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Economic Update

Economic Update . Economic Development Council of Seattle-King County Board Meeting February 27, 2014. Spencer Cohen Senior Economic Analyst. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY. As of December 2013, non-farm jobs in the Seattle MSA grew by 44,800 jobs over the past 12 months

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Economic Update

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  1. Economic Update Economic Development Council of Seattle-King County Board Meeting February 27, 2014 Spencer Cohen Senior Economic Analyst

  2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY • As of December 2013, non-farm jobs in the Seattle MSA grew by 44,800 jobsover the past 12 months • A 3.1% year-over-year increase • The not-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in King County was 4.7%in December 2013, down from 6.0% in December of 2012. • Seattle area inflation was 1.3%(year-over-year) for December 2013. • Up from 0.6% in October 2013.

  3. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY (continued) • In January 2014, driver’s license transfers to King County grew 18.3% year-over-year, from 3,858 to 4,565, based on a three month moving average. • King County Taxable Retail Sales were $12.1 Billionin Q3 2013, 7.4% greater than Q3 2012. • Home price index is remained high, 30 pointsabove a recent low in February 2012.

  4. CONTENTS Three Questions, Six Measures • Is the economy growing and if so, how rapidly? • Two measures: Total jobs and new residents • How is the cost of living changing? • Key measure: Wages and Inflation • How are we sustaining public sector services and fiscal health? • Two key measures: home prices and taxable retail sales

  5. EMPLOYMENT TRENDS Cumulative change in Seattle MSA and Washington State Employment, 2001 - 2013 Percent Change Washington State employment has grown by7.8%since January 2001. Seattle employment has risen by 6.6%in the same period. Washington Seattle Seasonally adjusted, based on 3 month moving average Sources: Washington State Employment Security Department; Community Attributes Inc.

  6. EMPLOYMENT TRENDS Percent Change Quarterly Seattle MSA and Washington State Employment, 2008 - 2013 % change by quarter, year over year Seattle gained 44,800 in the last 12 months. Washington Seattle Seasonally adjusted, based on 3 month average Sources: Washington State Employment Security Department; Community Attributes Inc.

  7. EMPLOYMENT TRENDS Seattle MSA Employment Change in jobs, thousands, month-over-month “Professional and Business Services” added over 7,400 jobs in 2013. Retail added 8,500 jobs. Government and Education Other Services Finance, Insurance and Real Estate (FIRE) Information Retail WTU Construction and Resources Manufacturing Monthly change in jobs by sector (thousands), seasonally adjusted, based on 3 month moving average Sources: Washington State Employment Security Department; Community Attributes Inc.

  8. WHAT’S DRIVING GROWTH? Change in Employment, Seattle MSA, Top 5 Sectors, December 2012 to December 2013 Retail added9,400 jobs between December 2012 and December 2013, equal to 21% of job gains by subsector. Year-over-year change in 3 month moving average, percentage change in parentheses Sources: Washington State Employment Security Department; Community Attributes Inc.

  9. MIGRATION King County License Transfers Total change year over year % change year over year In the last 12 months, 11,300Californians changed their residence to King County, followed by 3,600 Texans. More than 1,000 people from India changed their license. Total number of transfers (LHS) and year-over-year change (RHS), based on 3 month moving average Sources: Washington State Department of Licensing; Community Attributes Inc.

  10. COST OF LIVING Seattle Urban Consumer Price Index % change year over year 3.8% CPI increased slightly in the December, up 1.3%compared to 0.6%in October. 1.3% -0.5% Year-over-year change, by month Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Community Attributes Inc.

  11. HOUSING MARKET S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices and Vacancy Rates Vacancy Rate Case-Shiller index for Seattle MSA is 30 points aboverecent low in 2012. King County apartment vacancy up 0.5% from April 2013. Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue MSA, 3mma for price index, 2009-2013 (Feb) Sources: S&P Case-ShillerIndices Dupre+Scott; Community Attributes Inc.

  12. RETAIL ACTIVITIES Total Taxable Retail Sales, King County Total taxable retail sales peaked at $12.1 billion in the third quarter 2013. Per capita taxable retail sales grew7.4%y/y in Q3 2013. Year-over-year change, by quarter Sources: Washington State Department of Revenue; Community Attributes Inc.

  13. Thank you! Spencer Cohen Senior Economic Analyst Community Attributes Inc. spencer.cohen@communityattributes.com

  14. EMPLOYMENT TRENDS Unemployment and Labor Force, King County Year-over-year change, December 2008 – December 2013 Percent Change Early in the recession, labor force decelerated faster than unemployment rate. Not seasonally adjusted, based on 3 month moving average Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Community Attributes Inc.

  15. EMPLOYMENT TRENDS Initial Unemployment Claims, King County Number of Claims Construction Not seasonally adjusted, based on 3 month moving average Sources: Washington State Employment Security Department; Community Attributes Inc.

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