Climate Change and Food Security

1. Climate Change and Food Security Adapting to Climate Change City of Rossland May 11, 2010

2. Food Security • “A community enjoys food security when all people, at all times, have access to nutritious, safe, personally acceptable and culturally appropriate foods, produced in ways that are environmentally and socially just.” • Four Dimensions to food security: • Food availability • Food accessibility • Food stability • Food utilization

3. Food Systems • Food Security must be considered through a Food Systems Lens, which includes: • food production • food processing and packaging • food distribution and retailing and • food consumption • Food systems are highly complex and globalized - in assessing climate change and food security it is not sufficient to analyze domestic production

4. Climate Change and Food Security • Types of impacts - climate change will likely have: • Direct impacts - on plant and animal growth and food processing and distribution networks • Indirect impacts - on social, economic and political structures • Timing of impacts • Some now, some later • Some gradual, some sudden • Certainty of impacts • Models are highly uncertain

5. Direct Impacts of Climate Change • Increased CO2 Concentrations in Atmosphere • CO2 fertilization effect may increase crop productivity • Ocean productivity could decline due to acidification • Higher Temperatures • Longer growing seasons and increased productivity in high latitudes as long as temperature increases do not exceed 3° • Crop losses and declines in productivity in low latitudes • Unpredictable effects in lakes and oceans • Less winter kill but increased thermal stress for livestock • Possible disruption of transportation lines due to wildfires

6. Direct Impacts of Climate Change (continued) • Changesin Precipitation • Reduction in arable land in areas with decreased precipitation • Challenges capturing water in areas with increased or unchanged precipitation • Declines in aquaculture in areas of decreased precipitation • Pests and Diseases • Little knowledge at this point • Earlier spring activity, greater winter survival, and expansion of ranges

7. Direct Impacts of Climate Change (continued) • ExtremeEvents • Crop failure or reduced yields • Livestock death • Disruption of transportation lines • Rising Sea Levels • Elimination and salinization of arable land in some coastal regions

8. Direct Impacts of Climate Change - Overall • Global agricultural production not expected to decline as long as temperature increases do not exceed 3º • Significant regional shifts in food production will likely negatively affect developing countries

9. Flaws in the Analysis This analysis does not adequately account for: • Indirect effects on social, economic and political structures • Non-linear effects or tipping points • Climate change temperature increases beyond 3º • A major increase in extreme events • Non-climate change related events and factors

10. Regional Food Self-Sufficiency • BC: • 5% of landbase suitable for growing crops • Produces 48% of food • RDKB and RDCK: • 117,367 ha of ALR land • 80,589 ha in farms • No land class information available but 2/3s considered good • 18,027 ha currently in crops • Produces less than 48% of food (best guess)

11. Regional Food Self-Sufficiency (continued) • Land required to grow enough food: • 0.5 ha per person per year (Canada Food Guide) • 0.2 ha per person per year (Less meat-centred diet) • Amount needed in RDKB and RDCK based on 2006 population: • 45,392 ha • 4540 ha would have to be irrigated

12. Regional Food Self-Sufficiency (continued) Challenges: • Climate change and non-climate change impacts • No incentives for new producers/de-skilled population • Limited processing and distribution infrastructure • Barriers to developing processing and distribution infrastructure • Unclear how much land is irrigated or could be irrigated • Land class information is needed • Some products could not be produced here • Seasonality of growing would be a problem