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THORPEX/NCEP Update

THORPEX/NCEP Update. Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director, NCEP. September 1, 2004. “Where America’s Climate and Weather Services Begin”. Overview. THORPEX Plans: Status NCEP Update – Focus on THORPEX Models Ensembles JCSDA Test Beds Summary. THORPEX Plans. Science Plan

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THORPEX/NCEP Update

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  1. THORPEX/NCEP Update Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director, NCEP September 1, 2004 “Where America’s Climate and Weather Services Begin”

  2. Overview • THORPEX Plans: Status • NCEP Update – Focus on THORPEX • Models • Ensembles • JCSDA • Test Beds • Summary

  3. THORPEX Plans • Science Plan • Accepted by International Core Steering Committee in December ’03 • Led by Mel Shapiro and Alan Thorpe • North American Plan • Ongoing • U.S. rep is David Parsons • Interagency and international • NOAA Plan • First draft complete • Led by Zoltan Toth; involves NOAA, NCAR, NASA, DoD/NRL, university participants, private sector

  4. THORPEX Plans (cont.) • THORPEX Implementation Plan (TIP) • Ongoing international effort • Led by David Rogers • Involves Zoltan Toth, David Parsons and Mel Shapiro from U.S. • Next meeting in Beijing (September ‘04) • Big Items • International ensemble forecast system • Connection with AMMA (05-07) • Connection with International Polar Year (07-08) field program • Connection with GEOSS

  5. NOAA SERVICE GOAL: ACCELERATE IMPROVEMENTS IN 3-14 DAY FORECASTSNOAA SCIENCE OBJECTIVE: REVOLUTIONIZE NWP PROCESS TRADITIONAL NWP Each discipline developed on its own Disjoint steps in forecast process Little or no feedback One-way flow of information Uncertainty in process ignored NEW NWP Sub-systems developed in coordination End-to-end forecast process Strong feedback among components Two-way interaction Error/uncertainty accounted for SOCIOEC SOCIOEC SYSTEM SYSTEM INTEGRATED, ADAPTIVE, USER CONTROLLABLE

  6. DIRECT LINK BETWEEN NOAA THORPEX SCIENCE AND IMPLEMENTATION PLAN (NTSIP) ANDTHORPEX INTERNATIONAL SCIENCE PLAN & THORPEX IMPLEMENTATION PLAN (TIP) TIP TIP – “OBSERVING SYSTEM” TIP – “DATA ASSIMILATION…” NTSIP SOCIOEC SYSTEM CROSS-CUTTING ACTIVITIES THORPEX GLOBAL ENSEMBLE (TIGGE) TIP – “SOCIAL & ECONOMIC APPLICATIONS” TIP – “PREDICTABILITY & DYNAMICAL PROCESSES”

  7. NOAA THORPEX ORGANIZATIONAL CHART - LINKS NTEC MEMBERS J. Hayes, D-OST/NWS J. Kimpel, OAR M. Colton, D-ORA/NESDIS NOAA Senior Management USWRP Co-Chairs: L. Uccellini & T. Killeen ICSC, IPO Chair: M. Beland US Rep.: L. Uccellini CHAIR L. Uccellini, D-NCEP/NWS NOAA Line Offices STAFF: Z. Toth, NTSIC Chair M. Ralph & F. Toepfer, PPBES NTSIC MEMBERS Obs. Systems: J. Daniels (ORA), D. Emmitt (SWA), C. Velden (U. Wisc/SIMMS) Data Assim: C. Bishop (NRL), L.-P. Riishojgaard (NASA/JCSDA) Forecasting: J. Hansen (MIT), G. Kiladis (AL), S. Koch (FSL), J. Whitaker/T. Hamill (CDC) SA Applications: R. Morss (NCAR), M. Ralph (ETL) NOAA Res. Labs: AL, CDC, ETL, FSL, ORA ISSC Co-Chairs: M. Shapiro & A. Thorpe NASSC Co-Chairs: D. Parsons & P. Gauthier CHAIR Z. Toth,EMC/NCEP NOAA Joint Inst.: JCSDA, CIMMS, SIP NWS-NCEP Operational Implementations F. Toepfer Consistent with D. Rogers Memo of 7/9/2003, establishing NTEC & NTSIC International Forecasting Activities NOAA THORPEX Administrative Assistant

  8. NOAA THORPEX RELATED ACTIVITIES • Based on NOAA THORPEX Science & Implementation Plan • Coordinated with US/NA/International activities - TIP • ONGOING APPLIED RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT • PEER REVIEWED RESEARCH GRANT PROGRAM * • TRANSITION FROM RESEARCH TO OPERATIONS* • REAL TIME TESTING (DEMONSTRATION PROJECTS)* • INFRASTRUCTURE* • MANAGEMENT

