regional Climate • Lower (higher) temps in El Niño (Niña). • Higher (lower) precip in El Niño (Niña). ENSO affects Tomatoes • Winter yields decrease during El Niño. NOAA/OGP & USDA/RMA funds. UM, FSU, UGA, UF, Auburn & UA-Huntsville. Temperature Tomato yields Relative Yields Source: James Hansen et al. Journal of Climate 1999

  7. Bridging gap between climate forecasters and users • learn user needs for and perceptions of climate forecasts • evaluate usefulness and limitations of climate forecasts • translate forecasts into decision support for agriculture & water • demonstrate successful forecast applications

  8. (B) Conceptual Models: Estuaries as Integrated Systems • Natural systems: rates of soil and water movement. • Socioeconomic factors: size and distribution of costs and benefits. • Interplay of natural and human systems creates problems, opportunities. • NOAA’S Educational Partnership Program for Minority Serving Institutions: UM, FAMU, Morgan State, Jackson State, Delaware State, South Carolina State

  9. Integrated Watershed Analysis & Management • Five NERR sites in SC, FL, MD, MS & DE • Social scientists assess societal goals and policy options through a process of inclusion and consultation. • Can only be as good as cooperating social and natural science efforts. • We depend on natural scientists to assess changes in the natural world that may affect human well being.

  10. (C) Marine Reserves • (1) Broad/Olson NSF biocomplexity project in the Bahamas. • (2) Die/Letson/Shivlani MARFIN recreational diving survey to evaluate benefits of reserves.

  11. (1) Marine Reserve Design • Optimal placement of Bahamian MPA network. • National Science Foundation/Biocomplexity project. • Integrating socioeconomics, biology & physics. • Connectivity: attitudes, uses, resource conditions. • UM (K. Broad & D. Olson), American Museum of Natural History, Stanford, Resources for the Future.

  12. (2) Recreational Diving and Marine Reserves Diver preference survey Questionnaire developed in conjunction with students Kristin Kleisner and Katie Drew Administered by cooperating dive shops Die/Letson/Shivlani with MARFIN support Goals: Willingness-to-pay for marine reserves in FKNMS Rank attributes that enhance diver satisfaction Evaluate diver preference for marine reserves

  13. Part III: Vision of the Future • Climate services. • Sustainable fisheries. • We can help each other a great deal.

  14. ClimateServices A process including: • Several components • Not only climate forecasts • Continuous evaluation and incorporation of feedback Adapted from: Sarewitz, Pielke and Byerly 2000. Prediction. Island Press. Page 376.

  15. Sustainable Fisheries • Biologically healthy fish stocks. • Economically healthy fishing businesses. • Maintaining social productivity: • Fishing cultures and communities; • Diversity in scales of fishing operations; • Opportunities for recreational & subsistence fishing. • How should we measure success?

  16. In Conclusion • Goals determined by societal preferences, by design or default. • Humans are not an “outside influence” but an essential systemic component. • Toward a shared vision of sustainable use.

  17. Climate Information &Water Resources Planning • Analysis of the decision-making process • constraints to forecast use • user needs • organizational decision rules and process • Decision support tools • existing procedures, models and management tools • refinements to incorporate climate information

  18. Probability of Hurricane Strikes

  19. Fire Threat in a La Niña spring. Other Potential Uses of Climate Forecasts

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