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Regional Gas Outlook 2014: Aggregation of IRPs and Planning Documents

Gain insights into the regional gas demand forecasts, supply scenarios, and capacity considerations for 2014. Explore the consensus perspective and potential challenges in gas delivery to Huntingdon.

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Regional Gas Outlook 2014: Aggregation of IRPs and Planning Documents

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  1. What is the Outlook? Aggregation of IRPs and other planning docs. A consensus regional perspective. Can be read/downloaded at: http://www.nwga.org/2014-gas-outlook

  2. Recent Gas Demand

  3. Demand Composition

  4. 2014 Outlook Forecast

  5. Residential Demand

  6. 1st Year By Outlook Year

  7. Demand Scenarios

  8. T-South to Huntingdon Feb Jan 24 4-­‐10 Dec5-­‐20 1,800 1,600 DesignCapacity 1702 MMcfd 1,400 Daily Volumes MMcf/d 1,200 1,000 800 GasdeliveredtoHuntingdonsupplies: •FortisBCVancouver & Vanc Island •NorthwestPipeline •Ferndale & CascadePipelines and Sumas Energy 600 High Flow Periods Daily Avg. (MMcf/d) December 5-20 January24February 4-10 1724 1711 1675 400 200 0 Firm AOS InterrupLble

  9. NWP Kemmerer North 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 Scheduled Dekatherms 1,000,000 500,000 0 Scheduled Dekatherms Historical Peak Day Scheduled

  10. 2013-14 Fundamentals $/Dth HeatingDegrees 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 $30 Feb6PeakPrices Sumas - $27 $25 Stanfield - $24 SignificantCold $20 Normal HDD Portland HDD Sumas Price StanfieldPrice Kingsgate Price Kingsgate - $15 $15 $10 $5 Prolonged Cold $0 Capacity limitson Westcoastcoincideswith price spikes WestcoastFlows-Mcfd 2,000 1,500 Mainline Flow Mainline Capacity SumasFlow SumasCapacity 1,000 500 0 9

  11. 2013-14 Takeaways >Capacity –Sufficient tomeet existingrequirements –Lots of gas being shipped IT on Spectra and GTN –Less flexibilitydue tohighutilizationoncriticaldays –Northwestentitleditssystem for11days –Spectra hit capacity limits twice –Constraints can cause price escalation >StorageCapacity –Customersreliedheavilyonstorageduring cold weather –High value asset

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