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The effect of climate change on water in China

The effect of climate change on water in China. Reporter ： Yongjian Ding. Contributors ： S. Liu, B. Ye, L. Zhao, Q. Zhao, Z. Wang, G. Yang. State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, CAS. 21. Jun. 2011, Tehran.

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The effect of climate change on water in China

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  1. The effect of climate change on water in China Reporter：Yongjian Ding Contributors：S. Liu, B. Ye, L. Zhao, Q. Zhao, Z. Wang, G. Yang State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, CAS 21. Jun. 2011, Tehran

  2. Climate change and hydrological regime • The effect of Cryosphere change • Management for water resources and ecosystem in West China

  3. Annual discharge in main rivers over China during 1951-2008 The most river show discharge decrease except for Xinjiang region, Yaluzangbu and downstream of Yangtze River

  4. The trend of annual precipitation during 1951-2004 over China（mm/10a) The precipitation show consistent increase in West China

  5. The monthly precipitation change over China during 1951-2003 The trend of precipitation (a) from Jan to Jul. and (b) from Aug. to Dec during 1951－2003 The precipitation from Aug. and Dec. is decrease in most regions of China

  6. The month discharge trends at Yellow, Yangtze and other River during 1951-98 Reservoirs regulation Water use The monthly discharge shows negative trends in later year in most rivers

  7. Annual change of dischare for Xingjiang and upper reach of Yellow River Negative relationship between XJ and UHR

  8. The monthly discharge average before and after 1987at upper Yellow River The hydrological regime has shifted from two peaks to one peak due to precipitation decrease in fall

  9. 55 negagive 50 positive 45 40 35 30 <-0.3 -0.3~-0.2 25 -0.2~0 0~0.2 0.2~0.4 20 >0.4 ?<0.05 15 70 80 90 100 110 Relationship among discharge of upper Yellow River and other main rivers in west China

  10. Relationship between discharge at upper Yellow River and Northwest Pacific monsoon index It shows East Asian monsoon impact Strongly on runoff at upper Yellow River

  11. Vector diagram of summer wind velocity at 600mb during 1951-2008 Westerly influences obviously on rivers in Xingjiang and Xizang, and monsoon influences strongly on Yellow river and Yangtze river East Asian monsoon Southwest monsoon

  12. Global temperature change over 100 year（Jones, 2003） 升温期 降温期

  13. Warm-wet/cool-dry Warm-dry/cool-wet Relationship between global mean temperature and annual precipitation(1950-2003) It shows regional change feature of precipitation in China with global warming

  14. Combination of dry-wet conditions for temperature rising period and declining period Warm-wet/cool-dry Warm-dry/cool-wet mixed

  15. Mean summer wind speed at 500mb toward latitudeduring 1951-2008 • Mean summer wind speed at 500mbtoward longitude during 1951-2008 • Warm-wet/cool-dry areas in southeast and southwest is corresponding to two higher centers of latitude wind • Warm-wet/cool-dry areas in north is corresponding to higher center of longitude wind, i.e.westerly controled area

  16. Response of runoff to climate change：warm-wet/cool-dry

  17. Response of runoff to climate change：warm-dry/cool-wet

  18. Response of runoff to climate change：mixed zone

  19. Stable Unstable No Snow Permafrost Seasonal frozen ground Instant frozen ground No frozen ground The cryosphere in China Glacier Permafrost Snow cover Area：2.2×106km2 (23% of China area) Ground ice:9500km3 Area：4.2×106km2 (44% of China area) SWE：75km3 Number: 46377 Area： 59425km2 Volume: 5600km3 (5 times of Yangtze River discharge) 中国是中、低纬度地区冰冻圈最发育的国家之一

  20. Glacier Change in last 50 year. (1). First glacier inventory over China (1960-1970’s) (Shi et al., 2008) (2). Second glacier Inventory using remote sensing data during 2000’s)

