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Alexandre Kossoy Philippe Ambrosi

Alexandre Kossoy Philippe Ambrosi. Overall Market showed resilience. (in Billion US$). 144. 135. 65. 31. 11. 0.7. EU ETS Allowances. 118.5. Allowances up, offsets down. (in Billion US$). +1000%. Assigned Amount Units. RGGI. JI. 2.0. 2.2. .35. -33%. +626%. CDM.

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Alexandre Kossoy Philippe Ambrosi

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  1. Alexandre Kossoy Philippe Ambrosi

  2. Overall Market showed resilience (in Billion US$) 144 135 65 31 11 0.7

  3. EU ETS Allowances 118.5 Allowances up, offsets down (in Billion US$) +1000% Assigned Amount Units RGGI JI 2.0 2.2 .35 -33% +626% CDM SecondaryCDM 2.7 17.5 +18% -59% Chicago Climate Exchange .05 Voluntary New South Wales Certificates .12 .34

  4. EU ETS: mainstreamed in the EU Long Phase II with lower industrial activities; (-11% emissions in 2009) EUA sell-off raises cash in credit-tight environment Haunted by challenges, swift response EUA, secondary CER & primary CER prices (€ per tCO2e, strip) EUAs sCERs pCERs

  5. CDM & JI Market Value Halved Activity declined markedly reduced compliance needs less origination by intermediaries competition with AAUs uncertainty on post-2012 rules Price declined too, but did not collapse interest in sound and viable projects How long will CDM & JI continue to catalyze low-carbon investment? volume(MtCO2e) price(US$/tCO2e)

  6. CDM & JI Buyers 2009

  7. Who’s selling ? 2009 (share of volumes)

  8. CDM Sectors 2009

  9. Low Residual Demand • 2012 demand down 25%to 1.22 billion tCO2e • 1.18 billion tCO2e contracted • 1.02 billion CERs & ERUs contracted (risk-adjusted) • 163 million AAUs contracted • Not all have purchased what they need: • residual demand of 230 MtCO2e Large post-2012 headroom under EU Package (and other initiatives)… 2,127 MtCO2e AAU 230 MtCO2e, mostly from EU governments 1,222 MtCO2e 1,181 MtCO2e CDM & JI AAU CDM & JI Contracted (nominal) Contracted (risk-adjusted) KM Demand2008-12

  10. Navigating a bottom-up, fragmented carbon market After E. Fages, 2010 • Low liquidity and inefficiencies without fungibility across regimes • Long maturity time with large capacity needs • Stop-gap solution while international negotiations do not pick up • Powerful, bottom-up drive leading to broader local acceptance and participation

  11. Full report available atwww.carbonfinance.org Thank you

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