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WFO Applications of TAMDAR

WFO Applications of TAMDAR. Many WFOs have begun to use TAMDAR in their public, aviation and marine forecasts. Many other applications are yet to be realized, such as fire weather, HAZMAT support, and convective warnings. FSL Web Access.

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WFO Applications of TAMDAR

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  1. WFO Applications of TAMDAR • Many WFOs have begun to use TAMDAR in their public, aviation and marine forecasts. • Many other applications are yet to be realized, such as fire weather, HAZMAT support, and convective warnings.

  2. FSL Web Access • Total soundings accessed by NWS Central Region offices are now more than double before the GLFE began. • Sounding requests from TAMDAR airports rose from 279 in December 2004 to more than 700 in February and March 2005

  3. Area Forecast Discussions • NWS meteorologists have mentioned the use of TAMDAR in their area forecast discussions about fifty times each month.

  4. TAMDAR Data Use • TAMDAR has been used in forecasting • Fog formation • Model comparison and verification • Lake effect snow • Precipitation type – Ice Storm • Precipitation type - Snowstorm • Use in Local Models

  5. Fog Formation AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS GREEN BAY WI 345 AM CST MON MAR 21 2005 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RELATIVELY QUIET TONIGHT COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS. NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW FLURRIES SEEN OVER THE LAKE ON RADAR SHOULD STAY THERE. DONT THINK FOG WILL DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE DUE TO GRADIENT WIND AND DRY TAMDAR SOUNDINGS FROM LATE EVENING FLIGHTS INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AIRPORT.

  6. Fog Formation AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS NORTHERN INDIANAAFDIWX 645 PM EST SAT MAR 26 2005 .AVIATION... FOG/LOW CLOUDS A CONCERN FOR AVIATION TONIGHT AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS 5-8DEG WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SUNSET APPROACHES. HWVR, FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LOW/MID CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA, AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING NE TOWARD THE MDWST SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. ALSO, TAMDAR SOUNDINGS FROM SBN/FWA THIS EVE SHOWING DWPTS DECREASING WITH HEIGHT IN LOWEST 50MB AGL

  7. Model Comparison & Verification • AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS GRAND RAPIDS MIAFDGRR 308 AM EST THU MAR 17 2005 THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE SIMILAR THIS MORNING AND BASICALLY HAVE THE NORTHWEST US SHORT WAVE INDUCING A SFC LOW IN THE PLAINS TODAY AND THEN THAT LOW MOVES EAST THROUGH THE CWA BY LATE SATURDAY. GFS AND ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS LINE UP VERY NICELY WITH CURRRENT TAMDAR SOUNDINGS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND SHOW A REMARKABLY SIMILAR PROFILE.

  8. Lake Effect Snow AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS MARQUETTE MIAFDMQT 1032 AM EST SUN MAR 13 2005 .DISCUSSION... MAIN UPDATE CONCERN IS LAKE EFFECT. A POLAR VORTEX WAS LOCATED OVER FAR NW ONTARIO IN THE TROUGH...WITH A SHRTWV LOCATED NEAR PICKLE LAKE ONTARIO. HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THIS SHRTWV...NOW APPROXIMATELY AT 525 DAM (NEAR 10 DAM INCREASE SINCE 00Z). THESE RISING HEIGHTS HAVE ALSO YIELDED RISING 850MB TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS AROUND -15C OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND -18C OVER THE EASTERN PORTION. LAKE EFFECT CONTINUES DUE TO THE INSTABILITY...BUT DRY AIR AS SEEN ON A 12Z TAMDAR SOUNDING AT CMX AND THE 12Z GRB SOUNDING HAS KEPT THE LAKE EFFECT LIGHT.

