ZARAGOZA ESPAÑA

1. ZARAGOZA ESPAÑA 6 – 8 OCTUBRE 2004

2. WATER CONFLICT ANDCOOPERATION:The Transition to a Purposeful Future Evan Vlachos Sociology & Civil Engineering Colorado State University and Unesco PC-CP and WWAP

3. A. PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT IN THE 21 CENTURY • = Rapid Change and Complexification • = Sharing Water: Reasonable and Equitable Distribution • B. THE SEARCH FOR IMPROVED DECISION MAKING • = Sources of Stresses and Strains • = On Volatility and Vulnerability • THE RANGE OF PUBLIC ENGAGEMENT • = From Concerns, to Contestation, to Conflict • = Strategies and Tactics for Conflict Management • EMERGING PARADIGMS IN PARTICIPATORY P&M • = Addressing Complexity and Uncertainty • = Envisioning, Empowerment, Enactment ST

4. Premises of Foresight 1. Trend is not destiny

5. Premises of Foresight 1. Trend is not destiny 2. Those who live by the crystal ball are bound to eat groundglass

6. Premises of Foresight 1. Trend is not destiny 2. Those who live by the crystal ball are bound to eat groundglass 3. It is better to be approximately right rather than precisely wrong

7. The Variety of “Shocks” in Current Society • Cultural Shock = technophobes and technophiles • Future Shock = “raplexity” • Information Shock = data and knowledge • Geopolitical Shocks = fragmentation and globalization

9. Population Experiencing Freshwater Scarcity, 1990 - 2050.

13. The International River Basin In the international arena, particularly in conditions of water scarcity, the difficulties of water management and planning are compounded by several factors: • Relationships of power, position and interest • Territorial jurisdictional and ownership disputes • Political and ideological rivalries and geopolitical setting • Absence of effective institutional legal machinery for settling riparian disputes • Deeply rooted cultural and social attitudes toward water that make change difficult (hydroculture)

14. Theoretical Model of the Sources of Conflict Over International River Basins Non-Cooperative Setting 1. Pre-existing general antagonism among riparian nations 2. Little previous progress in regional management of river issues Environmental Imbalance 1. Perceived growing scarcity of usable water 2. Perceived growing inequality in distribution of usable water Power Asymmetry 1. Skewed power ratio among riparian nations 2. Little restraining reciprocal interdependence among riparian nations

21. Archetypal Worldviews Worldview Antecedents Philosophy Motto Market optimism; hidden & enlightened hand Conventional Worlds Market Policy Reform Smith Don’t worry, be happy Keynes Bundtland Policy stewardship Growth, environment, equity through better technology & management Existential gloom; population/resource catastrophe Barbarization Breakdown Fortress World Malthus The end is coming Hobbes Social Chaos; nasty nature of man Order through strong leaders Pastoral romance; human goodness; evil of industrialism Great Transitions Eco-communalism New Sustainability Paradigm Morris & social utopians Ghandhi Small is beautiful Human solidarity, new values, the art of living Sustainability as progressive global social evolution Mill Muddling Through Your brother-in- law (probably Que sera, sera No grand philosophies Source: Great Transition [SEI, 2002]

22. The Grand Transformation • Complexity • Uncertainty • Turbulence • Globalization • Interdependence • Vulnerability Complexification

24. Generalized • unrest • Free - floating • anxiety CONCERNS CONFRONTATIONS CONFLICTS CRISES • contestations • controversies • cleavages • open civil • unrest • counter- • movements • protests, • resistance • revolutionary • upheaval • violence • issues • general • debate • extreme • confrontations • stakeholders • clearly • delineated • parties-at- • interest

25. THE FIVE CRISES An ENGINEERING Crisis: Supply & Demand An ECOLOGICAL Crisis: Quality An ORGANIZATIONAL Crisis: Institutional Mobilization & Coordination A METHODOLOGICAL Crisis: Data & Modeling A PERCEPTUAL Crisis: Public Awareness, Involvement & Participation

26. The Competition for Water • Use vs. Use • Present vs. Future • Region vs. Region • Quantity vs. Quality • Water vs. Other Natural Resources • Water vs. Other Social Priorities

27. “Flashpoints” • Rivers forming a shared boundary • Human action triggers disruption [e.g. dams] • In cases of power asymmetries [water hegemony] • Following extreme events [e.g. droughts, floods, etc.]

