Chapter Thirteen

Chapter Thirteen The Realist Road to Security Through Alliances, Arms Control, and the Balance of Power

Table 13.1: The Realist Road to Security: Assumptions and Policy Recommendations

Alliances • two or more states combine military capabilities; formal agreements to coordinate behavior • increase deterrence • increased defense capabilities • allies don’t ally with enemies

Realist Criticisms of Alliances • can increase capabilities of aggressive states • provoke formation of counter-alliances • can draw in otherwise neutral states • must try to control behavior of allies • today’s ally may be tomorrow’s enemy • foreclose options

Realist Criticisms of Alliances, continued • reduce adaptability • eliminate bargaining advantages that come from ambiguity • provoke fears of adversaries • entangle states in disputes of allies • stimulate envy of states outside the alliance • preserves existing rivalries • but: alliances can still be useful

Balance of Power • peace most likely to be maintained when military power is distributed so that no single power or bloc can dominate • an ambiguous concept • alliances form to counter an aggressor • size principle: competing alliances are roughly equal in power • balancer role: Great Britain

Rules for an Effective Balancing Process • stay vigilant--identify potential threats and opportunities • seek allies when you cannot match the armaments of an adversary • remain flexible in making alliances • oppose any state that seeks hegemony • be moderate in victory

Arms Agreements the possibilities: • arms control • disarmament • bilateral agreements • multilateral agreements

Superpower Arms Control • SALT I (1972)/SALT II (1979) • stabilized nuclear arms race • START agreements (1993-1997) and SORT (2002) reduce weapons: • ban all MIRVs on ICBMs • major reductions in warhead numbers • maintains MAD

Figure 13.1: Countdown to Strategic Parity: The Negotiated End of the U.S.-Russian Arms Race

Multilateral Treaties • 1959 Antarctic Treaty • 1963 Limited Test Ban Treaty • 1967 Outer Space Treaty • 1968 Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty • 1971 Seabed Treaty • 1972 Biological Weapons Convention • 1981 Inhumane Weapons Convention • 1986 CDE Agreement

Multilateral Treaties, continued • 1987 Missile Technology Control Regime • 1990 Conventional Forces in Europe • 1992 Open Skies Treaty • 1993 Chemical Weapons Convention • 1996 Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty • 1998 Antipersonnel Landmines Treaty

Map 13.1: Trick on Treaty? Can Arms Control Treaties Arrest the Proliferation of Weapons?

Power-Balance Breakdowns • long peaces • 1815-1848 • 1871-1914 • hegemonic stability theory • Cold War balance of terror • no major wars • pax atomica

Balance of Power Models • unipolarity • United States just after World War II • United States now?--Bush doctrine • bipolarity • United States/Soviet Union 1949-1989 • NATO-Warsaw Pact • extended deterrence • multipolarity

Multipolarity • United States • China • Russia • European Union • Japan • Brazil • India

NATO enlargement • bandwagoning: states want to ally with strongest power • Partnership for Peace: limited partnership with former Warsaw Pact members • shifting coalitions within the alliance

Map 13.2: The Enlarged NATO in the New Geostrategic Balance of Power

Discussion • Why is alliance membership problematic? • Should the United States seek more cooperation with allies, or should it continue with the Bush doctrine? • To what extent is the balance of power a useful goal? Why is it a slippery concept? • Was there long-term stability in the bipolar world of the Cold War?

Discussion, continued • Are we in a unipolar world with the United States as hegemon? If so, is this desirable? • Which states can be considered major powers? Why? • Why is the threat of massive nuclear war no longer the major issue in the minds of the public that it was during the Cold War?

Chapter Thirteen