Human Development Report 2011

1. Human Development Report 2011 Martin Krause UNDP Kuala Lumpur 25 Nov 2011

2. Introducing…The HDR Human Development Reports are independent reports which look at development issues from a human development perspective, placing people in the centre. It is commissioned by UNDP and is the product of a selected team of leading scholars, development practitioners and members of the Human Development Report teams within UNDP offices.

3. Core Characteristics of an HDR • Independent: not driven by any particular agenda; can go beyond UNDP corporate positions • Credible: used by Govts and civil society; LDCs, MICs, developed countries • Demystify complex issues: appeal to an intelligent but non-expert audience; avoid jargon • Evidence: analysis backed by credible data • Participatory process: use national data and expertise

4. What makes an HDR unique Widely recognized externally: a credible advocacy report Buy-in from a variety of stakeholders Addresses politically sensitive issues • Global (21) • Regional (29) • National and sub-national (662)

5. Why equity and sustainability? • How can we…. • Maintain progress in ways that are equitable and that do not harm the environment? • Meet the development aspirations of poor people worldwide? • Promote policies that will advance both equity and sustainability?

6. Main Messages • Significant progress in human development over the last 40 years • BUT the progress is threatened by environmental degradation, climate change and inequality trends • Environmental degradation and climate change hurt the poorest the most • Economic and social development must go hand in hand with enhanced sustainability • For this to happen larger structural changes (policies, innovations, investments) are needed • Equity and sustainability are linked, one must be pursued with the other

7. Since 1980 HDI for Asia- Pacific increased by 55.5% • Between 1980 and 2011, Malaysia HDI increased from 0.559 to 0.761 (36%), annually 1.0%. It ranks at 61th out of 187 countries.

8. Current Environmental and Inequality trends undermine and slow down human development progress

9. Environmental degradation and climate change slow down/reverse development progress • By 2050, the global HDI would be: • 19% higher than it is today. • Largest increase in developing countries (24%). • 44% for Sub-Saharan Africa and 36% for South Asia. • 8% below projected baseline in an environmental challenge scenario. • 12% for South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. • 15% below projected baseline in an environmental disaster scenario. • Dramatic impact on developing countries • 24% for Sub-Saharan Africa and 22% for South Asia.

10. … and development gaps between countries will be harder to close • By 2050: • Baseline scenario: inequality between countries is expected to decrease. • Environmental challenge scenario: reduction in inequality is predicted to slow down. • Environmental disaster scenario: widening inequality, reversing current trends.

11. Inequalities slow down human development (1) • Inequality-adjusted HDI (accounting for internal disparities) reveals losses of 23% of HDI globally. • Health and education disparities are narrowing, but income inequality is worsening. • Average country-level income inequality increased around 20% between 1990–2005. • In MALAYSIAinequality rose after 1997 banking crisis and economic collapse.

12. Inequalities slow down human development (2) • Higher levels of gender inequality is associated with lower levels of sustainability. • Family planning could cut carbon emissions by about 17% by 2050. • 1.5 billion people lack electricity, 2.6 billion lack access to basic sanitation. • If current trends continue, more people will lack access to modern energy in 2030 than today. • HDI is low when there is unequal access to environmental resources.

13. Impacts of climate change and environmental degradation are wide spread and their effects are more severe on the poorest, both at the macro level and household level

14. Challenges are driven by climate change and ecosystem degradation • Global temperatures are rising. • Now average 0.75°C higher. • than at the beginning of the • 20thcentury. • Sea level is rising. • 20 centimeters higher today than in 1870 • Likelihood of natural disasters is increasing. • Average number per year doubled over 25 years • Loss of forest cover threatens livelihoods and biodiversity. • Low HDI countries experience greatest losses (11%).

15. Poorest countries have been worst affected by changes in precipitation • Overall Decline in precipitation of more than 4% • Increased variability

16. Climate Change and Environmental Degradation affect poor households • Education: • Natural disasters and land degradation constrain both enrolment and progress of enrolled children. • Livelihoods: • Significant risks for 350 million people who rely on forests for subsistence and incomes. • Similarly for 45 million (6 million are women) that fish for a living. • Health: • Indoor air pollution kills 11 times more people in low HDI countries. • Each year 3 million children under age 5 die from environment-related diseases.

17. Climate Change and Environmental Degradation affect … • Loss of fertile topsoil reduces land productivity. Yield losses as high as 50%. China, Indonesia, Myanmar and MALAYSIA will be affected. • Ecosystem degradation: Villages with healthy Mangrove forests, coral reefs and lowland forests were less affected by 2004 tsunami in India, Indonesia, Sri Lanka and MALAYSIA

18. For a transformative shift, we need global, national and local innovations (1)

19. For a transformative shift, we need global, national and local innovations (2) • Support policies that promote sustainable production and consumption • Promote more inclusive participation in governance and policy-making by those most vulnerable to environmental hazards • Swift implementation of UN Universal Energy Access Initiative. • Removing barriers to technology diffusion • Support of National low-emission, climate-resilient development strategies. • Achieving this would increase CO2 emissions by only 0.8% • Estimated annual investment is less than an eighth of annual subsidies for fossil fuel.

20. For a transformative shift, we need global, national and local innovations (3) • The scale of the challenge demands massive investment and innovation, facilitated by policies and finance • Current development and climate finance is insufficient and with unequal access (countries and sectors) • New financing sources: Currency Transactions Tax • Feasibility of implementation and growing high-level support • Reforms for greater equity and access to finance • National government role in catalyzing private resources • National climate funds to promote blending of resources

21. Promoting human development requires addressing sustainability. • This can and should be done in ways that are equitable and empowering

22. Thank youhttp://hdr.undp.org