30. Changing Approaches toPlanning and Management 1960s Feasibility studies, Elitist planning, Extrapolative orientation 1970s Environmental Impact Assessment, Indicators/Principles & Standards, modeling/data 1980s Cumulative Impact Assessment, foresight emphasis, “User pays,” “Polluter pays” principle 1990s Sustainability, Equity/Efficiency/Effort, Normative Planning 2000s Globalization, Integrated/Holistic/Comprehensive, “Co-evolution”

33. UNDERLYING TRANSFORMATIONS VOLATILITY TURBULENCE AND UNCERTAINTY VULNERABILITY INTERDEPENDENCIES AND RISK VIGILANCE ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNING AND PREPAREDNESS

34. Vulnerability analysis • a necessary step in development of emergency management plans. It identifies all possible vulnerabilities, presents historical data about past disasters, assesses future probability and frequency of emergencies and disasters, analyzes impacts and effects, and validates data

35. VULNERABILITY [a] Fragile Physical Environment = environmental degradation = lack of ecosystem resilience = history of extreme hydrological events [b] Fragile Economy = economic inequalities/disparities = inadequate funding [c] Lack of Local Institutions = lack of social resilience = poor social protection = marginalization = capacity for recuperability [d] Lack of Preparedness = inadequate warning systems = lack of training = lack of community mobilization

36. KEY CHALLENGES • conflict prevention • conflict management, and • the settlement of formal disputes

38. POLITICIANS [elected representatives policy generators] PRACTITIONERS [implementors administrators]

39. POLITICIANS [elected representatives policy generators] PROFESSIONALS [knowledge generators researchers data & information] PRACTITIONERS [implementors administrators]

40. POLITICIANS [elected representatives policy generators] PROFESSIONALS [knowledge generators researchers data & information] PRACTITIONERS [implementors administrators] PUBLIC [recipients]

41. POLITICIANS [elected representatives policy generators] PROFESSIONALS [knowledge generators researchers data & information] PRACTITIONERS [implementors administrators] PUBLIC [recipients]

42. EFFECTIVE GOVERNANCE • PARTICIPATION • TRANSPARENCY • COHERENCY • RESPONSIVENESS • NORMATIVE COMMITMENT • INTEGRATIVE

43. THE ON-GOING CHALLENCE OF RELATING: Legal Mandates Professional Standards 0 0 Prudent DM Balanced 0 0 Public Desires

44. Community at Work 1966

45. INTERNALIZED APPROACH CLOSED SYSTEM THE RANGE OF PUBLIC ENGAGEMENT AWARENESS INVOLVEMENT PARTICIPATION DEMOCRATIC DELEGATION OF POWER, SHARED LEADERSHIP INFORMATION JOINT FEEDBACK PLANNING PERSUASION EDUCATION CONSULTATION PARTICIPATORY PLANNING MONOLOGUE DIALOGUE

46. PERCEPTIONS OF PARTICIPATION • PARTICIPATION AS POLICY • PARTICIPATION AS STRATECY • PARTICIPATION AS COMMUNICATION • PARTICIPATION AS CONFLICT RESOLUTION • PARTICIPATION AS THERAPY

47. PREMISES • The process should provide opportunities for members of the public who wish to participate to do so. • The public should be made aware of the availability of such participation opportunities so that they can make that choice. • Adequate information should be made available to the public so that they can participate effectively.

48. OVERALL GOALS • Give people who feel they will be affected by a project the chance to participate in decisions. • Reach an acceptable effective agreement on a course of action. • Conduct public hearings that harbor no surprises or reversals of all preparatory steps. • Launch projects that stand an excellent chance of being realized because they are widely understood and supported by the public.

49. REPRESENTATIVENESS & PUBLIC INTEREST • Public participation is a learning process by which each participant acquires a more complete understanding of both the central issues and how other parties in the debate perceive the issues. • Members of the public can provide useful information to the decision maker, especially when values and preferences are involved that cannot be easily quantified. • Accountability of political and administrative decision makers is likely to be reinforced if the process is open to public view. • Consensus can be built through a systematic process of conflict management. • Public confidence and trust increase (and legitimacy also expands) when citizens can see all the issues have been fully and carefully considered. • Better decisions can be made by providing traceability and visibility of the decision making process. • g. The process can help use the experience and know how of the public to develop creative solutions to problems and to reduce later delays and costs from not having involved the public.

50. CAUSES OF LOCAL OPPOSITION • FEAR • EQUITY • DISPARITY BETWEEN COSTS & BENEFITS • DISTRUST / LACK OF CONFIDENCE • COMMUNITY IMAGE • PROPERTY VALUES • NUISSANCE NIMBY NIMTO LULU BANANA