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This document discusses the role of futures thinking in educational governance, emphasizing the importance of scenario-based approaches for decision-makers. Gábor Halász of the National Institute for Public Education, Hungary, presents insights from the OECD/Japan Seminar on Education held in Hiroshima. It addresses challenges and future trends in governance, exploring scenarios such as 'survival', 'market', 'conservation', and 'transformation'. By understanding complexity and uncertainty, educational leaders can better navigate today's intricate landscape and work towards a more responsive and innovative education system.
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Futures thinking and decision-making at system levelGábor HalászNational Institute for Public EducationHungary „Futures Thinking for Education: Policy, Leadership and the Teaching Profession” (6 - 8 November 2006 - OECD/Japan Seminar – Hiroshima)
Where are education systems going ? Schools serve the individual „Survival scenario” „Market scenario” Education as a closed world Education as an open world „Conservation scenario” „Transformation scenario” Schools serve the community This is what most people in education would hope Source: J-M. Saussois: Scenarios, international comparisons, and key variables for educational scenario analysis. Think scenarios…, OECD, 2006 ►►
How to renew educational governance in order to realise the transformation scenario? • The context • Challenges and future trends in governance beyond education • Uncertainties, risks and increasing complexity in education systems • Facing the new regulation challenge in education • Using complexity thinking in renewing educational governance ►►
Can futures thinking help the renewal of education governance? • Leaders and decision makers involved in futures thinking inevitably face complexity • Those who try to understand and master unpredictable futures may be better equipped to cope with the complexity of the present • Futures thinking may enhance realism and modesty in leadership (through the continuous confrontation of the desirable with the probable) ►►