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Progress and Plans in Joint OSSEs

This article provides updates on the progress and future plans of Joint OSSEs, including evaluations of nature run, cloud analysis, cyclone tracks, diurnal cycle, calibration simulations, and data impact of satellite observations.

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Progress and Plans in Joint OSSEs

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  1. Progress and Plans in Joint OSSEs Michiko Masutani Joint OSSE coordinator NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/OSSE

  2. More evaluations of Nature Run performed and planned Evaluation of Clouds Simpson Weather Associates SWA Comparison between the ECMWF T511 Nature Run against climatology of observation 20050601-20060531, exp=eskb, cycle=31r1 Adrian Tompkins, ECMWF Initial assessment Erik Andersson(ECMWF) Cyclone track Thomas Jung (ECMWF) Case Events Identified from ECMWF T799 NRMSU Study of Low level jet Juan Carlos Jusem,NASA/SIVO Comparison of zonal mean zonal wind jet maxima, NR and ECMWF analysis, NH Arctic winter in Nature Run Nikki Prive, ESRL Drift in Nature run Diurnal cycle Michiko Masutani, EMC

  3. Simulation of Observations required for calibration Existing instrument experiments must be simulated for control and calibration and development of DAS and RTM Test GOESR, NPOESS, and other future satellite data Simulation of Conventional ObservationsJack Woollen (NCEP/EMC), Ron Errico (NASA/GMAO) Simulation of Radiance for Calibration GMAO, NESDIS, NCEPTong Zhu, Haibing Sun, Fuzhong Weng(NOAA/NESDIS)Jack Woollen(NOAA/NCEP)Ron Errico, Runhua Yang, Emily Liu, Lars Peter Riishojgaard, Ravi Govindaraju (NASA/GSFC/GMAO) Cloud Motion Vectors SWA - Advised by Chris Velden - Calibration experimentsEMC,GMAO,ESRL

  4. Simulation of Observations Simulation of DWLKNMI, SWA, NASA/GSFC, Ball(?) Unmanned Air Craft System (UAS) NOAA/ESRL Simulation Radiance data to be evaluated by OSSEsGMAO,NESDIS,MSU,JCSDA, UW/SSEC and more Uniform Raob for testing DAS EMC Scatterometer KNMI has capibility

  5. OSSEs planned Funded or seeking funding but starting with volunteers OSSEs to investigate data impact of GOES and preparation for GOES-R NESDIS, EMC OSSE to evaluate DWL KNMI,SWA,EMC, GMAO, NOAA/ESRL, and more OSSE to evaluate UAS ESRL and NCEP OSSEs for THORPEX T-PARC EMC, FSU, ESRL Regional OSSEs to Evaluate ATMS and CrIS Observations GRI/Mississippi State Univ (MSU), JCSDA

  6. Various planned OSSE-related activities Visualization of the Nature run Jibo Sanyal (MSS), O. Reale (NASA/GSFC/GLA), H. Mitchell(NASA/GSFC/SIVO) Sensor Web NASA/GSFC/SIVO, SWA Assimilation with LETKF possibly by 4D-var T. Miyoshi(JMA) and T. Enomoto(JAMSTEC) Analysis with surface pressure Gil Compo, P. D. Sardeshmukh (ESRL) Identical twin experiments It is worthwhile to try identical twin experiments to understand model error. Identical twin OSSEs can be only used for illustration only . ECMWF offered to perform identical twin OSSEs if there is specific goals. (Erik Andersson)

  7. Projects being considered or seeking funding and various possibilities OSSE to design configuration of GPS Lidia Cucurull,JCSDA,EMC Regional OSSEs to evaluate DWL Zhaoxia Pu,Univ of Utah Evaluation data assimilation system Ron Errico, GMAO Simulation of ASCAT QuickScat XOVMM Scatterometer Ad Stoffelen, KNMI Evaluation of RAOB Drift Erik Andersson,EMCWF Targeted Observation using LETKF Eugenia Kalnay, UMCP Evaluation of Drift Buoy Jean Pailleux, Meteo France More possibilities: Evaluation of retrieval program Simulating Gestational DWL, Ball

  8. Getting ready for OSSEs • ♦ Produce perfect data and run calibration experiments • ♦ Design representativeness error and observational error and redo calibration • ♦ Development of standard verification package • ♦ Clarify potential and limitations of OSSE and educate community • ♦ Meso/Regional OSSEs • Joint OSSE team agreed we have to concentrate on OSSEs with existing NRs to study superobbed data impact of high resolution data. However, there are strong demands for mesoscale OSSEs. Joint OSSE team is working on integrating mesoscale OSSE interest. • ♦ Coordination of work • - Uniform representation of observational data and results • - Keep track who actually did the work and various contributions • - Organizing publication • OSSE Chapter in Data Assimilation book from Springer • Introductory article in BAMS • ♦ Joint OSSE web site • http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/JointOSSEs

  9. Requirements for a future Nature Run - Some suggestions - We need to avoid many poorly planned and assessed nature run ♦ The NWP model must have good forecast skill. Great visualization does not guarantee good forecast skill. ♦ At least a 3 month lower resolution run with the same model is required to provide a spin-up period for bias correction. ♦ Must have a good TC or a severe storm in the Nature Run period. ♦ Sufficient number of vertical levels: Minimum 91 levels ♦ Some degree of coupling with the ocean and land surface ♦ If it is regional, the effect of the lateral boundary must be evaluated. ♦ A list of verification methods must be produced by Joint OSSE. ♦ Need NR to be shared within Joint OSSE ♦ User friendly archive

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