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Gordon Bell

Computer Industry Laws, Forces, and Heuristics… Or, Why computers are like they are and are likely to be. Gordon Bell. Outline. Inventions, forces & laws The two great inventions: Computer & IC The force, quest and drive of cyberization

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Gordon Bell

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  1. Computer Industry Laws, Forces, and Heuristics… Or,Why computers are like they are and are likely to be. Gordon Bell

  2. Outline • Inventions, forces & laws • The two great inventions: Computer & IC • The force, quest and drive of cyberization • Resulting computer classes and their supporting industries • The market support that drives it all • Technology to define new classes • Some inevitable new computer classes

  3. The two great inventions • The computer (1946). Computers supplement and substitute for all other info processors, including humans • Computers are built from other computers in a recursive fashion • Processors, memories, switching, and transduction are the primitives • The Transistor (1946) and subsequent Integrated Circuit (1957). • Computers are composed of a set of well-defined hardware-software levels

  4. Everything cyberizable will be in Cyberspace and covered by a hierarchy of computers! Body Continent Region/ Intranet Cars… phys. nets Home… buildings Campus World Fractal Cyberspace: a network of … networks of … platforms

  5. Cyberization: interface to all bits and process information • Coupling to all information and information processors • Pure bits e.g. printed matter • Bit tokens e.g. money • State: places, things, and people • State: physical networks

  6. Vannevar Bush c1945 “ ” “ There will always be plenty of things to compute ... With millions of people doing complicated things. memex … stores all his books, records, and communications, and ... can be consulted with speed and flexibility Matchbook sized, $.05 encyclopedia Speech to text Head mounted camera, dry photography ” “ ” “ ” ” “

  7. 1GB 128MB 1 chip memory size ( 2 MB to 32 MB) 8MB 1MB 128KB 8KB 1980 1990 2000 1970 256M bits: 1K 4K 16K 64K 256K 1M 4M 16M 64M Moore’s First Law • Transistor density doubles every 18 months 60% increase per year • Chip density transistors/die • Micro processor speeds • Exponential growth: • The past does not matter • 10x here, 10x there … means REAL change • PC costs decline faster than any other platform • Volume and learning curves • PCs are the building bricks of all future systems

  8. Computer components must all evolve at the same rate • Amdahl’s law: one instruction per second requires one byte of memory and one bit per second of I/O • Processor speed has evolved at 60% • Storage evolves at 60% • Wide Area Network speed evolves at 60% • Local Area Network speed evolved 26-60% • Grove’s Law: Plain Old Telephone Service (POTS) thwarts speed, evolving at 14%!

  9. Bell’s law of computer class formation to cover Cyberspace • New computer platforms emerge based on chip density evolution • Computer classes require new platforms, networks, and cyberization • New apps and content develop around each new class • Each class becomes a vertically disintegrated industry based on hardware and software standards

  10. Mainframes (central) Log price WSs PCs (personals) ?? Time Bell’s Evolution Of Computer Classes Technology enables two evolutionary paths:1. constant performance, decreasing cost2. constant price, increasing performance Mini 1.26 = 2x/3 yrs -- 10x/decade; 1/1.26 = .8 1.6 = 4x/3 yrs --100x/decade; 1/1.6 = .62

  11. “The Computer” Mainframe tube, core, drum, tape, batch O/S direct > batch Mini & Timesharing SSI-MSI, disk, timeshare O/S terminals via commands POTS PC/WS micro, floppy, disk, bit-map display, mouse, dist’d O/S WIMP LAN Web browser, telecomputer, tv computer PC, scalable servers, Web, HTML Internet Platform, Interface, & Network Computer Class Enablers Network Interface Platform

  12. Bell’s Nine Computer Price Tiers 1$: embeddables e.g. greeting card 10$: wrist watch & wallet computers 100$: pocket/ palm computers 1,000$: portable computers 10,000$: personal computers (desktop) 100,000$: departmental computers (closet) 1,000,000$: site computers (glass house) 10,000,000$: regional computers (glass castle) 100,000,000$: national centers Super server: costs more than $100,000“Mainframe”: costs more than $1 million an array of processors, disks, tapes, comm ports