  9. NOAA THORPEX RELATED ACTIVITIES • PEER-REVIEWED RESEARCH GRANT PROGRAM: • Funded through NOAA THORPEX AO • Individual research studies • Collaborative projects • Balanced among 4 major research areas • CURRENT STATUS: • 12 grants distributed in competitive NOAA THORPEX 2004 AO process • 1) Observing System: 1 satellite & 1 in-situ study • 2) Data Assimilation: Ensemble-based DA inter-comparison project • (4 studies, CDC, UM, NCAR, NRL, CS) • Adaptive obs (1 study) • 3) Forecast System: Model errors & ensembles (2 studies) • Adaptive modeling procedures (1 study) • 4) Socioeconomic Applic.: 1 study (value of weather forecasts) • Cross-cutting Activities: 1 study (OSSE method development) • PLAN:Initiate new THORPEX projects through NOAA Grants Program • Areas with special need: Model errors in DA & ensemble forecasting • Socioeconomic forecast applications (including stat. post-processing)

  10. NOAA THORPEX RELATED ACTIVITIES TRANSITION FROM RESEARCH TO OPERATIONS Establish link with operations for each research study/project Provide partner within NOAA for path to operations Communicate operational requirements Provide data/software access/support Offer science consultation/advice Facilitate collaboration/coordination among studies / within projects Preferred form of work is through collaborative projects Establish model errors & ensemble forecasting project? Fund through set-aside fraction of research grant amount(20-33% of grants) Currently only limited resources (100k for ATREC-related work in FY04) Need to expand in order to link with all research grant studies/projects

  11. NOAA THORPEX RELATED ACTIVITIES REAL TIME TESTING (DEMONSTRATION PROJECTS) GOAL:Test, demonstrate, and evaluate the new forecast process with integrated, adaptive, and user controlled elements TYPES OF PROJECTS(in hierarchical order): THORPEX Observing System Tests (TOST) Limited scope, focus on observing system THORPEX Regional Campaigns (TREC) Test integrated forecast process THORPEX Demonstration Projects As TREC but linked with other programs THORPEX Global Campaign Major demonstration near end of program EXAMPLES: AMMA (2005-07) Life cycle of tropical storms 2006, additional observations; test impact of data on NWP skill (low/mod. cost) IPY (2007-09) Atmosph. component of IPY, obs. system test, polar-extratropical links 06/07 test new obs platforms (lower cost); 07/08 full demo period, higher cost Olympics (’08,etc) Emphasis on social/economic applications GEOSS (10yrs) Atmosph. component in GEOSS, prototype for integrated use of data

  12. NOAA THORPEX RELATED ACTIVITIES INFRASTRUCTURE Operational Test Center (OTC; planned jointly withJCSDA) Ensure access of researchers to operational forecast environment a) Needed to support research grant program (research to operations transition) b) Leverage off JCSDA Test Facility (with broader focus, incl. forecasting/applications beyond DA) Jointly funded with JCSDA - Basic funding plus contributions from research grants c) Provide computer facilities (on backup computer?), operatnl software, & technical support d) Accessible through THORPEX & other peer reviewed grant programs THORPEX Global Ensemble Prediction System (TIGGE or TGEPS) Expand from successful implementation of NAEFS to include UK Metoffice for creation of multinational component of future TGEPS Basic forecast support for demonstration projects, socio-economic applications, etc North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS, jointly with Canadians) THORPEX Data Base (TDB) Establish THORPEX data base for national/international research Store observational, numerical analysis, forecast, and application data a) Establish & provide access to archive of operational and research data bases(NOMAD) b) Data types: Observations, re-analysis, ensemble, applications, demo projects, etc c) Funding through basic support plus contributions from research grants Telecommunications Transfer huge data sets for research & demo projects - GLORIAD

  13. BUDGET HISTORY FY02 – 150k – all from USWRP funds 50K: Aerosonde test 100K: Partial support for Shapiro as ISSC co-Chair FY03 – 1.04M – all from USWRP funds 242K: Shapiro support (incl travel) and obs. focal point (Schlatter) 250K: Societal Impact Program (NCAR) 200K: THORPEX IPO and the IOC (150K+50K) 150K: Lenny Smith proposal on utilities' use of probabilistic forecasts 100K: To AOC for NA TRec FY04 –2.4M – 1.2M from THORPEX, 1.2M from USWRP funds 1150K: THORPEX proposals 206K: Shapiro salary (171k) and travel (35k) 320K: NCAR Collaborative Program on the Soc. Impacts and Economic Benefits of Weather Info 220K: THORPEX IPO and IOC (170K+50K) – US Rep. to ICSC does not agree with this allocation 250K: To AOC for NA TRec 100K To NCEP for NA TRec analysis

