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Lawrence Haddad IDS

Dominant thinking on international development: What have the past 24 months told us about 5 assumptions?. Lawrence Haddad IDS. What is special about the past 24 months?. Has systemic crisis has become the new normal? Volatility Fragility Incertitude.

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Lawrence Haddad IDS

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  1. Dominant thinking on international development: What have the past 24 months told us about 5 assumptions? Lawrence Haddad IDS

  2. What is special about the past 24 months? • Has systemic crisis has become the new normal? • Volatility • Fragility • Incertitude

  3. Why ask whether current development thinking is fit for purpose? • Crises • Rich country origin - obligation • Systemic in origin – not idiosyncratic • Impacts - global and lasting • Unforeseen in terms of “ferocity”- QEII • Not clear if we are any less vulnerable to future shocks • Some political space, although shrinking

  4. The 5 Assumptions • economic growth is typically a good thing for long term poverty reduction • the West is the starting point for thinking about international development • economics should be the dominant discipline in the policy discourse • Collier’s bottom billion is where international development cooperation should be focussed • the international development evidence base is growing stronger

  5. 1. Economic growth is typically a good thing for long term poverty reduction India: 1993-2005

  6. Growth: highly variable effects on • Poverty • Growth by sector • Growth by inequality • Impacts on ecological footprints • Wellbeing • But there are choices

  7. 2. the West is the starting point for thinking about international development

  8. 3. Economics should be the dominant discipline in the policy discourse • Krugman: don’t mistake beauty for truth • Skidelsky: irreducible uncertainties • Collier: treatment of future generations • Wade: neoclassical monoculture means we are not methods resilient within economics but • Halsey-Rogers: mostly economists working outside the development industry who are divorced from reality

  9. 4: Collier’s bottom billion is where international development cooperation should be focussed

  10. 5. The international development evidence base is growing stronger • We could not measure the impact of the crisis on poverty • Is internal validity crowding out external validity? • How to bring in non-typical knowledge?

  11. Conclusions • Last 24 months an especially good time to test assumptions • Growth—view it like technology • West is best—hard to escape, need mechanisms to avoid the original sin • Economics—privileged position means checks and balances • Development cooperation—GDP traps? • Evidence—standing on or slipping off the shoulders of giants?

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