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Commodity Weather Group, LLC

Commodity Weather Group, LLC. Energy Weather Summer Seminar Presentation Matt Rogers April 15, 2010. Today’s Agenda. Brief Intro Latest Summer Outlook Key Arguments (and Risks) Atlantic Hurricane Season. Brief Intro. Matt Rogers, President and Co-Founder of Commodity Weather Group

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Commodity Weather Group, LLC

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  1. Commodity Weather Group, LLC Energy Weather Summer Seminar Presentation Matt Rogers April 15, 2010

  2. Today’s Agenda • Brief Intro • Latest Summer Outlook • Key Arguments (and Risks) • Atlantic Hurricane Season

  3. Brief Intro • Matt Rogers, President and Co-Founder of Commodity Weather Group ~16 Years in Commodity Weather Support (Energy) • Commodity Weather Group, LLC • Started in April 2009 • Located in Bethesda, MD • Focus on Agriculture and Energy Commodities • 75+ Collective Years’ Experience in Consulting

  4. CWG Summer Outlook ~.4% warmer than running 10Y normal ~2% warmer than running 30Y normal ~6% warmer than 2009 (both JJA and MJJAS)

  5. Month-by-Month Main Themes Favor A Cool Start and a Hotter Finish Overall Best Chance for Most Frequent Heat is in the Pacific Northwest and Texas

  6. Key Arguments Solar Tropical Pacific AO January Tokyo?

  7. Solar 1955 1966 1977 1988 1998 2010

  8. BUT: Solar Split 1955: 6.64 1966: 6.84 1988: -2.04 1977: -17.21 1998: -22.08

  9. Tropical Pacific

  10. Closest North Pacific Fit April 3, 1969 April 3, 2010

  11. Arctic Oscillation 1969

  12. Arctic Oscillation Top AO Years Have Close Fit Pattern 1958 is Best Fit 1969 Second

  13. AO vs. ENSO

  14. January Clue

  15. What Could Go Wrong?

  16. What Could Go Wrong? The pattern type is similar, but the Midwest is warmer and Texas is much much warmer! Still not a big hot summer, but main anomalies are opposite of expectations. Big Hot Summer

  17. A New Clue?

  18. A Tokyo Trigger?

  19. A New Clue? Four of Five Hottest Chicago Summers were in Same Year as Relatively Cool Tokyo May Periods Four of Five Coolest Chicago Summers were in Same Year as Relatively Warm Tokyo May Periods Actually linked to a prevailing pattern in northeast Asia. Look for more info in Energy Weather blogs in May.

  20. Atlantic Tropics Gulf Major: Zero or One Upper Level Winds Not Expected to be as Favorable as 2005 in Gulf to Western Caribbean (2) Very Warm Atlantic Ocean May Favor Stronger Cape Verde Season (3) Late Season Timing Possible

  21. Commodity Weather Group Thank You

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