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The Future of the Global Economy

The Future of the Global Economy. Augusto López-Claros, Ph.D. International Environment Forum Brighton, United Kingdom December 18, 2010. Global Economic Outlook. Macroeconomic Outlook (% GDP Growth). Rising Public Debt. Public Debt (in % of GDP). United States Public Debt. (in % of GDP).

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The Future of the Global Economy

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  1. The Future of the Global Economy Augusto López-Claros, Ph.D. International Environment Forum Brighton, United Kingdom December 18, 2010

  2. Global Economic Outlook Macroeconomic Outlook (% GDP Growth)

  3. Rising Public Debt Public Debt (in % of GDP)

  4. United States Public Debt (in % of GDP)

  5. U.S. Deficits: Largest in History U.S. Fiscal Deficit: 1980-2010 (% of GDP) Source: IMF World Economic Outlook

  6. Advanced economies’ gross financing needs, 2010 (In percent of GDP) Source: IMF, Fiscal Monitor 2010 * In 2009. ** In years.

  7. Projected Change of Elderly Projected shares of elderly in total population by region (in percent)

  8. Radically different growth experiences GDP per capita 1980-2009 (PPP in US $)

  9. Growth Experiences Average annual per capita income growth

  10. Sustainable Economic Welfare Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare: United States

  11. Sustainable Economic Welfare Gross National Product Minus Cost of commuting Cost of personal pollution control Cost of auto accidents Cost of water pollution Cost of air pollution Cost of noise pollution Loss of wetlands Loss of farmland Depletion of nonrenewable resources Long-term environmental damage … … Equals Sustainable Economic Welfare

  12. Average GDP per capita in dollars Source: World Bank 2008 country classification, IMF, The Economist Democracy Index

  13. Decile shares of global income (2002, in %) Source: Branko Milanovic, World Bank

  14. Millions of people with income under $1.25/day Extreme poverty: Millions of people with income under $2/day World Population: 6600

  15. Poverty

  16. Evolution of Social Indicators

  17. Implications of Population Growth Population Growth from 1800 to 2050 (billions) • Energy consumption • Burdens of scale of human / economic activity on environment • Consequences • Global warming • Loss of tropical forests • Bio-diversity loss

  18. A regulatory nightmare Doing Business Report: An international perspective on regulation * Ranking sobre 181 países Fuente: Doing Business Report 2009

  19. Corruption vs. Regulation

  20. Current Account Balances (in billions of US $)

  21. China: Current Account Balances

  22. Dollar to Euro exchange rate January 1999 to October 2010 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve

  23. Governance Gap Global problems requiring collective action • Management of global environment • Fight against poverty • Global financial architecture • Nuclear proliferation • Illegal drugs • Terrorism and conflict prevention • Trade liberalization and distribution of benefits • Education

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