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MPR 2008:2

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MPR 2008:2

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  1. MPR 2008:2 03.06.2008

  2. 1. Repo rate with uncertainty bandsPer cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank

  3. 2. CPI with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistcs Sweden and the Riksbank

  4. 3. GDP with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change, seasonal adjusted Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  5. 4. Oil price, Brent crudeUSD per barrel Sources: Intercontinental Exchange and the Riksbank

  6. 5. Nominal and real oil priceUSD per barrel (Brent) Sources: Intercontinental Exchange and the Riksbanken

  7. 6. Commodity pricesUSD, annual percentage change Source: The Economist.

  8. 7. CPI and GDP in OECDAnnual percentage change Sources: OECD and the Riksbank

  9. 8. Unit labour costs for the economy as a wholeAnnual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  10. 9. Actual and trend productivity growth in the economy as a wholeAnnual percentage change, seasonal adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  11. 10. Food, energy and mortgage costs in the CPIAnnual percentage change Source: Statistics Sweden Note. The weight of the respective components is given in brackets.

  12. 11. CPI, outcome and forecasts on different occasionsAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

  13. 12. Food prices at different stagesAnnual percentage change Sources: The Economist and Statistics Sweden.

  14. 13. CPI and CPIFAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

  15. 14. Labour force and number of employedThousands, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  16. 15. Percentage of unemployedPercentage of the labour force, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  17. 16. GDPQuarterly changes in per cent calculated as an annual rate, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

  18. 17. Growth in the World and SwedenAnnual percentage change, calendar-adjusted data Sources: IMF, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank. Note. Broken lines and striped bars represent the Riksbank's forecast.

  19. 18. GDP for the United States and the euro areaQuarterly changes in per cent calculated as an annual rate, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Eurostat, Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Riksbank

  20. 19. ExportsQuarterly changes in per cent calculated as an annual rate Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

  21. 20. TCW exchange rateIndex, 18.11.92 = 100 Source: The Riksbank

  22. 21. Interest rates in SwedenPer cent Sources: Ecowin and the Riksbank

  23. 22. Households' disposable incomes, consumption and saving ratioAnnual percentage change, fixed prices and percentage of disposable income Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  24. 23. InvestmentsQuarterly changes in per cent calculated as an annual rate Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

  25. 24. Public sector consumption expenditureAnnual percentage change, fixed prices and percentage of GDP Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  26. 25. General government net lendingProportion of GDP, per cent Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Striped bars represent the Riksbank's forecast.

  27. 26. Repo rate forecasts on different occasionsPer cent Source: The Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

  28. 2007 2008 2009 2010 2 . 2 3.9 (3.5) 3.5 (2.8) 2.3 (2.3) CPI 1 . 2 3.0 (2.6) 2.8 (2.4) 2.0 (2.0) CPIX 1 . 5 2.0 (2.0) 2.2 (2.2) 2.2 (2.1) CPIX excl. energy 1 . 5 3.1 (2.8) 3.1 (2.6) 2.3 (2.2) CPI with fixed interest rate Table 1. Inflation, annual averageAnnual percentage change, () = Latest MPU Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  29. Sept. 07 Sept. 08 Sept. 09 Sept. - 10 Sept. 11 2 . 2 4.6 (3.8) 3.0 (2.6) 2.2 (2.2) 2 . 1 CPI 1 . 0 3.8 (3.2) 2.4 (2.3) 2.0 (1.9) 1 . 9 CPIX 1 . 4 2.4 (2.4) 2.2 (2.2) 2.2 (2.1) 2 . 0 CPIX excl. energy 1 . 3 3.9 (3.3) 2.7 (2.5) 2.2 (2.1) 2 . 1 CPI with fixed interest rate Table 2. Inflation. 12-month rateAnnual percentage change. () = Latest MPU Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  30. 2007 2008 2009 2010 4.9 (4.9) 4.0 (3.8) 3.9 (4.0) 4.4 (4.5) GDP. world Crude oil price Brent. USD/barrel. annual 73 (73) 123 (103) 137 (102) 136 (100) average 125.2 121.9 (122.4) 121.9 (122.5) 122.8 (123.3) Exchange rate. TCW index. annual average 3.5 4 . 4 (4 . 3) 4 . 9 (4 . 3) 4 . 6 (4 . 3) Repo rate. annual average General government net lending. percentage o f 3 . 4 (3 . 4) 3 . 1 (2 . 9) 1 . 3 (1 . 4) 0 . 9 (0 . 9) GDP 2.7 (2.6) 2 . 1 (2 . 6) 1 . 2 (1. 8) 2 . 7 (2 . 8) GDP 2.9 (2.8) 1.9 (2.4) 1.4 (1.9) 2.4 (2.5) GDP. calendar - adjusted 2.5 1.4 (1.1) - 0.4 (-0.1) - 0.1 (0.0) No. of employed. 15 - 74 6.1 5.9 (6.0) 6.5 (6.2) 6.5 (6.3) Unemployment. 15 - 74 (EU definition ) 3.3 (3.4) 4.4 (4.5) 3.7 (3.8) 3.8 (3.8) Hourly wage in economy as a whole *Per cent of labour force Table 3. Key figuresAnnual percentage change. unless otherwise specified. ( ) = Latest MPU Sources: IMF, Intercontinental Exchange, National Mediation Office and the Riksbank

  31. Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 3 Q 3 Q 3 2008 2008 2008 2009 2010 2011 Repo rate 4.25 4.5 (4.3) 4.8 (4.3) 4.9 (4.3) 4.6 (4.3) 4.4 Table 4. Repo rate forecastPer cent. quarterly average values. ( ) = Latest MPU Source: The Riksbank

  32. 27. Repo rate assumptionsPer cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

  33. 28. CPIAnnual percentage change Source: The Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

  34. 29. GDPAnnual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Black lines show average GDP growth in the periods 1981-2007 and 1998-2007; 2, 3 and 3.2 per cent.

  35. 30. TCW exchange rateIndex, 18 November 1992 = 100 Source. The Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

  36. 31. Real repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  37. 32. Production gap (GDP)Percentage deviation from the HP trend Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  38. 33. Labour market gapPercentage deviation from the HP trend Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  39. 34. Number of hours workedAnnual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  40. 35. Employment ratePer cent, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  41. 36. UnemploymentPercentage of the labour force, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  42. 37. Commodity price index excluding energyIndex, USD Sources: The Economist and the Riksbank.

  43. 38. GDP, scenario with lower commodity pricesAnnual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

  44. 39. Repo rate, scenario with lower commodity pricesPer cent, quaterly average Source: The Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

  45. 40. CPI, scenario with lower commodity pricesAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

  46. 41. Repo rate, scenario with lower growth and higher inflationPer cent, quaterly average Source: The Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

  47. 42. CPI, scenario with lower growth and higher inflationAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

  48. 43. GDP, scenario with lower growth and higher inflation Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

  49. 44. Production gap (GDP), scenario with lower growth and higher inflation Percentage deviation from the HP trend Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.

  50. 45. Labour market gap, scenario with lower growth and higher inflation Percentage deviation from the HP trend Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's forecast.