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The Asian rubber industry: perspectives for consumption, production and prices

ASEAN +3 Rubber Conference Phuket, Thailand 10-12 April 2013 Dr. Hidde Smit. The Asian rubber industry: perspectives for consumption, production and prices. This presentation. Five parts: Aggregate rubber consumption Analysis and perspectives for natural rubber production potential

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The Asian rubber industry: perspectives for consumption, production and prices

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  1. ASEAN +3 Rubber Conference Phuket, Thailand 10-12 April 2013 Dr. Hidde Smit The Asian rubber industry:perspectives for consumption, production and prices

  2. This presentation Five parts: Aggregate rubber consumption Analysis and perspectives for natural rubber production potential Market developments, oil prices and natural and synthetic rubber prices Natural rubber consumption and production Potential scenarios and strategies

  3. Part 1. Aggregate rubber consumption

  4. World rubber consumption,% annual growth

  5. Total rubber consumption

  6. Total rubber consumption

  7. Total rubber consumption

  8. Growth of total rubber usage

  9. Part 2. Analysis and perspectives for NR production potential • A general framework for natural rubber supply analysis is presented • The trend in production will be called normal production • Production exceeds normal production at high prices • And vice versa

  10. Normal production levels are analysed using the vintage approach The vintage approach derives and includes per country • The composition of the total area for natural rubber according to the year of planting (the vintages) • The average yield profile for a hectare of rubber during its life • Technical progress in quality of clones affecting yield profiles of hectares planted in various years

  11. Natural rubber planting, Thailandsource data: country statistics, Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries, with adjustments and own estimates

  12. Natural rubber area (‘000 ha) and production (‘000 tonnes), Thailand

  13. Natural rubber planting, Indonesiasource data: country statistics, Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries, with adjustments and own estimates

  14. Natural rubber area (‘000 ha) and production (‘000 tonnes), Indonesia

  15. Natural rubber planting, Malaysiasource data: country statistics, Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries, with adjustments and own estimates

  16. Natural rubber area (‘000 ha) and production (‘000 tonnes), Malaysia

  17. Natural rubber planting, Indiasource data: country statistics, Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries, with adjustments and own estimates

  18. Natural rubber area (‘000 ha) and production (‘000 tonnes), India

  19. Natural rubber planting, Vietnamsource data: country statistics, Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries, with adjustments and own estimates

  20. Natural rubber area (‘000 ha) and production (‘000 tonnes), Vietnam

  21. Natural rubber planting, Chinasource data: country statistics, Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries, with adjustments and own estimates

  22. Natural rubber area (‘000 ha) and production (‘000 tonnes), China

  23. Natural rubber planting, Cambodiasource data: country statistics, Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries, with adjustments and own estimates

  24. Natural rubber area (‘000 ha) and production (‘000 tonnes), Cambodia

  25. Natural rubber planting, Philippinessource data: country statistics, Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries, with adjustments and own estimates

  26. Natural rubber area (‘000 ha) and production (‘000 tonnes), Philippines

  27. Natural rubber planting, Myanmarsource data: country statistics, Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries, with adjustments and own estimates

  28. Natural rubber area (‘000 ha) and production (‘000 tonnes), Myanmar

  29. Natural rubber production, Laos

  30. Global NR normal production to reach 18.5 million t. by 2025; actual production may be higher or lower depending on prices

  31. Growth in normal production of NR

  32. Part 3. Market developments, oil prices and natural and synthetic rubber prices

  33. Future growth in total rubber consumption (IRSG) and normal production of NR

  34. Developments in NR and SR prices:NR prices based on supply and demandSR prices largely based on costs with a little influence of the market

  35. The price of oil,forecasts based on US-EIA

  36. The price of Butadiene, supply constraints may push the price higher

  37. SBR prices, increasing to $4.00 in 2025; NR prices declining to $2.20 and recovering to $3.75

  38. NR share in consumption,increasing to maximum 47%

  39. Part 4.Natural rubber consumption and production

  40. Natural rubber consumption

  41. Natural rubber consumption

  42. Natural rubber consumption

  43. World rubber consumption 2025: NR 19.3, SR 22.2, total 41.5

  44. Natural rubber production

  45. Natural rubber production

  46. Part 5. Potential scenarios and strategies

  47. Buffer stocksThe Thailand government bufferstock is estimated at 200,000 tonnes by the end of 2012. This scenario assesses the potential effect of an additional purchase of 200,000 tonnes in 2013; the accumulated 400,000 tonnes to be disposed evenly during 2014 and 2015.

  48. NR prices and BS:prices 2012: +0.28, 2013: +0.29,2014: -0.26, 2015: -0.21, 2016: +0.27

  49. Enhanced replanting program for Thailand

  50. Average age at uprooting, Thailand base down to 29.5 years, scenario 28 years

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