  13. Computer Industry 1982 IBM DEC HP NCR Solutions Applications OS Computers Processors

  14. Computer Industry 1995 Andersen, EDS, KPMG, Lante, etc. Comshare, D&B, PeopleSoft, SAP Microsoft, Lotus, WordPerfect, etc. • Consult • Apps • Apps • Dbases • OS • Network • Periph • Computers • Micros • Solutions Informix, Ingres, Oracle, Sybase,etc. Microsoft, Apple, Sun, Novell Novell, Microsoft, Banyan HP, Canon, Lexmark, Seagate IBM, Compaq, DEC, Apple, many others Intel, AMD, Motorola, others EDS, FDC, BTG, API, DataFocus, HFSI

  15. Economics-based laws determine the market • Demand: doubles as price declines by 20% • Learning curves: 10-15% cost decline with 2X units • Bill’s Law for the economics of PC software • Nathan’s Laws of Software -- the virtuous circle • Metcalfe’s Law of the “value of a network”

  16. Software Economics: Bill’s Law Fixed_cost Price Marginal _cost = + Units • Bill Joy’s law (Sun): don’t write software for <100,000 platforms @$10 million engineering expense, $1,000 price • Bill Gate’s law:don’t write software for <1,000,000 platforms @$10M engineering expense, $100 price • Examples: • UNIX versus Windows NT: $3,500 versus $500 • Oracle versus SQL-Server: $100,000 versus $6,000 • No spreadsheet or presentation pack on UNIX/VMS/... • Commoditization of base software and hardware

  17. The Virtuous Economic Cycle that drives the PC industry Competition Volume Standards Utility/value Innovation

  18. Nathan’s Laws of software 1. Software is a gas. It expands to fill the container it is in 2. Software grows until it becomes limited by Moore’s Law 3. Software growth makes Moore’s Law possible 4. Software is only limited by human ambition and expectation …GB: and our ability to cyberize I.e. encode

  19. Metcalf’s LawNetwork Utility = Users2 • How many connections can it make? • 1 user: no utility • 100,000 users: a few contacts • 1 million users: many on Net • 1 billion users: everyone on Net • That is why the Internet is so “hot” • Exponential benefit

  20. The Virtuous Cycle that drives the BW quest Userdemand Application innovation Internet(IP) ubiquity Capac. (svc & response) Excess capac.-->>BW

  21. Future Telecom Industry Ericsson, Aspect, Nortel, Octel, others Microsoft, Delrina, many others Applications Applications Databases OS Switching Computers DSP Processors Informix, Microsoft, Oracle, Sybase, others Microsoft, Apple, Sun, Novell, LINUX Ericsson, Nortel, Bay, 3Com, Fore, others Compaq, DEC, Dell, IBM, many others Dialogic, NMS, Rhetorex, others Intel, AMD, Motorola, others

  22. Hardware technology: processing, memory, networking, and new interfaces enable the new computers

  23. 1. We get more

  24. Some changes by 2001 • 256 Mbit (32 Mbyte chip with computer) • LSI Logic is “System on a chip” co. • 64 M gates (>100 M transistors) today • Embeddable, low cost products (e.g. cameras, instruments) with processing, memory, net, I/O • Mbit bandwidth will be like ISDN today • New networks will form to ferry us amongh the “Islands of Cyberspace” • PC, phone, fax (unfortunately), pager, radio/cell phone, home stuff, info appliances • Cerf: “IP on everything.”

