The Australian Stocks and Flows Framework - example applications

1. The Australian Stocks and Flows Framework - example applications Dr Graham Turner

2. Example Applications • narrow focus  broad study • Victorian Electricity Generation • 100% Renewable National Power • National Sustainability • Food Security • Coupling to economy model Australian Stocks and Flows Framework

3. Applications • Victorian Electricity Generation • 100% Renewable National Power • National Sustainability • Food Security Australian Stocks and Flows Framework

4. Age profile of power plant (Vic) in 2050 Young Old Rapid action is needed since infrastructure lasts for many decades • Some current electricity generation plant may still be operating in 2050 • after ~ 2012-2016 all new plant must be able to produce ZERO emissions in 2050 to meet reduction targets of 60-90%

5. Applications • Victorian Electricity Generation • 100% Renewable National Power • National Sustainability • Food Security Australian Stocks and Flows Framework

6. Rapid move to zero emissions electricity is possible, but has implications • Stranded assets • Emissions remain in other sectors

7. Material imposts of rapidly introduced new technologies • Rapid introduction of new technologies with shorter lifespan • Higher demand • Boom & bust cycles

8. Labour force implications of zero emissions electricity generation • potential offset if renewable generators manufactured in Australia • ~50,000 workers lost from power & heavy industry sector • Boom & bust cycles

9. Applications • Victorian Electricity Generation • 100% Renewable National Power • National Sustainability • Food Security Australian Stocks and Flows Framework

10. Australia’s population is likely to grow, but it could be stabilised or reduced • ABS Population “Series” • Combination of immigration & birth rates

11. Efficiency and productivity greatly increased • Labour productivity increases: 1% pa • Efficiency of energy and material use increases: 20% by 2030 • Less carbon emissions per $ of economic activity • efficiency improvements (~20% over 20 years) • changes to economic structure

12. Energy and emissions security lacking • Greenhouse emissions increase with population, even with increasing efficiency • Dependence on foreign oil grows strongly, assuming it is available Australian Stocks and Flows Framework

13. Pressure on water supply increases with population size • Gross water use increases: urban use overtakes rural use • Rural and urban water supply is threatened under population growth and climate change (A1FI)

14. Personal (average) wealth doubles in 5 decades, but is hardly different for big or small populations • Little economic advantage to larger population • per person, in a larger economy there is no extra money to deal with larger environmental problems Australian Stocks and Flows Framework

15. Growing economy is based on providing jobs, for a larger and more efficient workforce • Labour productivity increases: 1% pa • Efficiency of energy and material use increases: 20% by 2030 • Unemployment kept at 5% • Foreign debt kept at 50% of GDP

16. What could achieve sustainability? Efficiency: doubled energy, fuels and materials; all sectors Renewable electricity: wind, solar, gas Population: stablized @ 21 million halve birth rate; zero net immigration Consumption: halved goods; house size, travel Work week: 3 day working week 4 day “leisure”

17. Energy and emissions security substantially improved • Stabilised population • Technological transition to renewables and high efficiency • Lifestyle change – working less (~3 days/week @ 2050) • GHG emissions approach suggested reduction targets (60-90%) • Reliance on oil is much lower Australian Stocks and Flows Framework

18. Pressure on water resources eased • River flow can almost be stabilised

19. Personal (average) wealth can be maintained in an alternative economy • GDP per capita stabilised with technology/investment, changed lifestyle, and stable population • “Steady-state Economy” (Herman Daly)

20. Applications • Victorian Electricity Generation • 100% Renewable National Power • National Sustainability • Food Security Australian Stocks and Flows Framework

21. Food security – sustainable supply of nutritious diet • A nutritious diet simulated • Three scenarios (generated in workshops) • Adjustment (free-market & high-tech) • Control (big government projects) • DIY (local scale) Australian Stocks and Flows Framework

22. Net Food Availability is a challenge in each scenario • Significant tensions in providing a surplus of the core foods, particularly fruit and vegetables, nuts, cereal grains (if biofuels used) and milk (due to transfer of land to F&V) Australian Stocks and Flows Framework