  9. Precipitation type – Ice Storm Forum posting from Andrew Just at NWS Marquette Yesterday morning (December 30th) at the Marquette NWS office, we constantly looked at the latest TAMDAR soundings to get a measure of the amount of both dry air over the Western Great Lakes Region and how warm the air was aloft. The reason for this was the concern for a period of freezing rain across Upper Michigan, and whether some of the precipitation would start off as snow or sleet due to evaporative cooling. Surface observations told us when the freezing rain would transition over to rain, however the frequent soundings gave us more of an idea how long the freezing rain would last. Because the soundings showed potential for a couple of hours of freezing rain with little in the way of snow or sleet, we upgraded the winter weather advisories to ice storm warnings. These warnings would eventually verify during the afternoon, with reports of anywhere from 0.25 to 0.5 inch of ice along with plenty of accidents on the roads.

  10. Precipitation type - Snowstorm Comments received from Dan Baumgardt, Science Officer, NWS La Crosse On December 5, 2004, there was some question on the precipitation type during the night. The models were indicating that the warm air would advance northward into the region...but the TAMDAR flights that evening showed that the cold air was holding.  As a result, the snow changing to all rain forecast was changed to all snow and accumulations were added to the forecast.  The area ended up seeing all snow during this event; thus, the TAMDAR data proved to be a very valuable data during this event.

  11. Use in Local Model AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATENWS CLEVELAND OHIOAFDCLE 940 PM EST WED MAR 2 2005 PREV UPDATE... AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED ABOUT THE CONTINUED MOISTURE OVR ONTARIO ROTATING INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST AREA IS NOW GENERALLY UNDER WEAK NVA WITH THE VORT NOW TO THE SE OF THE AREA...AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT THE MOISTURE WILL EXIT/DISSIPATE AS FAST AS THE MDLS SUGGEST. THE 18Z NAM INSISTS ON STRONG LOW LVL CVRG AND UPWARD MOTION ACROSS NW PA. COMBINED WITH THE LK HURON FETCH AND STRONGLY CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY MORNING THINK THAT LCLY HVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THRU MIDNIGHT. DATA FROM TAMDAR FLIGHT INTO ERI AT 23Z ALSO SHOWS INVERSION STILL ABOVE 6000 FT SO THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF LOW LVL INSTABILITY. NWS MQT WRF RUN FROM 18Z USING THE TAMDAR DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT PCPN FOR NW PA OVERNIGHT.

  12. Sounding Comparisons • TAMDAR was compared with NWS radiosondes at 1100 UTC and 2300 UTC Saturday, 4/9/05 • Comparisons at Minneapolis and International Falls were favorable, with little questionable data seen.

  13. International Falls, Minnesota • 2300 UTC April 9, 2005 • Temperature differences at 925, 850, and 700mb were 0.8C, 1.1C, and 0.4C • Dewpoint differences were 1.0C, 0.8C, and 0C • Wind speed and direction differences were negligable

  14. Minneapolis, Minnesota • 1100 UTC April 9, 2005 • Radiosonde compared to two TAMDAR soundings from short duration flights. • Average temperature differences at 950, 925, and 850 mb were 0.3C, 0.8C, and 0.2C • Average dewpoint differences were 0.7C, 1.1C, and 6.5C (sharp gradient at 850mb) • Wind direction differences averaged 10 to 20 degrees, speeds differed by up to 19 knots in strong, turbulent low level jet

  15. Need to Address • Update Mesaba Flight Schedule • Inform WFOs of change to GLFE duration • Get TAMDAR used for Severe Weather support by WFOs, CWSUs, AWC, SPC and airline meteorology units – believe this to be extremely important for success

  16. Mesaba Schedule • Current Mesaba schedule on GLFE web page is from December 2004 • Some flight times and routes have been changed • This should be updated immediately

  17. Inform WFOs of duration of GLFE • Will need to inform users to date change of GLFE. This may affect participation (should improve it), local model runs, and survey times • Other users such as the media and universities should also be informed

  18. Severe Weather Applications • TAMDAR should prove to be even more valuable during the convective season • Reduction of data due to icing should be greatly reduced • Events such as squall lines and mesoscale convective complexes are often poorly handed by models and forecasters due to lack of data. TAMDAR should be of great value

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