Dr. Lawrence Roberts CEO, Founder, Anagran

1. Dr. Lawrence Roberts CEO, Founder, Anagran Internet Evolution into the Future

2. The Beginning of the InternetARPANET became the Internet • 1965 – MIT- 1st Packet Experiment -Roberts • 1967 - Roberts to ARPA – Designs ARPANET • 1969 – ARPANET Starts – 1st Packet Network • 1971 – ARPANET Grows to 18 nodes • 1983 – TCP/IP installed on ARPANET – Kahn/Cerf • 1986 – NSF takes over network - NSFNET • 1991 – Internet opened to commercial use Roberts at MIT Computer

3. “Internet” Name first used- RFC 675 Roberts term at ARPA Kahn term at ARPA Cerf term at ARPA SATNET - Satellite to UK Aloha-Packet Radio PacketRadioNET Spans US DNS TCP/IP Design TCP/IP NCP Ethernet EMAIL FTP ICCC Demo X.25 – Virtual Circuit standard Internet Early History

4. Original Internet DesignIt was designed for Data • File Transfer and Email main activities • Constrained by high cost of memory • Only Packet Destination Examined • No Source Checks • No QoS • No Security • Best Effort Only • Voice Considered • Video not feasible ARPANET July 1977 Not much change since then

5. Changing Use of InternetMajor changes in Network Use • Voice Totally moving to packets – Low loss, low delay required • Video Totally moving to packets – Low loss, low delay jitter required • Emergency Services No Preference Priority • Broadband EdgeMust control Edge Traffic • P2P utilizes TCP unfairness – multiple flows • Congests network – 5% of users take 80% of capacity

6. Network Change Required • Fairness • Multi-flow applications (P2P) overload access networks • Network Security • Need User Authentication and Source Checking • Emergency Services • Need Secure Preference Priorities • Cost & Power • Growth constrained to Moore’s law & developed areas • Quality • Video & Voice require lower jitter and loss

7. Internet Traffic Grown 1012 since 1970 Electronics – Double every 18 months Double each year TCP ARPANET NSFNET COMMERICAL In 1999 P2P applications discovered using multiple flows could give them more capacity and their traffic moved up to 80% of the network capacity

8. 20082018 % World Population On-Line 22% 99% Total Traffic PB/month 3,200 191,000 Traffic per User GB/month 2.2 26 GB/mo/user Developed areas 2.7 156 GB/mo/user Less Dev. areas 0.5 3 People in less developed areas will have more capacity than is available in developed areas today! Users in developed areas could see 3-10 hours of video per day (HD or SD) Requires a 60 times increase in capacity (Moore’s Law increase) Where will the Internet be in the next decade

9. Fairness - In the beginning • A flow was a file transfer, or a voice call • The voice network had 1 flow per user • All flows were equal (except for 911) • Early networking was mainly terminal to computer • Again we had 1 flow (each way) per user • No long term analysis was done on fairness • It was obvious that under congestion: Users are equal thus Equal Capacity per Flow was the default design

10. P2P FTP Equality DPI No Control Fairness - Equal Capacity per Flow in Unfair • The Internet is still equal capacity per flow under congestion • P2P uses 10-1000 flows – consumes neighbors capacity • Typically 1000 ISP users share a capacity pool • Congestion here forces equal capacity per flow • The result is therefore unfair to users who paid the same

11. Fairness - Internet Traffic Recently – 80% P2P • Since 2004, total traffic has increased 64% per year, about Moore’s Law • P2P has increased 91% per year – Consuming most of the capacity growth • Normal traffic has only increased 22% per year –Significantly slowdown from past • Since P2P slows other traffic 5:1, users can only do 1/5 as much • This may account for the normal traffic being about 1/5 what it should be with normal growth

12. P2P FTP Fairness - A New Ruleis Needed • Today -Equal capacity per flow • P2P has taken advantage of this, using 10-1000 flows • This gives the 5% P2P users 80-95% of the capacity • P2P does not know when to stop until it sees congestion • Instead we should giveEqual capacity for equal pay • This is simply a revised equality rule – similar users get equal capacity • This tracks with what we pay • This is a major worldwide problem • P2P is not bad, it can be quite effective • But, without revised fairness, multi-flow applications will proliferate • It then becomes an arms race – who can use the most flows

13. Security – User Authentication in the Network • Today – All security is left to the computer • The network does not even verify the source address • There is no way to determine who sent Spam or Malware • Goal – Network to secure each connection (flow) • User and computer ID sent to network to be verified • Network to verify the source address is correct • Also, allow the receiver to verify the senders ID • If no legal ID, connection can be refused • This greatly improves Internet security • Source of Malware can be recorded and controlled • Computer security becomes much easier • Protocol for this is now proceeding in the ITU

14. Emergency Services – Required on Internet • Today – Telephone system has GETS for emergencies • However, Internet taking over voice and has no such service • Required – Both priority and user authentication security • Priority is not available in the Internet – it could be misused • Secure user authentication required before priority offered • Priority must provide higher rates, not just lower delay • Same problem as Multi-Flow fairness – needs rate priority • Standard queue based discard for congestion cannot do it • Flow based rate control is required • Solution requires change at network edge • Flow rate control and per flow user authentication

15. A New Alternative - Flow Rate Management • Network Equipment now drops random packets • All traffic suffers delay and jitter if there is any congestion • Voice & Video do not slow down but still lose packets • Data flows often lose several packets and stall • Flow Rate Management - a new control alternative • Control the rate of each TCP flow individually • Smoothly adjust the TCP rates to fill the desired capacity • Insure congestion does not occur by controlling rates • Provide for user authentication and emergency service priorities • Replacing random drops with rate control: • Network Stability is maintained • All traffic moves smoothly without random loss and stalls • Voice & Video flows cleanly with no loss or delay jitter • Unfairness can be eliminated

16. Flow Rate Management – Why now? • Routers, WAN Optimizers, & DPI depend on processing • They process every packet – there are 14 packets per flow • Memory cost has come down faster than processing cost • Flow Rate Management is memory based (flow table) • Stream packets without delay, rate control flows • Allows it to support four 10 Gbps trunks in 1 RU

17. Cost and Power – Reduction help Internet Grow • Today – Network equipment is packet based • Every packet re-examined – Extensive processing • Flow Rate Management processes flows • Hardware lookup of flow record for incoming packets • Flow rate measured and, if required, controlled • Output rates measured, feedback insure no congestion • Result - comparing flow vs. packet processing: • Power, size and cost 3-5 times lower managing flows • New capabilities available: fairness, security, priority, quality • These factors allow a step-up in Internet capacity • Cost (4:1). Fairness (5:1). Congestion (2:1) – Total 40:1

18. Impact - Optical Network • Today – Fiber cost has crossed below Equipment cost • Fiber capacity cost has been reducing by half every 12 months • Equipment cost has been reducing b half every 18 months • This limits the Internet capacity growth to Moore’s Law • Equipment dominates, Income/user fixed, Thus growth limited • Flow Rate Management permits a major cost reduction • The network edge $/Gbps can be reduced by over 10:1 • The network core can use primarily optical switching • This can let the Internet capacity double each year again • Lower power is also critical for the environment