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Crop Market Outlook

Crop Market Outlook. Iowa Bankers Association Ag Conference Ames, Iowa Mar. 22, 2010 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911. U.S. Corn Supply and Use. Source: USDA. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use. Source: USDA. Storage Issues.

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Crop Market Outlook

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  1. Crop Market Outlook Iowa Bankers Association Ag Conference Ames, Iowa Mar. 22, 2010 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use Source: USDA

  3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Source: USDA

  4. Storage Issues Source: Hurburgh and Elmore, ICM News, 10/15/09

  5. World Corn Production Source: USDA

  6. Corn – Argentina & Brazil Source: USDA

  7. World Soybean Production Source: USDA

  8. Soybeans – Argentina & Brazil Source: USDA

  9. Corn Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  10. 2009 U.S. Corn Exports Source: USDA, FAS

  11. Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  12. 2009 U.S. Soybean Exports Source: USDA, FAS

  13. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)

  14. Ethanol Margins Source: ISU, CARD

  15. Ethanol Blending Advantage

  16. Crude Oil Prices Sources: EIA, NYMEX

  17. Corn 1990 - 2006

  18. Corn

  19. Corn Futures Source: CBOT, 3/16/10

  20. Soybean Futures Source: CBOT, 3/16/10

  21. Ratio: Nov. 2010 Soy/Dec. 2010 Corn Source: CBOT

  22. Input Costs Source: USDA, Agricultural Prices, Feb. 26, 2010

  23. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

  24. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

  25. Thoughts for 2009/10 and Beyond • General economic conditions • Continued economic recovery is a major key for crop prices • Weakness in the dollar helps exports, but dollar may fight back • Nearby crude oil prices floating in mid $70’s and lower $80’s • Supply/demand concerns • South America: Record soybean crop and large corn crop • Weather concerns for planting • 2009/10: USDA: Corn $3.60, Soy $9.45 Futures: Corn $3.55, Soy $9.44 • 2010/11: USDA: Corn $3.60, Soy $8.80 Futures: Corn $3.87, Soy $9.09

  26. Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

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