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Lecture 12 Income and Living Standards

Lecture 12 Income and Living Standards. Se Yan. The Escape from Hunger and Premature Death, 1700-2100: Europe, America, and the Third World . New York: Cambridge University Press, 2004. Robert Fogel. What Can Money Buy?. better (and more) food and water less crowded, cleaner housing

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Lecture 12 Income and Living Standards

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  1. Lecture 12Income and Living Standards Se Yan

  2. The Escape from Hunger and Premature Death, 1700-2100: Europe, America, and the Third World. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2004. Robert Fogel

  3. What Can Money Buy? • better (and more) food and water • less crowded, cleaner housing • no work away from home for mother • no work for children

  4. NYC, 1890 NYC, 1890

  5. Boys Picking Over Garbage, Boston, 1909

  6. Working on feathers, NYC, 1911, “Dirty floor, vermin abounded, garbage standing uncovered”

  7. How much energy do we require? • BMR (basal metabolic rate)=amt to maintain body temp and sustain functioning of organs (no work) • 1350-2000kcal/day for adult males 20-39 • Depends on age, sex, height, weight • Survival diet is 1.27 BMR

  8. Calories • France • 1753 kcal/capita 1781-90; 1846 in 1803-12 • 2290 kcal/consuming unit • England • 2100 kcal/capita • 2700 kcal/consuming unit • US • 3700 kcal/consuming unit

  9. Why Have Elderly Health and Longevity Increased? Explanations from Union Army Data(Costa 2000) • Infectious disease at older ages AND infectious disease in early life led to chronic disease at older ages • Workers worn out by manual occupations • Improving prenatal and postnatal conditions (proxied by size of city of early residence, season of birth)

  10. Robert Fogel’s Union Army Data • ~36,000 white soldiers • Military records, pension records (including detailed medical records) linked to 1850, 1860, 1880, 1900, and 1910 censuses • ~6,000 black soldiers • Military records and pension records • Will link to detailed post-war medical records and censuses

  11. What has happened over entire century? • Costa (2002): declines in functional limitation of 0.6% per year between 1910 and 1990s • Evidence for recent acceleration • Costa (2000): average decline in chronic respiratory problems, valvular heart disease, arteriosclerosis, and joint and back problems 0.7% per year, 1900s-1970s/1980s

  12. Explaining Chronic Disease Decline • 29% of decline in combined category of respiratory problems, valvular heart disease, CHF, arteriosclerosis, and joint and back problems, 1910-1970s/80s, accounted for by shift from manual to non-manual occupations

  13. A World of Occupational Stress • Manual jobs dominate: • In 1900 38% of labor force farm or farm workers and 70% of male, non-farm labor force manual • In 1990 3% of labor force farm and 52% of male, non-farm labor force manual • Manual jobs not mechanized • Exposure to dust, fumes, and animal and industrial pollutants (both farmers and manual workers)

  14. Plowing, 1868

  15. Plowing, 1910

  16. Plowing, 1940

  17. Explaining Mortality Decline • Declining impact of season of birth accounts for 16-17% of mortality difference between UA and 1960-80 data • Improvements in all measurable early life factors (inc. city size effects) account for perhaps 30% of mortality decline UA and 1970

  18. Underlying Causes Improvements in Early and Late Life Conditions • Economic growth • Less dependent upon seasonal agricultural cycle • Shift from manual to white collar work • Scientific knowledge and health habits • Decline in typhoid mortality even before public health investments

  19. Underlying Causes Improvements in Early and Late Life Conditions • Public health investments • Troesken (2004), Costa and Kahn (2004), Bleakley (2002) • Poor and blacks biggest beneficiaries because had fewest self-protection options • Public willingness to invest because of fear of infection but expenditures undertaken by cities low relative to value of lives saved (Costa and Kahn 2006)

  20. Trends • Life expectancy • Rising at increasing rate • Height • sharp increase heights of cohorts born 1900-1970, leveling since 1970 • BMI • Becoming heavier

  21. US Life Expectancy, Age 60, White and Non-white

  22. Life Expectancy at Age 65, Selected Countries

  23. Malthusian Economics and the Demographic Transition (mainly fertility)

  24. Why care about population and trends • Population inhibits/promotes growth • Ratio old to young • Growth models • Social security • 500-750 population cycles • Epidemics – trade and people did not have immunities to world disease pool • After 1750 population takes off (agriculatural revolution

  25. 2 concepts • Why sudden population growth? What relative role of fertility vs mortality? • Demographic transition • Shift high mortality/high fertility regime to low mortality/low fertility regime • Does fertility or mortality change first • What is driving shifts? • Household economics • Economic-biological theories

