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The Role of UN-Energy in ensuring sustainable bioenergy development

The Role of UN-Energy in ensuring sustainable bioenergy development. UN-Energy side event 13 December 2007 Alexander Müller Assistant Director-General Natural Resources Management & Environment. Energy Consumption and Income are Linked.

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The Role of UN-Energy in ensuring sustainable bioenergy development

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  1. The Role of UN-Energy in ensuring sustainable bioenergy development • UN-Energy side event • 13 December 2007 • Alexander Müller • Assistant Director-General • Natural Resources Management & Environment

  2. Energy Consumption and Income are Linked 5 billion low-income people in countries with rapid economic growth rates

  3. How big is the market for biofuels? Energy production and potential, biofuels and land use 1.) Potential based on Schrattenholzer and Fischer, IIASA, 2000 2.) Based on IEA: Key energy statistics, 2006 3.) Derived from http://www.earth-policy.org/Updates/2005/Update49.htm, Earth Policy Institute

  4. How big is the market for biofuels? Energy production and potential, biofuels and land use 1.) Potential based on Schrattenholzer and Fischer, IIASA, 2000 2.) Based on IEA: Key energy statistics, 2006 3.) Derived from http://www.earth-policy.org/Updates/2005/Update49.htm, Earth Policy Institute

  5. How big is the market for biofuels? Energy production and potential, biofuels and land use 1.) Potential based on Schrattenholzer and Fischer, IIASA, 2000 2.) Based on IEA: Key energy statistics, 2006 3.) Derived from http://www.earth-policy.org/Updates/2005/Update49.htm, Earth Policy Institute

  6. Bioenergy supply in 2004 (according to IEA 2006)

  7. Share of energy from biomass and waste in total primary energy supply for countries with a share of 30% and above Source: Juergens (FAO) 2006 based on data from IEA 2006

  8. Bioenergy and Food Security

  9. The driving forces of demand to 2030 World population growth 12.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 9.0 0.6 0.5 Annual increments (billions) 6.0 Total population (billions) 0.4 0.3 3.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

  10. Food markets: drivers of the long-term outlook The driving forces of demand to 2030 Source: UN, World Population Assessment 2002

  11. Food markets: drivers of the long-term outlook The driving forces of demand to 2030 from 80 to 180 million people by 2050

  12. The nutrition transition to 2030 Food markets: Review and outlook to 2030

  13. Undernourished Developed market economies9 Countries in transition25 854 million (820 in developing countries) Sub-Saharan Africa206 Asia and Pacific524 Near East and North Africa38 212 million India 150 million China Latin America and Caribbean52 Where is land available?Where is the energy deficit?

  14. The world markets for agricultural produce World markets and export opportunities

  15. Bioenergy potential per region:different scenarios, year 2050 Exajoules/yr Source: Juergens and Mueller forthcoming 2007, based on data from WWI 2006)

  16. Bioenergy potential per type of biomass:different scenarios, year 2050 Exajoules/yr Source: Juergens and Mueller forthcoming 2007, based on data from Faaij 2006

  17. Cereal production and utilization Year-to-year change in cereal production

  18. FAO price indicesfor selected commodities(1998-2000=100) FAO food price index and CRB commodity and energy indices(1998-2000=100)

  19. Environment and Sustainable development

  20. Environmental, sustainability issues • Availability of land resources • Availability of water resources • Rapid land use change • Land rights and tenure • Effects of agro-chemicals • Loss of biodiversity • Greenhouse gas balances

  21. McClaren et al 2002 Process chain: Sorghum life cycle inputs Ensure environmental best practices at all stages of the biofuel process chain

  22. The competitiveness Competitiveness by feedstock Parity prices: Petrol–Crude oil – Ethanol Various feedstocks and farming/production systems 120 100 80 Crude, US$/bbl 60 40 20 0 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 Petrol, US$/l Gasoline-Crude US$ Cane Brazil, top producers Cane, Brazil, average Cassava, Thaioil, 2 mio l/d Maize, US Cassava, Thailand, OTC joint venture Palmoil, MPOB project Mixed feedstock Europe BTL: Synfuel/Sunfuel Josef Schmidhuber (2005)

  23. Die Bioenergiemärkte – Preiseffekte und Risiken Are EU tariffs on ethanol high enough? Tariffs, prices and production costs for Ethanol 0.6 0.5 P-cost tEU tEU tEU-40% tEU-40% tUS 0.4 tUS CIF US €/l 0.3 CIF EU FOB BRA 0.2 MP US Ct/l MP EU 0.1 0 Maize Maize Wheat Sugar cane Sugar beet EU BRA US

  24. UN-Energy as a forum and an advocate for ... • Bioenergy Charter? – Safeguards, Fair processes, Accountability, Advocacy, ... • Policy and legislative frameworks • Estimating national bioenergy potentials • Investment – commercial v.a.v. small-scale • Certification – flexible, cost effective, equitable for small-scale producers • Knowledge – best practices, data, information • Competing in international markets and with technological change

  25. Thank you

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