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Winter Outlook 2013-2014

Winter Outlook 2013-2014. Willamette Falls at Oregon City, December 1964. October 1962. Johnson Creek, 1961. OregonLive.com. Portland Snow, 1917. Old Oregon Trail Hwy near Meacham, 1923. photo courtesy ODOT. Andy Bryant National Weather Service Portland, OR. City of Portland Archives.

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Winter Outlook 2013-2014

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  1. Winter Outlook2013-2014 Willamette Falls at Oregon City, December 1964 October 1962 Johnson Creek, 1961 OregonLive.com Portland Snow, 1917 Old Oregon Trail Hwy near Meacham, 1923 photo courtesy ODOT Andy Bryant National Weather Service Portland, OR City of Portland Archives

  2. Overview • ENSO status and forecast • NOAA Climate Prediction CenterWinter Outlook • Local Research on ENSO and Precipitation • Prospects for Snow

  3. ENSO Status NINO 3.4 SST Anomaly • El Niño – Southern Oscillation NEUTRAL • Neutral conditions since Autumn 2012 El Niño Map showing NINO regions in Equatorial Pacific Neutral La Niña

  4. ENSO Projections Climate Prediction Center / International Research Institute for Climate and Society Consensus Probabilistic ENSO Forecast • Neutral conditions forecast to persist through this coming winter and spring • Trend is for slow increase in NINO3.4 SST for next several months

  5. Climate Prediction CenterOne-Month OutlookNovember 2013 Precipitation Temperature www.cpcpara.ncep.noaa.gov

  6. Climate Prediction CenterThree-Month OutlookNov 2013 – Jan 2014 Precipitation Temperature www.cpcpara.ncep.noaa.gov

  7. Climate Prediction CenterThree-Month OutlookJan – Mar 2014 Precipitation Temperature www.cpcpara.ncep.noaa.gov

  8. Coast Precipitation

  9. Willamette Valley

  10. Cascades

  11. ENSO Lowlands Snow Signal

  12. Portland Snowfall History Top 10 snowiest winters: 34.0” 1968-69 El Niño 24.2” 2008-09 ENSO Neutral 22.4” 1955-56 La Niña 20.3” 1959-60 ENSO Neutral 17.4” 1992-93 ENSO Neutral 16.3” 1979-80 ENSO Neutral 14.7” 1970-71 La Niña 13.4” 1964-65 ENSO Neutral 12.3” 2003-04 ENSO Neutral 12.0” 1994-95 El Niño 10.5” 1953-54 ENSO Neutral 60% were ENSO Neutral 20% were La Niña 20% were El Niño 1950-2011 data

  13. Portland Snowfall History 18 snow-shutout winters: (Trace or 0 snowfall) 8 were El Niño winters 7 were ENSO Neutral winters 3 were La Niña winter 44% were El Niño (25% total of all winters) 39% were ENSO Neutral (48% total of all winters) 17% were La Niña (27% total of all winters)

  14. In Summary • ENSO Neutral conditions are expected this winter. • Can expect this Fall/Winter to be (on average): • Temperature: Equal chances of above, below or near average • Precipitation: CPC outlook is for equal odds of above, below or near average, but local research leans below-average. • Snowpack: Below to near average, with above-average low-elevation snow • As always, we’re prepared for the any type of extreme weather Mother Nature sends our way in Oregon this winter!

  15. Thank You! weather.gov/portland mobile.weather.gov

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