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Improvement of departure prediction

Improvement of departure prediction. 07/06/2004, Bruxelles. Departure Estimates. LEONARDO. CDM. SMAN. ACARS. DMAN. SOBT. STOT. Taxitime. EOBT. ETOT. MTOT. TOBT. ATOT. AOBT. Taxi-Out Predictability. ERROR IN ABSOLUTE VALUE. ERROR AS A FUNCTION OF % EGOP. MTOT Mean Absolute Error.

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Improvement of departure prediction

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  1. Improvement of departure prediction 07/06/2004, Bruxelles

  2. Departure Estimates LEONARDO CDM SMAN ACARS DMAN SOBT STOT Taxitime EOBT ETOT MTOT TOBT ATOT AOBT

  3. Taxi-Out Predictability ERROR IN ABSOLUTE VALUE ERROR AS A FUNCTION OF % EGOP

  4. MTOT Mean Absolute Error On 24/01/2004 from 06:00 to 20:00 30 25 20 Minutes 15 10 5 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Take-off estimates : DMAN improvement 30’ before ATOT: error drops from 16’ to 9’ 20’ before ATOT: error drops from 12’ to 6’ ETOT-ATC & Airline MTOT-DMAN Minutes before ATOT

  5. MTOT Mean Absolute Error On 24/01/2004 from 06:00 to 20:00 30 25 20 Minutes 15 10 5 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Minutes before ATOT Take-off estimates : TOBT potential improvement 40’ before ATOT: error drops from 12’ to 10’TOBT simul. 20’ befor 6’TOBT simul. 45’ bef 30’ before ATOT: error drops from 9’ to 5’TOBT simulated ETOT-ATC & Airline MTOT-DMAN MTOT-CDM (simulated TOBT)

  6. Slot compliance alarms • Shadow-mode means alarms are not used • ATC works for real • they take care of early/late flights • alarm can be meaningful even if take-off is on slot • MTOT precision ~ Alarm precision • ATCO opinion is that they are reliable and usable

  7. Probability of an slot alarm to be reliable • Statistical simulation of the Alarm prediction based on MTOT error • Measurement of discrepancies between simulated alarms and slot compliance

  8. Qualitative results • For Airlines • Good understanding of taxiing • COBT / CTOT warning very helpful • For Airport • Anticipation of airport saturation • For ATC • Capacity to manage efficiently • Helpful to comply with slots • TOBT very important in the process

  9. Conclusions on Predictability Improvement • Better estimates for each event • The virtuous circle • Not possible in shadow-mode • Better in-block  Better off-block • Better off-block  Better take-off • Better take-off  Better in-block ?

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