  21. Glacier Change in last 50 year. The glacier area change in China during last 50 years (Ding et al., 2006; Liu et al., 2006a, b; Ren et al., 2006; Xiao et al., 2007; Pu et al., 2007; He et al., 2008) • The glacier area reduced by 16.4% in past 50 years in China (0.46%/a) • The glacier retreat has large special various. • The glacier retreat is smaller in center Tibet Plateau than the area around the Tibet Plateau

  22. Permafrost Change in last 50 year. Permafrost monitor Permafrost distribution map with elevation in Central Asia and and locations of boreholes (Zhao et al., 2010)

  23. Permafrost Change in last 50 year. Permafrost Change temperature at the bottom of active layer mean annual ground temperature at 50cmm active-layer thickness The thermal state of the active layer at sites along the Qinghai–Tibet Highway: (a) mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) at the bottom of the active layer (TTOP); (b) MAGT at 50 cm below surface (MAGT50); (c) active-layer thickness (ALT).

  24. Permafrost Change in last 50 year. Permafrost Change Lower altitudinal limit of permafrost change (M) • The temperature at the bottom of active layer has increased between 0.02 and 0.19℃ /a • The Active layer increased about 4cm/a during 1999-2007 • Lower altitudinal limit of permafrost has increased by 40-80m during last 40a

  25. Xinjiang Northeast Tibet Plateau Snow Cover Change in last 50 year. Snow Cover Change • There is three snow cover regions in China • Xinjiang • Norhteast China • Qinghai-Xizang Plateau The map of annual maximum snow water equivalent over China (Che et al., 2004)

  26. Snow Cover Change in last 50 year. Snow Cover Change • Xinjiang: Snow cover has no obvious change during 1951-1997 • Qinghai-Xizang Plateau: Snow cover has obvious increase • Northwest China: Snow cover has slight increase Annual cumulative snow depth (m) （Qin Dahe，2005；Ding Yongjan, 2009)

  27. The effects of cryosphere change in China Water Glacier change effect on the Arid interior River Permafrost change effect on ecosystem in cold region Ecosystem Environment disaster and carbon cycle Climate Snow and permafrost strongly affect on climate over China

  28. The effects of cryosphere change in China Water Glacier change effect on the Arid interior River Permafrost change effect on ecosystem in cold region Ecosystem Environment disaster and carbon cycle Climate Snow and permafrost strongly affect on climate over China The report focused on the effects on water and ecosystem

  29. Cryosphere and Water Yenisey R. Ob R./ Irtysh R. Balkhash L./ YIli River Cryosphere in China Yellow R. Indus River Yangtze R. Yaluzangbu/ Brahmaputra R. Ganges Nu/Salween R. Langcang/Mekong Large rivers in Asia are from the Cryosphere in China

  30. Glacier runoff Time Cryosphere and Water • The snowmelt contributs to more than 38% of water in West China • Glacier runoff contributs to 25-29% of the discharge in mountain regions in northwest arid China • Glacier runoff contributs up to 40％ of river discharge in Tarim Basin • Glacier strongly regulates the river discharge The Cryosphere change strongly affects on water resources in arid regions in China

  31. Glacier Tail-end lake Permafrost Cryosphere Oasis Desert Grass/Forest Focus The effect of cryosphere change on hydrology and ecosystem What is the influence of snow cover? How the Glacier runoff affects river discharge? How the permafrost influences on the hydrology and ecosystem?

