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Enhanced Departure Prediction for Improved Airport Operations

This study analyzes the improvement of departure prediction accuracy at Bruxelles Airport using LEONARDO data, benefiting airlines, airports, and ATC with better estimates, slot compliance, and efficient operations. Results show significant error reduction with advanced predictions.

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Enhanced Departure Prediction for Improved Airport Operations

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  1. Improvement of departure prediction 07/06/2004, Bruxelles

  2. Departure Estimates LEONARDO CDM SMAN ACARS DMAN SOBT STOT Taxitime EOBT ETOT MTOT TOBT ATOT AOBT

  3. Taxi-Out Predictability ERROR IN ABSOLUTE VALUE ERROR AS A FUNCTION OF % EGOP

  4. MTOT Mean Absolute Error On 24/01/2004 from 06:00 to 20:00 30 25 20 Minutes 15 10 5 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Take-off estimates : DMAN improvement 30’ before ATOT: error drops from 16’ to 9’ 20’ before ATOT: error drops from 12’ to 6’ ETOT-ATC & Airline MTOT-DMAN Minutes before ATOT

  5. MTOT Mean Absolute Error On 24/01/2004 from 06:00 to 20:00 30 25 20 Minutes 15 10 5 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Minutes before ATOT Take-off estimates : TOBT potential improvement 40’ before ATOT: error drops from 12’ to 10’TOBT simul. 20’ befor 6’TOBT simul. 45’ bef 30’ before ATOT: error drops from 9’ to 5’TOBT simulated ETOT-ATC & Airline MTOT-DMAN MTOT-CDM (simulated TOBT)

  6. Slot compliance alarms • Shadow-mode means alarms are not used • ATC works for real • they take care of early/late flights • alarm can be meaningful even if take-off is on slot • MTOT precision ~ Alarm precision • ATCO opinion is that they are reliable and usable

  7. Probability of an slot alarm to be reliable • Statistical simulation of the Alarm prediction based on MTOT error • Measurement of discrepancies between simulated alarms and slot compliance

  8. Qualitative results • For Airlines • Good understanding of taxiing • COBT / CTOT warning very helpful • For Airport • Anticipation of airport saturation • For ATC • Capacity to manage efficiently • Helpful to comply with slots • TOBT very important in the process

  9. Conclusions on Predictability Improvement • Better estimates for each event • The virtuous circle • Not possible in shadow-mode • Better in-block  Better off-block • Better off-block  Better take-off • Better take-off  Better in-block ?

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