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Does Below Normal Fall and Winter Snowfall Influence Spring and Summer Weather?

This study by Michael Mathews from NOAA NWS Bismarck focuses on the influence of below normal snowfall during fall and winter on the subsequent spring and summer weather conditions in North Dakota. Analyzing data from Bismarck, Minot, Jamestown, and Williston, statistical correlations were calculated using snowfall data from September to February. Findings reveal that below normal snowfall does not significantly relate to spring and summer weather patterns, including temperature and precipitation trends, contradicting common assumptions about seasonal weather impacts.

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Does Below Normal Fall and Winter Snowfall Influence Spring and Summer Weather?

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  1. Does Below Normal Fall and Winter SnowfallInfluence Spring and Summer Weather? Michael Mathews NOAA NWS Bismarck, ND

  2. For this study • Focus is on snowfall so far and what that means for upcoming spring and summer conditions. • Statistical correlations were calculated using snowfall for the September through February period (meteorological fall and winter). • Locations used were Bismarck, Minot, Jamestown, and Williston. • Significant gaps in Dickinson data excluded its consideration from the study.

  3. Correlations were drawn against the following: • March snowfall • April snowfall • Spring • Snowfall • Precipitation • Average temperature • Summer • Precipitation • Average temperature

  4. Notes on Correlations • This function gives values between -1 and 1. • Values near zero → no correlation. • Values closer to -1 or 1 → strongly related. • Positive (negative) values imply drier and/or cooler (wetter and/or warmer).

  5. Data set definitions: • Overall– Correlation performed using the entiredata set. • Below – Correlation performed using below normal snowfall periods. • Much Below– Correlation performed using only significantly below normal periods. • Only the 17% least snowy fall and winter periods considered (i.e., 1 standard deviation below average snowfall).

  6. BISMARCK WILLISTON

  7. MINOT JAMESTOWN

  8. In Conclusion • Snowfall from September through February at these sitesis not related to weather for the spring or summer. • A complementary study using a different method also found that no relationship exists. • In general, similar results were found for above normal and much above normal fall and winter snowfall periods.

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