Bioenergy : managing risks and opportunities

1. Bioenergy :managing risks and opportunities • opportunity to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and provide development benefits (e.g. access to energy; rural development) • risk of the world winding up in a zero sum game where one environmental or social problem substitutes for another; largely due to potential competition for increasingly scarce resources, including land and water with impacts on climate change, biodiversity, long-term food security, land rights, etc. • a highly complex issue where choices in terms of location, pathways, business models and end uses matter delivering on the promiserequires careful planning and management, based on solid science, both on the national and project levels

2. too much of a good thing? Trends and drivers Life cycle wide environmental impacts of biofuels Land use change and implications Options for more efficient and sustainable resource use Strategies and measures to enhance resource productivity

3. Global population is expected to grow by 36% between 2000 and 2030 (medium projection of UN/FAO). Average crop yields are expected to increase at about the same rate. However, relative yield increases have in general weakend (estimates for global yields in the next decade predict 1-1.1% p.a. growth for cereals). Meat consumption is expected to increase by 22% per capita between 2000-2030, which requires more cropland for feed. Effects ofclimate change will put further pressure on yield improvements and availability of arable land. Feeding the world population will require the expansion of global cropland. Additional demand for non-food biomass will add on top of this. Bioenergy potential has to be assessed in light of global trends: population growth, nutrition, yields Development of global population, agriculture land and consumption per person in the past (1960-2005) Sources: UN population statistics online; FAOSTAT online

4. Biofuels may make a difference – life cycle wide GHG emissions vary Life-cycle assessments (LCA) of biofuels show a wide range of net GHG balances compared to traditional fuels, depending on feedstock, conversion technology, and methodological assumptions. Highest GHG savings are for sugar cane (70 to +100%), biogas from manure, and ethanol from residues. Lowest savings, and sometimes even higher GHG emissions than fossil fuels occur when production takes place on converted natural land. Greenhouse gas savings of biofuels compared to fossil fuels

5. Water - a potentially limiting factor Already water is a scarce resource in many places. Agriculture is already the biggest user of freshwater resources; expanding and intensifying bioenergy production could add to existing pressures. As the integrity of water systems declines, they are less able to provide fundamental ecosystem services such as the provision of clean water, natural filtration services, natural habitat for fisheries etc. Global challenges such as climate change, population growth, change in living standards and energy demand will further impact the world’s water supplies.

6. … there can also be benefits generate investment in efficient water infrastructure certain feedstocks can help regulate local water cycles and groundwater replenishment levels, especially in arid and semi-arid environments bioenergy can help run water pumps and equipment to clean water … and mitigation options • matching feedstocks with geo-climatic conditions; consider and research feedstocks that require less water; Integrated Water Resource Management • efficiency in water use in cultivation and conversion, e.g. rainwater harvesting, drip irrigation, reclaimed water use, closed systems • limiting fertilizer and pesticide inputs, e.g. nitrogen fixing crops in multi-cropping systems; precision agriculture to limit overall agrochemical use

7. Variation in blue water footprint for selected energy crops

8. Land - a potentially limiting factor Conservative estimates of projected land use for biofuel crops vary between 35- 166 Mha for 2020. Estimates of long-term potential land requirements for biofuels vary widely and depend on the basic assumptions made - mainly type of feedstock, geographical location and level of input and yield increase. Ravindranath et al (2009) estimated that 118-508 Mha would be required in 2030 to provide 10% of transport fuel demand with 1st gen biofuels. For comparison, total cropland is about 1,500 ha. Land use change has a range of potential implications, including on GHG balance and biodiversity. The drive to meet the demand for palm oil is resulting in conversion of forested areas into palm oil plantations. These satellite images reveal how a combination of transmigration, logging interests, and palm oil plantation development have transformed an area that was previously tropical lowland rain and swamp forest. Source: UNEP Atlas One Planet - Many People

9. Energy Trends Biofuels provide about 3% of global road transport fuels. In 2011, biodiesel expanded and ethanol production was stable or down slightly compared with in 2010, for the first time in a decade. Gaseous biofuels’ and wood pellets’ quantities are limited but growing; the latter production doubling since 2008. Biofuel mandates open a 220 billion litre market by 2022. Ren21 GSR 2012 Biomass power was the third largest sector for total renewable energy investment in 2011, even though its share fell 12% to USD 10.6 billion. Asset finance declined. Venture capital, private equity and R&D increased. Ren21 GSR 201 Thanks to new technologies by 2050, 32 exajoules of biofuels will be used globally, providing 27% of world transport fuel. IEA Biofuel Roadmap

10. FOOD AND AGRICULTURE Price volatility Yield developments Loss of cropland area Demand increases and changing diets Climate change Sources: UN population statistics online; FAOSTAT online Access to markets Development of global population, agriculture land and consumption , per person (1960-2005) Food Waste

11. Options • for more efficient and sustainable resource use • Improving the production of biomass : • Increasing yields and optimizing agricultural production • Restoring formerly degraded land • More efficient use of biomass: • Use of waste and production residues • Cascading use of biomass • Stationary use of bioenergy Considering different pathways: • Mineral based solar energy systems