  32. Method Simulation + Statistics Method RS、GIS、GPS Technique Field observation Base Akesu Shule River Urumqi RIver Dongkemadi in Yangtze River Source

  33. (1). The effect of glacier change in hydrology

  34. Degree-day model (DDM) in site DDM in basin Temp.： Prec.： Ablation： B： Runoff： Observed data T P A and B Boundary DEM R and B Degree-day factor (DDF) 0.5-9.0 R and B for whole basin B ∆S Kt Kp A Estimation of glacier runoff

  35. The effect of glacier runoff change -Tarim Basin The simulated Glacier runoff and observed runoff at river outlet in 4 main branches in Tarim Basin • The river runoff has increased by 22% during 1962-2008 • 2/3 of increased part are from glacier runoff increase (Liu et al., 2006)

  36. The effect of glacier runoff change -Akesu River The projected glacier runoff by 2050 in Akesu River under different scenarios (related to runoff during 1961-1990) Glacier in Akesu: Mean area:2.4km2 Max Area:393km2 The glacier runoff will increase in following 40 years in Akesu river

  37. The effect of glacier runoff change -The Yangtze River source • The river runoff decreased by 13.9% while the glacier runoff increased by 15.2% from1961-1990 to 1990-2000 The river runoff and glacier runoff at Zhimenda station in the Yangtze River source in recent 40a (Liu Shiyin, 2009)

  38. The effect of glacier runoff change -The Yangtze River source The projected glacier runoff by 2050 in the Yangtze River source under different scenarios (related to runoff during 1961-1990) Glacier: Mean area:2.0km2 Max Area:53km2 The glacier runoff will increase in the following 40 years in the Yangtze river source (Zhang Yong, 2008)

  39. The effect of glacier runoff change -The Urumqi River source The accumulation and ablation during 1958-2004 in the Urumqi River source Glacier No. 1 The runoff increased by 35% during 1996-2005 comparing to 1980-1995; 37% of the increased part is from precipitation increase, 63% is from glacier mass loss (Ye Baisheng , 2005)

  40. The effect of glacier runoff change -The Urumqi River source More than 80% glaciers is smaller than 1km2 in the basin The glacier runoff can reach the peak in the following 20a

  41. Shule Dang Baida Hei Shiyang Mass Balance The effect of glacier runoff change -The Hexi Corridor The decade mass balance during 1961-2006 in interior in Hexi Corridor

  42. The effect of glacier runoff change -The Hexi Corridor Glacier: Mean area:0.46km2 All glacier is smaller than 1km2 The projected glacier runoff by 2050 in the Shiyang River in Hexi Corridor under different scenarios (related to runoff during 1961-1990) The glacier runoff peak maybe already occurred under climate warming due to quick response of small glacier

  43. The effect of glacier runoff change • The glacier runoff peak caused by climate warming has occurred or will soon appeared in the basin with small glacier • The glacier runoff will continuously increase and can not reach its peak within future 50a under climate warming in the basin with large glacier

  44. (2). The effect of snow cover change on hydrology

  45. The effect of snowmelt runoff The monthly discharge change ofmain rivers in west China during 1951－2006 The Yellow River source Irtysh River Yerqiang River Yaluzangbu River

  46. The effect of snowmelt runoff Decade-mean Monthly discharge at Aletai station in Kelan River (branch of Irtysh River during 1959-2005 • The max. dicharge occured earlier due to early snowmelt • The max. dicharge also increased by 15% due to rich snow • The discharge during April-June (snowmelt season) changed from 60% to 70% of annual discharge • The early snowmelt lead to discharge decrease in summer, the hydrological regime change (Shen Yongping, 2007)

  47. (3). The effect of permafrost degradation on hydrology and ecosystem

  48. Permafrost and hydrology The hydrological regime in rivers in Siberia with different coverage of permafrost (CP) The CP strongly influence on the hydrological regime High CP, high peak flow and low basin flow

  49. High CP Low CP Permafrost and hydrology The Qman/Qmin v. coverage of permafrost • The hydrological regime is mostly controlled by coverage of permafrost (CP) in basin with CP higher than 60% • The permafrost degradation caused large regime change in high CP basin, but no effect on regime in low CP(<30%) basin (Ye Baisheng, 2009)

  50. Permafrost and hydrology The climate warming, consequently permafrost degradation, causes the more flat hydrological regime The Qmax/Qmin at Changmapu in Shulehe and at Yinluoxia in Heihe Rivers during past 60a

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