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Fertility in Transition Family and Fertility Dynamics in East Germany after Unification

Fertility in Transition Family and Fertility Dynamics in East Germany after Unification Michaela Kreyenfeld. Relevance of Research Question. Politics and Media Convergence of fertility behavior= indicator of „social unification“? Statistical Office Harmonizing of the statistics?

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Fertility in Transition Family and Fertility Dynamics in East Germany after Unification

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  1. Fertility in Transition Family and Fertility Dynamics in East Germany after Unification Michaela Kreyenfeld

  2. Relevance of Research Question • Politics and Media • Convergence of fertility behavior= indicator of „social unification“? • Statistical Office • Harmonizing of the statistics? • Social Science • Natural experiement • Study of behavior under radically new constraints

  3. Structure of Talk 1. Constraints and fertility dynamics until 1990 2. Constraints and attitudes after 1990 3. Fertility dynamics after 1990

  4. Constraints before 1990 • Planned Economy • Constitutional „right to work” • No unemployment • Integration of Women into Labor Market • Normative pressure to be employed • High public day care coverage • Pro-Natalistic Policies (since 1972) • Policies and „moral appeals“ that encouraged early first birth • Policies directed to higher order births

  5. Pro-natalistic policies Fertility Dynamics before 1990 Total Fertility Rate 3.0 West Germany 2.5 East Germany 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 Source: Statistisches Bundesamt

  6. Fertility Dynamics before 1990 Percentage of Non-Marital Births 50% 40% 30% 20% East Germany 10% West Germany 0% 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 Source: Statistisches Bundesamt

  7. ~ 5 years ~ 25-30 % ~ 5-10 % Fertility Dynamics before 1990 Survival curve to first birth (percentage childless by age) 100% Cohort 1964 (West) Cohort 1964 (Ost) 50% 0% 15 20 25 30 35 Source: Micro-census 1998 (own calculations) Age of woman

  8. Part 2 Constraints and Attitudes after 1990

  9. Jul Jul Apr Apr Mai Mai Jan Jan Jan Feb Jun Oct Feb Jun Oct Sep Dec Sep Dec Nov Nov Mar Mar Aug Aug Constraints and Attitudes after 1990 • Fall of ‘Berlin Wall’ in November 1989 • Start of Privatization Process in March 1990 • Monetary Union in July 1990 • Political and Legal Unification in October 1990 Fall of Berlin Wall Monetary Union Legal Unification Treuhand 1989 1990 1991

  10. Constraints and Attitudes after 1990 Unemployment Rate 25% East Germany 20% 15% West Germany 10% 5% 0% 1990 1995 2000 2005 Source: Bundesagentur für Arbeit

  11. Constraints and Attitudes after 1990 Hourly Gross Wage Wages in the industry sector West Germany East Germany Source: Statistisches Bundesamt

  12. 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1990 1995 2000 2005 Constraints and Attitudes after 1990 Worried about Job Security % of respondents who is very worried about job security East Germany West Germany Source: SOEP (own estimations)

  13. Constraints and Attitudes after 1990 One needs a Family to Lead a Happy Life % of respondents who states that one needs a family to lead a happy life 100% 75% West Germany 50% East Germany 25% 0% 1992 1996 2000 2004 Source: ALLBUS (own estimations)

  14. Constraints and Attitudes after 1990 Child Suffers when Mother Works % of respondents who believe that child suffers when mother works West Germany East Germany Source: ALLBUS (own estimations)

  15. Constraints and Attitudes after 1990 Mother‘s Full-time Employment % of mothers*) who work full-time, [*)women aged 18-45 with children aged 1-15] 100% 75% West Germany West Germany 50% East Germany East Germany 25% 0% 1991 1996 2000 2004 Quelle: Kreyenfeld/ Konietzka (2007)

  16. Constraints and Attitudes after 1990 Provision of Public Day Care (Children under age 3) (Availability ratio for public day care places for children aged 0-3) West Germany East Germany Quelle: Statistisches Bundesamt

  17. Part 3 Family Dynamics after 1990

  18. Fertility Dynamics after 1990 Total Fertility Rate 3.0 East Germany 2.5 2.0 West Germany 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Source: Statistisches Bundesamt

  19. Cohort 1972 (West) ~ 5 years Cohort 1972 (East) Cohort 1964 (East) Family Dynamics after 1990 Survival Curve to First Birth (percentage childless by age) 100% 50% 0% 15 20 25 30 35 Age of Woman Source: Micro-census (own estimations)

  20. Family Dynamics after 1990 Childlessness at age 38 in East and West Germany 30% 26% West Germany 25% 20% 20% 14% 15% East Germany 10% 5% 0% 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 Cohort Source: Kreyenfeld/ Konietzka (2007)

  21. Fertility Dynamics after 1990 Percentage of Non-Marital Births 100% 75% East Germany 50% 34% West Germany 19% 25% 10% 0% 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Source: Statistisches Bundesamt

  22. Fertility Dynamics after 1990 Percentage of Non-Marital Births 100% 75% 59% East Germany 50% 34% 23% West Germany 19% 25% 10% 0% 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Source: Statistisches Bundesamt

  23. 64% 60% 50% 40% 39% 30% No degree 26% 21% 20% Vocational degree 18% University degree 10% 7% 0% 1976 1982 1991 1996 2000 2004 Family Dynamics after 1990 Non-marital parenthood by women’s education (% of unmarried mothers*) by final education [women aged 15-45 with children below age 3)] West Germany East Germany 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% No degree 14% 10% 8% 7% University degree Vocational 0% 1976 1982 1989 1996 2000 2004 Source: miicro-census (own estimations)

  24. Conclusions • Family Formation • Dramatic increase in age at first birth compared to GDR-times • However: East Germans are still younger at first birth than West Germans •  Crisis of East or West German behavior? Non-Marital Fertility • Unexpected increase in non-marital fertilty in the East after 1990 • Persisting East-West- Differences in family structure • No „adaptation“ to West German constraints?

  25. Conclusions Percentage of Non-Marital Births in 2004 “The more liberal attitudes towards out-of-wedlock childbearing –already more accepted in the rest of Europe– could disrupt the more traditional West German pattern of family formation” (Heilig/Büttner/ Lutz 1990) Source: Council of Europe

  26. Max-Planck-Institut für demografische Forschung www.demogr.mpg.de

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