  26. Malthusian theory • Population rises geometrically • Food supply rises arithmetically • How bring population and food supply into balance? • Positive check • Preventive check

  27. Testing Malthus • Wrigley and Schofield (1981) on England • First to re-construct a country’s population • The Old View was that 1741-1841 not much change in birth rates, decline in death rates • New View was that more rapid increase in fertility but mortality similar so population grows more rapidly

  28. What data use to reconstruct population history? • Parish records • Who not in records? • Birth vs baptism • Dissenters (16th-18th c. rising) • Real wage data

  29. Summary Wrigley-Schofield view • Income rises then • Age at marriage falls then • Higher fertility and population then • Pressure on food supply (wages down) then • Marriage rate falls and fertility falls • Falling wages have no effect on mortality

  30. Caveat: Other countries • France: population not rising, because fertility falling (within calculus of choice) • Sweden: little change fertility, but mortality falling

  31. Richard Steckel and Jerome Rose (eds.), The Backbone of History: Health and Nutrition in the Western Hemisphere (7000 BP – 1900 AD), Cambridge University Press, 2002 • Largest collection of skeletal microdata ever assembled: 12,500 skeletons, 65 sites, 7 millennia • Uniform methodology: 24 bio-archaeologists, 6 historians Fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americas

  32. Subject:The human skeleton.Microdata:source for studying health, nutrition and demographic dynamics Fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americas

  33. 4 measures of health and nutrition • Porotic hyperostosis • Degenerative joint disease (limbs, spine) • Dental disease • Stature Fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americas

  34. Hard Times in Ancient Americas • Skeletal archaeology shows porotic hyperostosis as nearly universal —perhaps due to extreme dependence on corn. Fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americas

  35. Porotic Hyperostosis: a physiological adaptation to inadequate absorption of oxygen • High frequency: 1/3 – 1/12 of adults in these communities show signs of extraordinary bone remodeling. • Worsened over time: as the transition to sedentary agriculture proceeded (1-3,000 BP), physiological conditions deteriorated. • No gendered difference: “A near complete absence of sex differentials in pathologies is surprising.” Fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americas

  36. Degenerative joint disease (DJD) • DJD: 10-20% of adults of both sexes. • From age 20, hard, repetitive work exacted severe wear on both sexes, particularly of joints required for mobility, manipulation of objects, and carrying loads. • Genderdifferences:statisticallysignificantin DJD andcranialfractures. Fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americas

  37. Degenerativejoint disease, spine:picture worsens • Generally high levels ranging from 25 to 83% for adults from the Mesoamerican sites—a ubiquitous affliction, principally due to hard labor. • “Where the means of carrying heavy burdens is almost solely the human body, an enormous biological cost is exacted from the organism.” Fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americas

  38. Shovel shaped incisors:genetictrait of Native Americans Fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americas

  39. Severe dental disease was common in societies based on corn Fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americas

  40. Stature, 3 features stand out: • 1. Males decline over time in mean height: 1 cm. per thousand years--due to worsening nutrition? • 2. Female stature constant over time even from pre-historic period. • 3. Males show decreasing stature from north (164 cm) to south (161 cm). Fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americas

  41. Three conclusions • Great variations in fertility • Ancient times, • low pressure demographic regime: • fertility was a brake on population growth • Classic times, • high pressure demographic system: • higher fertility, low life expectancy • mortality was the brake on pop. growth Fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americas

  42. Three conclusions 2. Agriculture was the “caboose” of demographic change, not the “engine” • Agriculture seems to have evolved as a response to demographic pressure • Rather than propelling demographic transformations. • Why? Because in classic times demographic transformations occurred in all settlement types. Fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americas

  43. Three conclusions 3. Modern period: fundamental demography of native peoples did not change with the clash of biospheres • Paleodemographic method is insensitive to demographic catastrophe—unless a mass grave is found • Underlying fundamentals persisted for almost a thousand years (til 1800) Fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americas

  44. Postscript: Blame Colombus? • Demographic catastrophe was real—the debate is about magnitude and cause(s) • Magnitude: extinction for many smaller populations (e.g, Tainos); 1/3-3/4 loss for larger populations (Aztecs). • Cause(s): the great debate—disease? War/pacification/exploitation? Both? • Varied place-to-place: Hispaniola: exploitation, not disease… Fertility: the regulator of demographic dynamics in the Ancient Americas

  45. Wages, Prices, and Living Standards in China, Japan, and Europe, 1738-1925 Robert C. Allen et al

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