  14. BUDGET RECOMMENDATIONS – FY05 • FY05 THORPEX Funding level (tentative) – $1.3 from FY04, plus $1M from FY05 increase • 1) Research Grant Program: • Continue funding 11 of 12 proposals from FY04 $1050k^ (-75k) • Support unsolicited research (ens.-based DA, forecast appls, etc) $300k * • 2) Transition from Research to Operations • Interface with NWP research grant studies (1 contractor at EMC) $100k * • Subtotal $1.45M • 3) Infrastructure: • Operational Test Center (1 contractor at JCSDA) $100k * • NAEFS/TIGGE (2 contractors at NCEP) $200k^ (-100k) • THORPEX Data Base support (ETL/NCAR?) $100k * • Subtotal $400k • 4) Management: • WMO Trust Fund / IPO (partial support) $150k • Co-Chair of ISSC (M. Shapiro, partial support) $150k^ (-75k) • Overhead (NOAA THORPEX management, travel, etc) $150k * • Subtotal $450k • TOTAL $2.3 • NOTES: • 300k not enough for viable AO: • 200k supplemental funds would make it possible to issue new AO • with emphasis on model errors & socioeconomic applications • If 1M increase is cut: Drop activities with * • Reduce funding level for ^ with amount in parenthesis

  15. THORPEX Linkages • Developing Linkages to the IPY • 07/08 field program (NA winter) • IPY focus on poles • THORPEX focus on tropics and middle latitudes • Hypotheses being developed related to forecast sensitivity to polar regions and/or Pacific Ocean and/or tropics • Mapping into GEOSS • Ongoing – THORPEX components (observations, data assimilation, modeling) map right into GEOSS

  16. NOAA THORPEX RELATED ACTIVITIES ONGOING APPLIED RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT: Funded through base & other projects(not through THORPEX) THORPEX needs to build stronger links with thesefor full mutual benefit Observing System: ETL, NESDIS/ORA, FSL, AL;Link w. GEOSS Data Assimilation: JCSDA, EMC, CDC, FSL Forecast System: EMC, FSL, CDC, AL(Environmental Modeling Program) Socioeconomic Applications: ETL, CDC,SIP(Collabor. w. NCAR), EMC Cross-cutting Activities: Link with NAEFS, IPY, EMC, ETL, EM

  17. NCEP Update Focus on THORPEX-related Items • WRF implementation • NCEP running test with CMI and 2 dynamic cores • IOC for WRF CMI with the NMM by end of Sept, 2004

  18. NCEP Update Focus on THORPEX-related Items • ESMF Status • Have successfully coupled NCEP global analysis with NCAR-NASA fvCAM using ESMF • Will couple GFS with GFDL MOM4 ocean model using ESMF by end of 2004

  19. NCEP Update Focus on THORPEX-related Items • North American Ensemble Forecast System • Effort to leverage international resources to increase number of ensemble members • Canada and U.S. to share global ensemble runs • IOC in September to consist of 40 NCEP runs (10 runs x 4/day) and 16 Canadian runs (eventually will expand to 32) for a total of 56 • First step in a 3 year effort • Will include output from the UK Met Office within 18 months

  20. The NCEP coupled Climate Forecast System (CFS) (to be implemented August 24, 2004) • Global Forecast System 2003 (GFS03) • T62 in horizontal; 64 layers in vertical • Recent upgrades in model physics • Solar radiation (Hou, 1996) • cumulus convection (Hong and Pan, 1998) • gravity wave drag (Kim and Arakawa, 1995) • cloud water/ice (Zhao and Carr,1997) 1.Atmospheric component 2. Oceanic component • GFDL MOM3 (Pacanowski and Griffies, 1998) • 1/3°´1° in tropics; 1°´1° in extratropics; 40 layers • Quasi-global domain (74°S to 64°N) • Free surface 3. Coupled model • Once-a-day coupling • Sea ice extent taken as observed climatology

  21. Composite

  22. Most Recent CFS Latest run shows a more moderate warming Latest CPC Forecast: weak El Nino conditions are expected to develop within the next three months

  23. NCEP Update Focus on THORPEX-related Items • Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation

  24. PARTNERS NOAA/NCEP Environmental Modeling Center NOAA/OAR Office of Weather and Air Quality NASA/Goddard Global Modeling & Assimilation Office US Navy NOAA/NESDIS Oceanographer of the Navy, Office of Naval Research (NRL) Office of Research & AF Director of Weather AF Weather Agency Applications US Air Force JCSDA Partners