23. Other security challenges exist e.g., • Climate • Water • Labour • Oil Declining Australian production Australian Stocks and Flows Framework

24. No scenario produces ideal security Control Adjustment DIY Australian Stocks and Flows Framework

25. Food Security, Revisited • Model upgrades • version 4 operational + • alternative agriculture (e.g., urban; regen’) • food processing & consumption • freight distribution • Assumptions refined • Scenario tensions resolved • Scenarios tested for shocks Australian Stocks and Flows Framework

26. Coupling dynamic physical and economic models • UNEP project on Asia-Pacific • Prof. Steven Keen: Monetary Circuit Theory • flows of money (the ‘financial’ economy) • stocks (bank accounts) and flows of money for • firms, workers, bankers • lines of credit for firms money created Australian Stocks and Flows Framework

27. Coupling dynamic physical and economic models introduces cycles • Three scenarios: • BAU • High resource efficiency • System innovation Australian Stocks and Flows Framework

28. Selected Applications and Reports • Food security • Larsen, Kirsten , Turner, Graham, Ryan, Chris, & Lawrence, Mark. (2011). Victorian Food Supply Scenarios: Impacts on Availability of a Nutritious Diet (pp. 121). Melbourne: Victorian Eco-Innovation Lab (University of Melbourne), CSIRO and Deakin University for the Victorian Health Promotion Agency (VicHealth). • Population and national sustainability • Turner, Graham M. (2010). Environmental Implications of Alternative Immigration Levels Simulated with the Australian Stocks and Flows Framework: A report for the National Institute of Labour Studies, Flinders University; and the Department of Immigration and Citizenship. Canberra: CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems. • Foran, B. and Poldy, F. (2002) 'Future Dilemmas: Options to 2050 for Australia's Population, Technology, Resources and Environment'.CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems, Canberra. http://www.cse.csiro.au/research/futures/futuredilemmas/index.htm • Resource Efficiency • Turner, G. M., Keen, S. and Poldy, F. (2011). Integrated Biophysical and Economic Modelling of the Asia-Pacific Nations. Resource Efficiency: Economics and Outlook for Asia and the Pacific (United Nations Environment Program). H. Schandl. Canberra, CSIRO Publishing: 153-180. • Employment • Hatfield-Dodds, S., Turner, G. M., Schandl, H. and Doss, T. (2008) 'Growing the Green Collar Economy: Skills and labour challenges in reducing our greenhouse emissions and national environmental footprint'.Report to the Dusseldorp Skills Forum, Canberra. • Treasury reporting • Hatfield-Dodds, S., Poldy, F. and Turner, G. (2007) 'Environmental Indicators, for Commonwealth Federal Treasury Intergenerational Report 2007'.CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems, Canberra • State of Environment reporting • Turner, G. M., Poldy, F. and West, J. (2007) 'Victorian State of the Environment; Materials Stocks and Flows'. for Office of the Commissioner for Sustainability, Melbourne, Victoria. • Sustainability Policy • Dunlop, M., Poldy, F. and Turner, G. (2005) 'Environmental Sustainability Issues Analysis; Report for the Victorian Department of Sustainability and Environment'.CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems • Water, Energy, Climate change • Kenway, S., Turner, G., Cook, S. and Baynes, T. M. (2008) 'Water-Energy futures for Melbourne: the effect of water strategies, water use and urban form. OctoberCSIRO Water for a Healthy Country) • Transport • Turner, G., Foran, B. and Poldy, F. (2002) 'Demography to 2051: Impacts of the VHST Development - Phases Two & Three'.CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems, Canberra • Agriculture • Dunlop, M. and Turner, G. (2003) 'Future Sustainability of the Australian Grains Industry; report for the Grains Council of Australia'.CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems • Fisheries • Lowe, D., Poldy, F., Kearney, B., Foran, B. and Turner, G. (2003) 'Australian Fish Futures: 2020 and Beyond; Report to the Fisheries Research and Development Corporation'.CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems

29. Thank You Dr Graham Turner EA.Research@earthaccounts.wordpress.com Australian Stocks and Flows Framework