  25. Tera Giga Mega Kilo 1 Storage Backbone Processing Memory ?? Telephone Service17% / year 1947 1957 1967 1977 1987 1997 2007 Extrapolation from 1950s: 20-30% growth per year

  26. National Semiconductor Technology Roadmap (size)

  27. National Storage Technology Roadmap (size, density, speed)

  28. 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 Communication rate(t) in log10(Kbps) ??? 1 Gb SAN/backpanels LAN 1 Mb ??? WAN ISDN POTS @ 17%/year 1 Kb POTS

  29. Peak Advertised Performance (PAP) Real AppliedPerformance (RAP) 41% Growth Moore’sLaw Microprocessor performance 100 G 10 G Giga 100 M 10 M Mega Kilo 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

  30. Gains if 20, 40, & 60% / year 60%= Exaops 1.E+21 1.E+18 1.E+15 1.E+12 1.E +9 1.E+6 40%= Petaops 20%= Teraops 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045

  31. New overtakes old

  32. Bipolarprocessors 9000 RISC shift VAX CMOSmicroprocessor Processor performance… also for mainframes and supers 1000 100 10 1 0.1 0.01 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

  33. Things get cheaper

  34. Exponential change of 10X per decade causes real turmoil! 100000 10000 1000 100 $K 10 1 0.1 0.01 8 MB 1 MB 256 KB 64 KB 16 KB Timeshared systems Single-usersystems 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

  35. VAX Planning Model 1975:I didn’t believe it • The model was very good • 1978 timeshared $250K VAXencost about $8K in 1997! • Costs declined > 20% • users get more memory than predicted • Single user systems didn’t come down as fast, unless you consider PDAs • VAX ran out of address bits!

  36. Old Old New New Newer & cheaper always wins?… if it weren’t for the Law of Intertia

  37. “The mainframe is dead!… and for sure this time!” Mainframe PRICE Server PC

  38. The law of data and program inertia sustains platforms! • The investment in programs and processes to use them, and data exceed hardware costs • The cost to switch among platforms e.g. IBM mainframe, VMS, a VendorIX, or Windows/NT is determined by the data and programs • The goal of hardware suppliers isuniqueness to differentiate and lock-in • The goals of software/database suppliers are: to differentiate and lock-in andoperate on as many platforms as possible in order to be not tied to a hardware vendor

  39. Will the need for high volume, higher performance micros aka PCs continue? • Speech... but some of that power will be embedded in appliances • Video requires extra-ordinary power, especially to “understand” • Video servers! • The explosion of stored everything e.g. photos, voice, video, requires more memory and processing

  40. It’s the near-term platforms, stupid!(multimedia is finally happening) • Text & 2D graphics -->> images, voice, & video • The WEB: being anywhere and doing anything • Disk sizes and cost c1998 • $50-100 / GB • 4 GB standard; CD-R; and 20-40 GB magneto-optic R/W • Document, picture, and video capture and compression • 10,000 to 250,000 pages / GB; 10,000 pictures / GB • 40-400 books / GB or $0.25-2.50 / book • Plethora of Video & digital cameras everywhere! • Voice and video compression* • 250 hours / GB voice • Stamp size-VHS: 12-50 hours / GB; DVD / HDTV: 0.5 hr / GB • Audio: Surround sound that is part of V-places • Ubiquitous access: NetPC, WebTV, web & videophones *Because there’s limited bandwidth!

  41. What if could or when can we store everything we’ve: read/written, heard, and seen?

  42. Vannevar Bush c1945 “ ” “ There will always be plenty of things to compute ... With millions of people doing complicated things. memex … stores all his books, records, and communications, and ... can be consulted with speed and flexibility Matchbook sized, $.05 encyclopedia Speech to text Head mounted camera, dry photography ” “ ” “ ” ” “

  43. All those photos

  44. 10X in 40 years (6% per year)

  45. Library Volume Growth 10X in 150 years

  46. Some bits at Library of Congress • Scanned LC 1PBassumes 6B pages • 13M photos 13TB • 4M maps 200TB • 500K movies 500TB • 3.5M recordings 2,000TB • 5 Bpeople or 2 GB per person

  47. Other bits per year • Cinema 5K 200TB • Images (all) 52G 520PB • Broadcast 1500st 200/10PB • Recordings 100K 60TB • Telephone 500Gmin 400PB • videotape???

  48. Estimate of 1998 storage ships http://www.lesk.com • Disks 25B 250PB • Raid 13B 65PB • Optical 0.5B 25PB • Jukebox 5B 250PB • Tape 10B 10,000PB -10EB • Tape stack 2B 2000PB - 2EB

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