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Rethinking Survey Research: A Critique of Total Error Models in Census Data Analysis

In this discussion, Robert E. Fay from the U.S. Census Bureau presents a critical analysis of the total error models used in census data, particularly in the 1990 and 2000 decennial censuses. Fay argues that these models fail due to inadequacies in scientific communication and advocates for a more collaborative approach between statisticians and behavioral scientists. He emphasizes the importance of "fine-grained" analysis in research reporting and suggests that census data analysis should model its reporting practices on hard sciences for more clarity and effectiveness.

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Rethinking Survey Research: A Critique of Total Error Models in Census Data Analysis

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Presentation Transcript

  1. Discussion: Play-Acting at Science? Robert E. Fay U.S. Census Bureau

  2. Disclaimer My written discussion advocates specific directions for survey research. Disclaimer: My discussion represents my views and not necessarily those of the Census Bureau.

  3. General points My written comments are general and not specific to Saris’ talk I argue against quantified total error models at this point (and possibly ever) Part of my criticism stems from my study of scientific communication and its importance to hard science

  4. The past I comment on the total error modeling of the decennial census undercount in the 1990 and 2000 census, based on its failure of scientific communication

  5. Future directions I encourage more active collaboration of statisticians and behavioral scientists – example: mathematical biology APS as a model for some of the behavioral scientists I want to involve

  6. Future directions I encourage what I call more “fine-grained” analysis. I provide two examples published in Science. Some talks presented today exemplify that direction. I would like to see the reporting of research results more closely modeled on the hard sciences

  7. Written remarks Note: These transparencies touch on a few points from more extensive written remarks. You may contact me for the written version. robert.e.fay.iii@census.gov

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