  25. Organizational Structure NASA NOAA DOD Joint Oversight Board of Directors: NOAA NCEP: L. Uccellini (Chair) Goddard ESD: F. Einaudi NOAA ORA: M. Colton NOAA OAR: J. Gaynor Navy: S. Chang, R. McCoy USAF: J. Lanicci, M. Farrar Advisory Panel Rotating Chair Joint Center Staff Center Director: John LeMarshall Executive Directors: Stephen Lord - NWS Fuzhong Weng - NESDIS L. P. Riishogjaard – NASA Pat Phoebus - NRL Technical Liaisons: DAO – D. Dee EMC – J. Derber GMAO – M. Rienecker OAR – A. Gasiewski ORA – D. Tarpley Navy – N. Baker USAF – M. McAtee Program Support: Ada Armstrong George Ohring (NESDIS) Science Steering Committee

  26. JCSDA Road Map (2002 - 2010) By 2010, a numerical weather prediction community will be empowered to effectively assimilate increasing amounts of advanced satellite observations The radiances can be assimilated under all conditions with the state-of-the science NWP models Resources: NPOESS sensors ( CMIS, ATMS…) GOES-R OK Deficiency The CRTM includes scattering & polarization from cloud, precip and surface Advanced JCSDA community-based radiative transfer model, Advanced data thinning techniques The radiances from advanced sounders will be used. Cloudy radiances will be tested under rain-free atmospheres, and more products (ozone, water vapor winds) are assimilated AIRS, ATMS, CrIS, VIIRS, IASI, SSM/IS, AMSR, more products assimilated Science Advance A beta version of JCSDA community-based radiative transfer model (CRTM) transfer model will be developed, including non-raining clouds, snow and sea ice surface conditions Improved JCSDA data assimilation science The radiances of satellite sounding channels were assimilated into EMC global model under only clear atmospheric conditions. Some satellite surface products (SST, GVI and snow cover, wind) were used in EMC models AMSU, HIRS, SSM/I, Quikscat, AVHRR, TMI, GOES assimilated Pre-JCSDA data assimilation science Radiative transfer model, OPTRAN, ocean microwave emissivity, microwave land emissivity model, and GFS data assimilation system were developed 2002 2003 2008 2009 2010 2004 2005 2007

  27. JCSDA FY03-04 Major Projects • JCSDA is funding 18 extramural research projects to develop the state of-the-art satellite data assimilation system (e.g. uses of cloudy radiances from advanced satellite instruments, uses of satellite snow and vegetation products) • Preparation for uses of advanced satellite data such as METOP (IASI/AMSU/HSB), DMSP (SSM/IS) and EOS (Aqua AIRS, AMSR-E) • NCEP global data assimilation system implemented into NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) forecast system • JCSDA community-based radiative transfer model • Snow and sea ice emissivity models for improving uses of satellite microwave sounding data over high latitudes • Impact studies of POES AMSU, EOS AIRS, DMSP SSMIS, MODIS and COSMIC on NWP through EMC parallel experiments

  28. Recent Accomplishments of the JCSDA • Land emissivity model tested in NCEP operational models • Positive impacts with AMSU data over land (May,2002) • Operational implementation (October, 2002) • New Data used in NCEP operational models • SSM/I, TRMM microwave imager precipitation estimates • SSM/I, AMSU cloud liquid water • GOES-10 IR radiances • QuikSCAT data ( ~ 5 to 15% improvement in 10 m winds) • AIRS Assessment • AIRS data examined at several intervals over the course of one year • Initial tests indicate neutral impact in most forecast skill measures, slight positive impact in others, focused on 254 channels out of 2378 • Full data assimilation implementation scheduled for 1st Quarter FY05 • MODIS winds • Slight positive impact; implementation 1st Quarter FY05

  29. NCEP Update Focus on THORPEX-related Items NCEP Test Beds • Within NCEP • Joint Hurricane Test Bed (USWRP) • Hazardous Weather Test Bed (NOAA/OAR/NWS base) • Aviation Test Bed (FAA) • Affiliated with NCEP • WRF Developmental Test Bed (NCAR/FSL) • Being developed • Hydrometeorological Test Bed (USWRP) • Climate Test Bed (OGP) • WRF Operational Test Bed (TBD;NWS)

  30. Summary • THORPEX planning is ongoing • Linked to NOAA PPBES • Field programs being linked to AMMA (05-07), IPY (07-08) • Attempting to balance THORPEX components: research, operational transitions, societal impact • NCEP components being aligned with THORPEX plans – more needs to be done (e.g., Test Bed activities) • Several Issues • Reallocation vs “new” money • Climate-weather linkage in THORPEX

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