MEETING THE CHALLENGE OF OUR TIME IN THE 21 ST CENTURY

1. MEETING THE CHALLENGE OF OUR TIME IN THE 21ST CENTURY Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of North Carolina, USA

2. CREATING PARADIGM SHIFTS THAT WILL ACCELERATE THE TRANSITION FROM BEING DISASTER PRONE TO BEING DISASTER RESILIENT

3. THE CHALLENGE OF THE 21ST CENTURY • Protecting and preserving PEOPLE and COMMUNITIES from the potential disaster agents of natural hazards

4. A SNAPHOT OF OUR WORLD • 7 billion people, and growing while… • Living and competing in an interconnected global economy, • Producing $60 trillion of products each year, and • Facing complex disasters every year that can adversely impact a community’s 3 S’s, 5E’s, and 1H.

5. THE 3 S’s • SAFETY (from the potential disaster agents of recurring natural hazards) • SECURITY • SUSTAINABILITY

6. THE FIVE E’s • ECONOMY • ENERGY • ENVIRONMENT • ECOLOGY • EDUCATION

7. THE 1 H • HEALTH CARE

8. A DISASTER is --- --- the set of failures that occur when three continuums: 1)  people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) recurring events (e.g., floods, earthquakes, ...,) intersect at a point in space and time, when and where the people and community are not ready.  

9. THE THREE CONTINUUMS OF EVERY DISASTER PEOPLE COMMUNITY RECURRING EVENTS (AKA the potential disaster agents of Natural Hazards, which are proof of a DYNAMIC EARTH)

10. FIVE INTER-CONNECTED WEAK-LINKS CAUSE DISASTERS UN--PREPARED UN—PROTECTED UN---WARNED UN--ABLE TO RESPOND UN--RESILIENT

11. Increasing morbidity, mortality, homelessness, and economic losses from recurring natural hazards striking non-disaster-resilient communities Threats related to global climate change Environmental degradation and pollution of air, water, and soil Endangerment and extinction of plant and animal life LIKELY CAUSES OF COMPLEX DISASTERS during THE 21ST CENTURY

12. Poverty Chronic hunger Health care needs Increasing risk of pandemic disease Large-scale migration of people Endangered plant and animal life Conflict and terrorism liKELY CAUSES OF COMPLEX DISASTERS during THE 21ST CENTURY

13. Before we realize it, we could share in an unnecessary and irreversible reduction in the quality of life on Planet Earth if we fail to design and implement a global strategy for disaster resilience. AN UNDESIRABLE LEGACY OF THE 21ST CENTURY

14. THE “BEST SOLUTION SET” IS THE FRAMEWORK OF DISASTER RESILIENCE • To anticipate and plan for the full spectrum of what can happen, and build capacity FOR preparedness, protection, early warning, emergency response, and recovery in every community. • To inform, educate, train, and buildequity in all sectors of the community,

15. Communities working strategically can implement a realistic set of scientific, technical, and political solutions to reach the elusive goal of disaster resilience --- within EXISTING administrative, legal, and economic constraints, --- NOW. WHEN YOU KNOW WHAT TO DO AND HOW TO DO IT, --- JUST DOIT!

16. THE ART AND SCIENCE OF CREATING A PARADIGM SHIFT FOR COMMUNITY DISASTER RESILIENCE ENCOMPASSES STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIPS INTEGRATION OF SCIENCE AND PUBLIC POLICY PREPAREDNESS, PROTECTION, EARLY WARNING, EM. RESPONSE, AND RECOVERY

17. FIVE PILLARS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE ARE INTERCONNECTED PREPAREDNESS AND EARLY WARNING PROTECTION ALL ELEMENTS ARE INTERRELATED RECOVERY EMERGENCY RESPONSE

20. THE GLOBAL AGENDA: COMMUNITY DISASTER RESILIENCE EXPERIENCES WITH PREPAREDNESS EXPERIENCES WITH PROTECTION GLOBAL BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE EXPAND PARTNERSHIPS FROM 1990 TO THE PRESENT (E.G., IDNDR, AND ISDR) EXPERIENCES WITH EMERGENCY RESPONSE EXPERIENCES WITH RECOVERY

21. FACTORS THAT FACILITATE PARADIGM SHIFTS • PUBLIC AWARENESS OF EACH PROBLEM AND THE BENEFIT/COSTS OF ITS SOLUTION SET. • A COMMON AGENDA PROMOTED BY PARTNERSHIPS THROUGHOUT THE WORLD • INCENTIVES FOR POLITICAL LEADERS AND SCIENTISTS TO ADOPT AND IMPLEMENT PUBLIC POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE.

22. CHANGES BASED ON A LARGER SOCIAL CONSTRUCT OF THE ISSUES POLICY CHANGE 1: FOCUS ON THE NATURE AND APPROPRIATENESS OF ACTIONS BY GLOBAL PARTNERS AND THE WAYS TO ENLIST SUPPORT AND RESOURCES FOR THE FIVE PILLARS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE.

23. CHANGES BASED ON A LARGER SOCIAL CONSTRUCT OF THE ISSUES POLICY CHANGE 2: FOSTER CHANGE BY INTEGRATING POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES FOR PREPAREDNESS, PROTECTION, EARLY WARNING, EMERGENCY RESPONSE, AND RECOVERY BASED ON EXISTING LEGAL MANDATES.

24. CHANGES BASED ON A LARGER SOCIAL CONSTRUCT OF THE ISSUES POLICY CHANGE 3: CREATE, ADJUST, AND REALIGN PARTNERSHIPS UNTIL YOU CAN SOLVE THE PROBLEMS FACED BY LOCAL COMMUN ITIES IN EVERY REGION.

25. Real and Near- Real Time Monitoring/Communication Seek out, Enlighten, and Enable “Partnerships” Enlighten Communities on Their Risks Vulnerability and Risk Characterization Transfer Ownership of the Knowledge Base Build Strategic Equity Through “MMA” Scenarios Engage Partners in MMA Learning Experiences Best Practices for Mitigation and Adaptation Close Gaps in Knowledge and Implementation Transfer Ownership of Emerging Technologies Situation Data Bases Multiply “Partnerships” by Regioal/global Twinning Move Towards A Disaster Intelligent Community Cause & Effect Relationships Update Knowledge Bases After Each MMA Scenario Anticipatory Actions for all Events and Situations Interfaces with all Real- and Near Real-Time Sources Gateways to a Deeper Understanding TOWARDS DISASTER RESILIENCE TURNING POINTS: Partnerships for Preparedness, Protection, Early Warning Emergency Response, and Recovery THE KNOWLEDGE BASE CAPACITY BUILDING CONTINUING EDUCATION

26. HAZARD MAPS • INVENTORY • VULNERABILITY • LOCATION • BEST POLICIES AND PRACTICES FOR: • PREPAREDNESS, EARLY. WARNING, PROTECTION • EM. RESPONSE • RECOVERY RISK ASSESSMENT COMMUNITY GOALS ACCEPTABLE RISK RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK DISASTER RESILIENCE YOUR COMMUNITY DATA BASES AND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS