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Climate Change and Agriculture in the Great Lakes Region

Climate Change and Agriculture in the Great Lakes Region. Potential Impacts of Climatic Variability and Change Jeffrey A. Andresen Dept. of Geography Michigan State University. Climate Change and Agricultural Productivity. Crop, forage productivity and production costs

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Climate Change and Agriculture in the Great Lakes Region

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  1. Climate Change and Agriculture in the Great Lakes Region Potential Impacts of Climatic Variability and Change Jeffrey A. Andresen Dept. of Geography Michigan State University

  2. Climate Change andAgricultural Productivity • Crop, forage productivity and production costs • Changing temperature, precipitation • CO2 enrichment • Occurrence of extremes

  3. Climate Change andAgricultural Productivity • Soil suitability • Soil Erosion • Oxidation of organic matter

  4. Climate Change andAgricultural Productivity • Livestock productivity and production cost • Animal mortality • Feed conversion rates • Rates of gain • Milk production • Conception rates

  5. Climate Change andAgricultural Productivity • Irrigation water supply • Changes in precipitation frequency and totals • Changes in groundwater recharge rates • Changes in nonagricultural usage

  6. Annual trends (yr-1) for selected simulated variables, soybean, 1895-1996 * Trend significant at a=0.05 level

  7. Projected Changes in Climate: Great Lakes Region • While considerable differences and uncertainty exist, the majority of future climate simulations suggest a warmer and wetter climate across the region.

  8. Estimated changes in national crop production in 2030 relative to 2000 (Reilly et al., 2001)

  9. Ratios of GCM-projected future and POR historical scenario crop yields averaged over all stations

  10. Simulated Historical and Projected Future Growing Season and Water Balance for Maize, Bay City, MI

  11. Agricultural strategies for coping with climate change • Adaptation • Learn to change, adapt • Mitigation • Reduction of carbon and other GHG • Carbon sequestration • Production of fuels/energy from biomass/animal waste • Reduction of CH4 and N2O • Use of alternative energy sources in production

  12. Probability Distribution of Simulated Dryland Double Crop Soybean Yields by Planting DateAdrian, MI, 1895-2000

  13. Probability Distribution of Simulated Irrigated Double Crop Soybean Yields by Planting DateAdrian, MI, 1895-2000

  14. Summary • A changing climate leads to many potential challenges for agricultural production systems. • Observed climate has become wetter and cloudier in the Great Lakes Region, especially during the last 50 years. • The single most important climatological variable associated with crop yields regionally is precipitation. Growing season length and GDD accumulation were relatively more important at northern study sites.

  15. Summary (continued) • The warmer and wetter climate suggested by the many GCM projections for our region would suggest yield increases for many crops. Yields of some crops in the region might decline. • A significant portion of any future yield increases will be associated with CO2 enrichment. • Recent research results suggest greater agronomic potential for northern sections of the region, even with less suitable soils. • More research is needed, especially regarding indirect impacts of climate change and extreme events.

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