12. project level • applying sustainability principles, criteria and indicators in: planning, design and implementation (producers) / project appraisal (financiers/investors) /licensing (governments) • certification schemes • screening tools / safeguards / scorecard • licensing processes • industry and finance sector interest: good business planning andrisk management; enhance reputation; ensuring market access or a competitive edge • government interest: management of resources • certifications faces some limitations / challenges: • direct vs. indirect impacts • proliferation of schemes (crop-based–biofuels; national–international), and it has already been pointed out that synergies amongst them would be helpful to increase certainty and cost-effectiveness (recent workshops by IDB and UNEP and by IUCN, Packard and Shell)

13. national level process for bioenergy policy context analysis WHY - or why not - bioenergy assessment, mapping, scenarios WHERE, WHAT, HOW • Defining baseline • and potentials • land suitability/competition • technology and crop options • implementation options • mitigation options • Assessing and • matching domestic • pre-conditions and needs in terms of: • energy status quo & needs • energy sources stakeholder engagement WHO risks / trade offs • Designing policy & strategy based on science: • defined policy objectives and trade offs • mitigation options • alternatives to • bioenergy • Assessing investment projects • to make decisions on whether to support them ensure that investment projects fit with the vision design informed policies and strategies

14. Where? Land use. Land use change. Land use planning. conduct a land suitability assessment identify and map areas of special sensitivity, i.e. ‘high risk areas’ in terms of potential damage to vital ecosystem functions identify and map existing agricultural production areas overlay infrastructure information to evaluate market accessibility and the economic feasibility of feedstock production conduct ‘ground-truthing’ in areas with potential for feedstock production, involving local communities and other relevant stakeholders

15. www.bioenergydecisiontool.org a web-based tool and living document developed by FAO and UNEP under the framework of UN Energy to assist countries to manage risks and challenges, in a process anchored in each country’s specific context: step-wise guidance forstrategy formulation and investment decision-making processes repository of technical resources and links to existing tools, guidelines and resources guidance on identification and inclusion of stakeholders in the bioenergy decision-making process and on adopting transparent processes for good governance

16. Global Bioenergy Partnership 24 sustainability indicators lifecycle GHG emissions soil quality harvest levels of wood resources emissions of non-GHG pollutants water use and efficiency water quality biological diversity in the landscape land use and land-use change related to bioenergy feedstock production economic &energy security environmental social allocation and tenure of land for new bioenergy production price and supply of a national food basket change in income jobs in the bioenergy sector change in unpaid time spent by women and children collecting biomass bioenergy to expand access to modern energy services change in mortality and burden of disease attributable to indoor smoke incidence of occupational injury, illness and fatalities productivity net energy balance gross value added change in consumption of fossil fuels and traditional energy use of biomass training and re-qualification of the workforce energy diversity infrastructure and logistics for distribution of bioenergy capacity and flexibility of use of bioenergy

17. Public perception / outlook Emergence of a more balanced approach to risks and opportunities. Yet, uncertainty in the investor community. Recognition of co-existence of two markets: local use and globally traded commodity. Emergence of integrated systems approach to optimise provisioning services of ecosystems, particularly land and water resources, for food, feed, fuel and fibre. Mandates / targets need to be set based on science and sustainably feasible potentials. They need to be flanked by solid sustainability standards on the project level, and embedded in broader low carbon development strategies. Bioenergy policy planning tools and processes are available and increasingly applied.

18. UNEP’s approach to bioenergy Bioenergy is neither good nor bad per se; to avoid unintended consequences in the short and long-term, bioenergy development requires solid planning and management, both on the national policy and strategy and the project levels. Scientific assessments: Tools: International Panel for Sustainable Resource Management: Assessing Biofuels report (2009) The Bioenergy and Water Nexus, UNEP, IEA Bioenergy Task 43, OekoInstitut (2011) Issue Paper series on emerging issues: Land use and land use change ; Bioenergy and Water; Invasive species; Stakeholder consultation; Group Certification; Facilitating Energy Access; REDD+ Assessments & Guidelines for Sustainable Liquid Biofuel Production in Developing Countries, funded by GEF, implemented with FAO and UNIDO, providing guidance on environmental, social and economic performance of biofuel projects. • Global Bioenergy Partnership (GBEP): • Methodological framework for GHG calculations • Sustainability criteria & indicators • Roundtable on Sustainable Biofuels (RSB): • solid multi-stakeholder process • all major issues are covered • UN Energy Decision Support Tool for Sustainable Bioenergy (DST), developed by UNEP and FAO to provide stepwise guidance to decision makers in governments to develop sustainable bioenergy policies and strategies, and to assess investment proposals. Finance: Regional and national support: CASCADe: enhancing African expertise to generate carbon credits in the forestry and bioenergy sectors by providing technical assistance, institutional support and training workshops. Jatropha-based PoA: assessing the feasibility of a CDM Programme of Activities for rural energy generation from Jatropha oil in Mali. African Rural Energy Enterprise Development promoting rural energy enterprises, includes a bioenergy component that allows to demonstrate additional environmental and social benefits resulting from ‘local production for local use’ projects. performance of biofuel projects, using a settings approach. • Bioenergy Policy Support Facility, providing advisory services to governments developing and implementing bioenergy policies, strategies and measures, mobilizing local and international experts: targeted consultations; science-based information for decision making; advice on legal frameworks, planning and management tools; and guidance on processes to facilitate integrated decision-making. • Mapping of land suitable and available for bioenergy development: • Methodology refined (GIS and groundtruthing) • completed in Kenya, Uganda, Senegal

19. Martina Otto Head of Policy Unit, Energy Branch Coordinator Bioenergy martina.otto@unep.org www.unep.fr/energy/bioenergy