1. Outline for today’s class • Review of midterm evaluation feedback • Readings – takehome messages • Relative effectiveness paper assignment • How to analyze data • Negotiation material will be covered on Thursday

2. Points from midterm evaluation of teaching • More visuals/videos • Small group discussions, including on papers • Blackboard discussion groups? Vote? • Takehomes from readings • Outline class sessions at beginning of class • Pizza party every class

3. Readings – Takehome messages • Sprinz and Vaahtoranta – will be reviewing extensively in class but • Takehome message: positions states take in negotiations (the DV) are determined by two IVs: the costs states face to take action to protect the environment (abatement costs) and the benefits they receive if the environment is protected (ecological vulnerability) • Betsill and Corell show: • Need to clarify research question – WHAT is influence? • Evidence of NGO influence • Use of process tracing AND counterfactuals • Building on work of prior others

4. Discussion paper next weekRelative Effectiveness • Fully described in assignment packet • Goals of exercise • Compare problem effect/effectiveness in light of differences in problem structure – a REALLY hard thing to think about • Practice THINKING about graphing • Practice GRAPHING • Lay foundation for Treaty Assignment 2

5. Working with Datafor Final Paper • Basic Goal: • Compare regulated behavior to otherwise-similar non-regulated behavior to see if they are different • If they aren’t different, there’s nothing to explain • If they are, try to exclude other explanations, leaving the treaty as only remaining explanation • 3 Ways To Get the Initial Comparison • Use 1, 2, or 3 of them

6. Data Analysis Strategies, aka:“How to Drink from a Firehose” • Determine ideal DV before looking at data • Draw desired graph with glitter pens– years, lines included, success example • Identify best indicators you have available • Compare regulated/non-regulated behavior • Actors: Memb/non-memb • Activity: Reg’d/non-reg’d activity • Location: Reg’d/non-reg’darea

7. Simplify your data!! • Create columns for reg/d non-reg’d • Focus on most important indicators • Focus on countries most responsible • Compare average of country groups • Don’t do too much on one graph • Normalize data between countries by indexing

8. Pesticides: Raw Data

9. Pesticides: Normalized by Population

10. Pesticides: Normalized by Relevant Activity

11. Possible Comparison #1:Members/Non-members • Members (regulated actors) to non-members (non-regulated actors), • Members vs. non-members after treaty • Treaty members before/after treaty starts

12. Possible Comparison #2:Regulated/Non-regulated Activity • Members regulated activity to members non-regulated activity • Catch of regulated yellowfin tuna vs. non-regulated bluefin tuna • Sulfur dioxide pollution vs. carbon monoxide pollution

13. Possible Comparison #3:Regulated/Non-regulated Location • Members in regulated location to members in non-regulated location • Catch of yellowfin tuna in regulated area (Indian Ocean) vs. non-regulated area (Western Pacific) • Pollution of regulated river vs. pollution of non-regulated river

14. Fisheries Data • From Excel Spreadsheet