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PROCEDURES FOR EVALUATING NEW AIR DISPERSION MODELS

PROCEDURES FOR EVALUATING NEW AIR DISPERSION MODELS. 8 TH MODELING CONFERENCE September 22,23 2005. EVALUATE NEW MODELS. APPENDIX W TO 40 CFR PART 51- GUIDELINE ON AIR QUALITY MODELS-ADDRESSES NEW AIR QUALITY MODELS SECTION 3.1.1

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PROCEDURES FOR EVALUATING NEW AIR DISPERSION MODELS

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  1. PROCEDURES FOR EVALUATING NEW AIR DISPERSION MODELS 8TH MODELING CONFERENCE September 22,23 2005

  2. EVALUATE NEW MODELS • APPENDIX W TO 40 CFR PART 51- GUIDELINE ON AIR QUALITY MODELS-ADDRESSES NEW AIR QUALITY MODELS • SECTION 3.1.1 • SUBSECTION B. WHEN A MODEL IS FOUND TO PERFORM BETTER THAN THE LISTED MODEL, IT IS RECOMMENDEDAS APREFERRED MODEL

  3. EVALUATE NEW MODELS SUBSECTION B. IF NO MODEL PERFORMS BETTER THAN THE CURRENT PREFERRED MODEL, THEN OTHER FACTORS ARE CONSIDERED • PAST USE • PUBLIC FAMILIARITY • RESOURCE REQUIREMENTS • AVAILABILITY

  4. EVALUATE NEW MODELS SUBSECTION C. THE SOLICATION OF NEW REFINED MODELS WHICH ARE BASED ON SOUNDER SCIENTIFIC PRINCIPLES AND MORE RELIABLY ESTIMATE CONCENTRATIONSIS CONTINUOUS.

  5. EVALUATE NEW MODELS SUBSECTION C. THE NEW MODEL MUST: • BE COMPUTERIZED • HAVE A USERS GUIDE • INCLUDES THE MATHEMATICS OF THE MODEL • DATA REQUIREMENTS • OPERATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS • HAVE A COMPLETE SET OF TEST DATA • BE USEFUL TO THE TYPICAL USERS

  6. EVALUATE NEW MODELS SUBSECTION C. THE NEW MODEL MUST: • BE AVAILABLE AT A REASONABLE COST • NOT BE PROPRIETARY • BE SUBJECTED TO A PERFORMANCE EVALUATION • BE SUBJECTED TO A SCIENTIFIC PEER REVIEW

  7. EVALUATE NEW MODELS • SECTION 3.2 ALTERNATIVE MODELS MAY BE USED IF: • THE NEW MODEL PRODUCES EQUIVALENT CONCENTRATIONS; OR, • A PERFORMANCE EVALUATION INDICATES THAT THE NEW MODEL PERFORMS BETTER; OR, • THE PREFERRED MODEL IS LESS APPROPRIATE

  8. EVALUATE NEW MODELS • SECTION 3.2 ALTERNATIVE MODELS • AN EPA PROTOCOL PROVIDES A STATISTICAL TECHNIQUE FOR EVALUATING PERFORMANCE FOR PEAK CONCENTRATIONS • AN ASTM REFERENCE PROVIDES A GENERAL PHILOSOPHY FOR DEVELOPING STATISTICAL EVALUATIONS

  9. EVALUATE NEW MODELS • SECTION 3.2 ALTERNATIVE MODELS. THE ALTERNATIVE MODEL MUST: • HAVE A SCIENTIFIC PEER REVIEW • BE APPLICABLE TO THE PROBLEM • HAVE THE NECESSARY DATA BASES • NOT BE BIASED TOWARD UNDERESTIMATES • HAVE A PROTOCOL ON METHODS AND PROCEDURES

  10. EVALUATE NEW MODELS • THE EPA PROTOCOL • BASED ON FRACTIONAL BIAS: • FB = 2 [PR-OB] / [OB+PR] • BASED ON THE HIGHEST 25 VALUES

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