在中南海（与全世界）三种战争， 法律战争China’s Legal Warfare in the South China Sea (and worldwide)在中南海（與全世界）三種戰爭， 法律戰爭 美国鹦鹉螺研究所 The Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability 美國鸚鵡螺研究所
Main Points • China’s actions in the South China Sea (and anywhere law is weak or non existent) have a coherence, context and unfold generally according to design. • Legal WARFARE is warfare; it is not new, but the specific implementation guidelines are new. • China’s Three Warfaresof Psychological, Media and Legal warfare are complementary, simultaneous and asymmetric means of achieving political effects sans kinetic actions. • China’s application of Three Warfares sidesteps most traditional Western military theory. • Three Warfares are always “on”; setpre-conditions for kinetic warfare, enhance conditions during kinetic warfare and gain maximum effect post-conflict should deterrence fail. • The most important battlespace is the mind of others. • Three Warfares are a tacit recognition that nuclear weapons are essentially unusable. NOTE: The views expressed in this report do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Nautilus Institute. Nautilus seeks a diversity of views and opinions on significant topics in order to identify common ground.
Sources of China’s Strategic culture • Confucianist & Legalist: Sovereignty is absolute. If there is a peer, there is no sovereignty. • 1990 - Deng Xiaoping’s 24 character formula for China’s involvement with the world • 1997 - 16 character formula for civil-military relations • 2003 - Communist Party, Central Committee and the Central Military Commission approve new Political Work Regulations signifying unanimous approval from all three levers of power: Party, State and Military • 2010 - Revised guidelines for Political Work • 2013 – China’s National Security Council established. Primarily domestic-focused. For China, South China Sea is a domestic issue. • 2014 – China’s National Security Council announces it held its inaugural meeting.
What are the Three WARFARES?Overview • China’s Three Warfares三种战争 or shortened to 三战 san zhanare complementary, asymmetric, concurrent campaigns to win without fighting. • Approval in 2003 by China’s Communist Party, Central Committee and the Central Military Commission indicates support from Party, Government and Military – three main levers of power. • Specific details in Chapter 2, Section 18 of Chinese People’s Liberation Army Political Work Regulations. • Psychological Warfare 心里战争 xinlizhanzheng • Media Warfare 舆论战争yulunzhanzheng NOTE: more correctly translated as public opinion warfare • Legal Warfare 法律战争 falvzhanzheng
What are the Three WARFARES?Psychological Warfare 心里战争 • Psychological Warfare 心里战争 xinlizhanzheng “seeks to undermine an enemy’s ability to conduct combat operations through operations aimed at deterring, shocking, and demoralizing enemy military personnel and supporting civilian populations.” DOD definition • Tools: Express displeasure, assert hegemony, convey threats, reward Beijing orthodoxy • Methods: Economic boycotts (RP bananas), applying diplomatic pressure, harassing fishing vessels, building oil rigs, selling oil exploration blocs • Actors: State Owned Enterprises (e.g. CNOOC), Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Research institutions
What are the Three WARFARES?Media Warfare舆论战争 • Media Warfare 舆论战争 yulunzhanzheng “is aimed at influencing domestic and international public opinion to build support for China’s military actions and dissuade an adversary from pursuing actions contrary to China’s interests.” DOD Definition • Tools: films, television, books, the internet, Chinese news outlets abroad • Methods: Allow semblance of Chinese debate, while using those voices as reasons to avoid compromise. Present Chinese case abroad, prevent outside views from coming in. • Actors:CCTV, Xinhua, social media, overseas Chinese,
What are the Three WARFARES?Legal Warfare法律战争 1 of 4 • Legal Warfare 法律战争 xinlizhanzheng “uses international and domestic law to claim the legal high ground or assert Chinese interests. Can be used to thwart an opponent’s operational freedom & shape the operational space. Also used to build international support and manage political repercussions of China’s military actions. DOD Definition
What are the Three WARFARES?Legal Warfare法律战争 2 of 4 • Tools: • Existing international law such as UNCLOS • Domestic laws • Internationally accepted conventions e.g creating an ADIZ ( Air Defense Identification Zone), • Cartography • Access to Chinese officials, businesses and scholars
What are the Three WARFARES?Legal Warfare法律战争 3 of 4 • Methods: • Interpret law selectively • Pass domestic law, but require international acceptance (e.g. giving Sansha city administrative power over South China Sea or making foreign air and sea vessels comply with ADIZ) • Seek international legislation • Attempt to handle matters bi-laterally instead of multi-laterally • Use law enforcement authorities equipped with military equipment instead of military forces.
What are the Three WARFARES?Legal Warfare法律战争 4 of 5 • Actors: National, Provincial, Municipal levels, businesses, academics, international societies. Figure on next page shows selected official actors. • Significant possibilities for individual / low-level activity that is not coordinated at top-level, but fits within perceived guidelines • According to the director of the Military Lawyers Association Professional Committee 军事专业委员会, there are 200,000 Chinese lawyers involved in military, national defense and diplomacy matters.
Recommendations (for the US) • Strengthen alliance management. • Strengthen civil societies and facilitate stronger networks among the civil societies in order to prevent wedges. • Pass Free Trade Agreements with all allies and grant preferential trade to US friends • Enforce fair trade practices with China – possibly even in a tit-for-tat fashion. • Develop and promulgate a comprehensive, coherent non-military plan which Air Sea Battle should support. • Aggressively conduct Freedom of Navigation exercises (air and maritime), - even against friendly countries – to demonstrate commitment to rule of law. • Encourage external civil societies to produce more Chinese-language content to inform / temper debates in Chinese social media. • Deny visas for selected Chinese media until China improves media freedom and allows outside media the same kinds of access Chinese media enjoys in the West. • Increase US involvement and support for regional fora – mini-coalitions dedicated to strengthening normative behavior. • Increase public diplomacy to educate the public on the Three Warfares and their applicability to Sovereignty, Space, Air, Maritime, Internet, Economic, Diplomatic and Academic spheres – there is a multi-spectral challenge to the established world order
Parting Thoughts • Being unconquerable resides in you, being conquerable resides with the enemy 不可胜在己，可胜在敌bukeshengzaiji, keshengzai di • Whether in a Westphalian, anarchic or Confucian concept of international relations, it is up to every country to defend its own interests.
谢谢 / Thank You / 謝謝 美国鹦鹉螺研究所 The Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability 美國鸚鵡螺研究所 www.nautilus.org