GHG Emissions Reductions Targets and the Role for TDM

1. GHG Emissions Reductions Targets and the Role for TDM Brian Hollingworth, IBI Group 2008 ACT Canada Conference, Halifax, Nova Scotia

2. Outline • Climate change: the role of transport • Strategies to reduce GHG emissions from transport • Case study: reducing emissions in the Toronto area • Conclusions

3. The Issue Today, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, representing the consensus of 1,500 scientists says: “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal.” “Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations.” “Continued GHG emissions at or above current rates would cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st century that would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20th century.” Therefore, we must stabilize concentrations of CO2 . How fast we act will determine the level, and the impact on the climate.

4. The Response Governments are responding: Kyoto EU, country-specific targets Federal, provincial, municipal targets – all different - Federal: 20% reduction from 2006 levels by 2020 - Ontario: 15% reduction from 1990 levels by 2020 - Toronto: 30% reduction from 1990 levels by 2020 Some are not sufficient to stabilize CO2 concentrations, but all are ambitious

5. The Reality

6. Driving Emissions • Transportation GHG emissions: • Are the fastest growing source of GHG emissions in the world • 32% increase since 1990 • Account for 27 percent of Canada’s total GHG emissions • Transportation-related GHG emissions are a major part of the global climate change problem and must be reduced

7. Breakdown of Trends 1991 = 100 Source: National Inventory Report 1990–2004, Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada

8. Transit improvements are necessary but not sufficient Relationship Between Auto and Transit Passenger-kilometres and GHG Reduction

9. Need to consider the full range of strategies Three types of GHG reduction strategies for transportation: Travel Behaviour: Reduce vehicle-kilometres travelled (km) Technology: Increasing energy efficiency of vehicles (L/km) Reduced reliance on carbon intensive energy: Decrease carbon content of fuels (kg CO2e/L) or use alternative energy sources

10. Travel Behaviour – Reduce VKT Reduce Trips Encourage work at home Facilitate walking and cycling Road and parking pricing Soft TDM measures (e.g., carsharing, ridematching, parking cash out) Improve public transit Shorter trips Land use strategies to promote more compact development Ensure activities are accessible locally (Schools, shopping, etc.) Local consumption

11. Technology Increasing energy efficiency of vehicles (L/km) Fuel efficiency standards Aerodynamic improvements, speed limiters, and anti-idling devices for trucks Policies to encourage purchase of low-emission vehicles (e.g., hybrids) and technologies

12. Reduce Use of Carbon Intensive Energy Reduce Carbon Intensity Targets for alternative fuel use Support development of distribution network for alternative fuels Encourage plug-in-hybrid vehicles (in combination with clean electricity)

13. Potential GHG Reductions Source: Hickman, R. and Banister, D. 2006. Looking Over the Horizon: Visioning and Backcasting for UK Transport Review

14. Case Study: Reducing Emissions in the GTHA 5.8 million people in 2001… 8.6 million in 2031 48% more people = 48% more trips, distances travelled, and emissions? What would it take to cut transportation GHG emissions in half by 2031 in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area?

15. Target-Based Planning Approach Establish a vision and targets and work backwards from there: • Establish baseline and set targets • Develop BAU and alternative transit/land use scenario • Forecast travel demand and emissions • Assess additional strategies to meet targets A B C D

16. Modelling Approach • Passenger Travel Demand: • 2006: Transportation Tomorrow Survey • 2031: MTO Travel Demand Forecasting Model for the Greater Golden Horseshoe • GHG Emissions: • Transport Canada Urban Transportation Emissions Calculator (UTEC) • “Well to Wheels”

17. Business-as-Usual Funded transit improvements Major Transit Investment Network of higher order transit lines across the region ~350 new km of commuter rail/express rail ~800 new km of metro/LRT/BRT Bring ¾ of population within 2km of rapid transit 2031 Scenarios • Places to Grow land use • Programmed highway improvements • 0.5% annual improvement in vehicle efficiency

18. Transit, Land Use, & TDM 21% Growth 4% Growth -6% Growth TDM 9.8 Mt Target = 6.9 Mt 2031 Major Transit Investment

19. Strategies to Meet the 9.8 Mt Gap Other Strategies (19%) Transit Investment & Compact Land Use (23%) Ecodriving Electric vehicles Travel restrictions …? Alternative Fuels (10%) Aggressive TDM (14%) 40% Improvement in Fuel Efficiency (34%)

20. Meeting targets will require system-wide changes Major transit investment will only hold the line on GHG emissions in the GTHA No silver bullet - we need to pursue lots of different strategies in tandem Future conditions will have a large impact on the success of individual strategies Each level of government has key roles to play Effect of enabling measures need to be considered: rising oil prices, carbon pricing/trading New infrastructure, fleet turnover take time – we need to start now

21. But reducing auto travel is still a key goal Reducing vehicle travel and using less oil are “no-regret” moves A “built in” reduced need to travel has long-term effects More efficient and resilient companies and households Lower costs to individuals – greater equity Lower costs to governments – reduced infrastructure needs Reduced human and financial costs from traffic injuries and deaths Cleaner air, less incidence of cardio-respiratory disease More flexibility to switch to alternate fuels

22. In Closing… Weave GHG reduction into all decision-making Pursue all possible strategies including TDM Think systems-wide: try to resolve several problems at a time; explore interconnections, unintended consequences and rebound effect Creating a culture of innovation and action must be the number one strategy THANK YOU FOR YOUR INTEREST.

23. Transit Scenarios

24. Transit, Land Use, & TDM