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Indications and Warning of Pandemic Influenza Compared to Seasonal Influenza

Introduction. Three Influenza Pandemics in the 20th Century1918 Spanish Influenza (A/H1N1)~50 million deaths globally1957 Asian Influenza (A/H2N2) ~2 million deaths globally, ~70K deaths in the US1968 Hong Kong Influenza (A/H3N2)~1 millions deaths globally, ~34K deaths in the US . Intro

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Indications and Warning of Pandemic Influenza Compared to Seasonal Influenza

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    1. Indications and Warning of Pandemic Influenza Compared to Seasonal Influenza Authors: Aimee Reilly, Emily Iarocci, Carrianne Jung, David Hartley, Noele Nelson Pandemic Influenza Research Case Study Group Presenter: Noele Nelson, MD, PhD Deputy Director, Division Integrated Biodefense ISIS Center, Georgetown University

    2. Introduction Three Influenza Pandemics in the 20th Century 1918 Spanish Influenza (A/H1N1) ~50 million deaths globally 1957 Asian Influenza (A/H2N2) ~2 million deaths globally, ~70K deaths in the US 1968 Hong Kong Influenza (A/H3N2) ~1 millions deaths globally, ~34K deaths in the US

    3. Introduction “When” (not “if”) will the world experience the next pandemic influenza? Concerns regarding the recently emerged avian A/H5N1 Severity will depend on a variety of factors Molecular, social, economic, medical, and public health

    4. Background Early warning of potential outbreaks and situational awareness is critical Effective, real-time global influenza surveillance We have taken a novel approach Monitor media sources for markers of social disruption indicative of anomalous disease activity Develop an indications and warning (I&W) taxonomy of pandemic influenza Identify pandemic I&W signature, compare to seasonal year Study period: 1967-68

    5. Methodology Collection Focus on Southeast Asia Hong Kong, Southern China ~120 source-months of articles from 1967-1968 Library of Congress, Georgetown University Library 1 Chinese and 4 English language sources China News, China Mail, Hong Kong Tiger Standard, South China Morning Post (SCMP), Xin Wan Bao (Chinese)

    6. Methodology Pandemic Influenza Taxonomy 91 parameters Disease, region and culture specific Direct Indicators Indirect Indicators (social disruption factors)

    7. Methodology - Pandemic Taxonomy

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