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Assessing the Impact of Disasters on International Trade: A Comprehensive Study

This research explores the effects of disasters on international trade, challenging the notion of efficiency in specialization and trade as proposed by Ricardo. It draws on empirical studies, notably "Shaken, Not Stirred" by Gassebner et al., which indicates that an additional disaster can decrease imports by an average of 0.2% and exports by 0.1%. The study aims to analyze the disaster impact on specific countries and periods, using data from EM-DAT, NBER-United Nations Trade Data, and other sources, while incorporating economic, social, and political variables.

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Assessing the Impact of Disasters on International Trade: A Comprehensive Study

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  1. Introduction I want to research the impact of disasters on international trade. Countries should specialize in whatever they do best and obtain the rest through trade (Ricardo). This is an efficient organization, but is it “robust” to large-scale catastrophes?

  2. Introduction

  3. Literature Only one empirical study so far: Shaken, Not Stirred: The Impact of Disasters on International Trade (Martin Gassebner, Alexander Keck, and RoberthTeh), Working Paper No 139, June 2006, Swiss Institute for Business Cycle Research Looked at period between 1962 and 2004. An additional disaster reduces imports on average by 0.2% and exports by 0.1%. The impact depends on level of democracy and size of the country. Togo estimated to have lost 6.8% of imports and 8.2% of exports if hit by a major disaster in 2000.

  4. Data Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) (1900-2010) http://mdat.be NBER-United Nations Trade Data (1962-2000) http://cid.econ.ucdavis.edu/data/undata/undata.html The United Nations Statistical Division Commodity Trade Data Base (1962-2009) http://comtrade.un.org/db/ Direction of Trade Statistics at IMF (1940-2010) 5 day free trial at http://imfstatistics.org/DOT/

  5. My Project Measure disaster impact on specific countries or for a specific time period(s). Measure impact of volcano eruption in Europe in April 2010. Look at impact between 2004 and 2009 (2010). Consider adding other variables. ETH Zurich KOF Globalization Index (http://globalization.kof.ethz.ch/) Economic: Trade % of GDP, FDI, Portfolio Investment, Tariffs Social: Telephone Traffic, Tourism, Foreign Population, Letters, Internet, TV, McDonald’s Restaurants, IKEA stores, Trade in books Political: Number of embassies, Membership in Int’l Organizations

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