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Understanding Earthquake Uncertainties: Implications for Hazard Assessment and Modeling

This exploration focuses on the uncertainties in earthquake science and their critical role in testing hypotheses and assessing seismic hazards. It discusses the relationship between seismic moment rate and tectonic moment rate, the limitations of fault size on earthquake magnitude, and the quasi-periodic nature of seismic events. Insights into postseismic deformation and stress relaxation processes reveal how variabilities in slip rate affect hazard modeling. The Gutenberg-Richter distribution and the Poisson process are highlighted, underscoring the significance of random occurrences in earthquake behavior over extended geological time scales.

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Understanding Earthquake Uncertainties: Implications for Hazard Assessment and Modeling

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Presentation Transcript

  1. Why uncertainties matter • Science: testing hypotheses • Seismic moment rate = tectonic moment rate • Fault size limits earthquake size • Earthquakes are quasi-periodic (or clustered) • Postseismic deformation reveals stress relaxation process • Practice (e.g. seismic hazard) • Models sample distribution of data; uncertainty generally increases hazard • Uncertainties used in weighting model components • Respect

  2. Variability of slip rate due to random earthquake occurrence David D. Jackson Corliss Sio UCLA

  3. Model of fault slip by random earthquakes • Gutenberg Richter 6.0 – 8.5 • Uniform random times (Poisson process) • Uniform random moment centroids on 1200 km fault • Length, width, slip all proportional to M1/3 • All events break surface

  4. The Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency distribution Number of events greater than magnitude 5 is about 10 times the number greater than 6, etc.

  5. Conclusions • Gutenberg-Richter, Poissonian earthquakes produce record similar to observed. • Expect spatially variable slip rate due to random occurrence of quakes • Expect temporal variations in slip rate due to random earthquake occurrence, significant for up to 10,000 years.

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