Sanctions as War: The cases of Iraq and Iran

1. Sanctions as War:The cases of Iraq and Iran Sammy Almashat, MD Left Forum 2013

3. Objectives • Historic overview of sanctions as tools of war • Case studies: Iraq and Iran (Gaza also in acute crisis) • Unquestioned assumptions fueling near-universal consensus in U.S.

4. Overview • Sanctions vs. Embargo • Iraq first modern instance of “internationally” coordinated total embargo • Extra-territorial sanctions • Iran now approaching conditions resembling embargo

5. Iraq

6. Iraq pre-1990 Sustained improvements in public health (and other) infrastructure beginning in 1970s and continuing throughout 1980s

7. Iraq pre-1990 • Child health: • 50% reduction in infant/child mortality (since 1980) • Undernourishment in Iraqi children “no longer a public health problem” • Healthcare: • Universal healthcare access (93% population) • Majority of pregnant women had pre/peri-natal services • Education: • Universal primary education (93% children) • “highly effective” literacy campaign (85% women) • Infrastructure: • “Vast majority” of households had access to electricity • 80% access to safe drinking water • Population caloric requirements met (120% of requirements); “one of the highest per-capita food availability ratings in the region”

9. “This aggression will not stand” • George H. W. Bush, August 6, 1990

10. Gulf War I:“near apocolyptic” • 130,000 tons of munitions dropped on Iraq in a 43-day span • Iraqi casualties: 30-100,000 military and civilian deaths estimated • Devastation of infrastructure: Sec. of State James Baker’s fulfilled promise to “bomb Iraq back into the Stone Age” • Power plants • Water treatment facilities • Bridges • $232 billion in total damages

11. Iraq embargo • Passed by UN Security Council in August 1990 • U.S. power (Yemen sole abstention) • Near-total ban on imports and exports • Immediate impact (90% imports, 97% exports) • Cholera, tyhpoid outbreaks (previously eradicated through sanitation, vaccination programs)

12. Iraqi Economy pre- and post-1990 (% reduction)

13. Oil-for-Food:Humanitarian Illusions • 1996: “Oil-for-Food” program implemented • Allowed Iraq to export fraction of pre-1990 levels for humanitarian goods • “Dual-use” items (e.g. childhood vaccines, water treatment equipment) • Contract holds: U.S. (95%) UK (5%)

14. Sanctions toll:1990-2003 • 1995: 1,100 calories/person/day under ration system • Deaths: 200,000 to 500,000 children under 5 (up to 1 million total) • Middle-class decimated (unemployment, hyperinflation, exile) • Ration economy: from opposition to dependence on Saddam

15. “Genocidal” policy • “…the kind of increases of child mortality that were seen in Iraq are almost unknown in the public health literature. Iraq is the only instance of a sustained, large increase in mortality in a stable population of more than 2 million in the last 200 years.” • Two consecutive UN humanitarian coordinators (Hans von Sponeck, Denis Halliday) resign in protest of “genocidal” policy

16. Iran

17. Iran Sanctions • Began in 1979 following Islamic revolution • Unilateral, “primary” sanctions at first • 1990s: extra-territorial (“secondary”) elements enacted • 2010-2012: extra-territorial provisions expanded to Iranian financial sector (and enforcement begins) • 2012: EU sanctions oil industry • 2013 (June 3): Exec order sanctioning Iran’s currency (potentially impacting 1/5 Iranian economy)

18. Economic Consequences • Oil exports halved (lowest since 1980s) • Rial’s value cut to one-third of previous levels/near-hyperinflation sets in (30% in 2012) • First GDP contraction in two decades (1.9% March 2012-2013; further 1.3% projected this year) • Unemployment now 20% • Industrial base collapsing (auto production down 40% since 2011)

19. Iranian Health Advances Threatened • Primary care network, reaching 23 million rural dwellers • 75% reduction in rural infant mortality • Free contraception: “… largest and fastest drop in [birth rate] ever recorded…” since the 1980s • Domestic pharmaceutical industry overcame access barriers posed by Western pharmaceutical patents • Healthcare coverage not universal, but govt and private insurance (mostly through employers) cover 90% of services to population

20. Pharmaceuticals • 85% essential medicines produced domestically; $2.1 billion/year industry • Domestic production down sharply due to lack of raw materials (“dual-use” chemicals) • Many newer, more complex medications still imported • 50% drop in imports from U.S. (2012) • Oncologic drugs (Herceptin, Paclitaxel), newer anesthetics, hemophilia blood factors and other biologics • Medical devices, hospital equipment also affected • 6 million patients at risk

21. Humanitarian Exemptions:“Oil for Food” redux • U.S. Treasury Dept: • “It has been the longstanding policy of the United States not to target Iranian imports of humanitarian items, such as food, medicine and medical devices.” • Reality: • “Virtually no American or European bank wants to be involved in financial transactions with Iran, no matter what products are involved.” (NYT, 11/2/2012)

22. “Put plainly, Washington and Brussels’ stated intention that sanctions ‘pressure the Iranian government…without contributing to the suffering of the ordinary [Iranians],’ as former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton once put it, is not being reflected by the reality on the ground.” - Wilson Center report on Iran sanctions and medical supply shortages, Feb 2013

23. Humanitarian Illusions, Financial Realities • Absurdity of humanitarian exemptions while destroying economy • “Dual-use” re-enters discourse (e.g. list of exempted medical devices) • Secondary sanctions and draconian penalties guaranteee no foreign banks will finance imports and exports to and from Iran

24. Iran vs. Iraq:Decisive Differences • Iraq 1990-2003: total embargo following post-war devastation, economy virtually obliterated, traditional trade non-existent • Iran 2013: $500 billion annual GDP (Iraq 1990: $60 billion) • Iranian alliances vs. Iraqi isolation • American power and influence: 1990 vs. 2013

25. Stopping the U.S., Solidarity with Iranians

26. U.S. public opinion on Iran • 80% favor tougher sanctions • 63% favor military force • 70% see Iranian nuclear program as “major threat”

27. Reframing the debate • What is the Iranian threat? (“Western obsession”) • Why are the sanctions in place? • What are ultimate U.S. goals?

28. NPT • Signed in 1968 • Two parallel commitments • Non-nuclear nations would promise not to pursue weaponization • The forgotten obligation: “nuclear club” at the time would make “good faith” efforts to eliminate their nuclear weapons stockpiles

29. Sanctions in context • Sanctions but one element of ongoing, 34-year war against Iran • Terrorism (nuclear scientists, Stuxnet) • Subversion (MEK) • Daily, credible threats of military force

30. The Real Threat

31. www.havaar.org “We are a grassroots group of Iranians, Iranian-Americans and allies who have joined together to categorically oppose any military action and the U.S.-led sanctions against Iran. We stand in solidarity with the Iranian people’s struggle against war and sanctions and against state repression; we know that all of these forms of violence hurt the lives and aspirations of ordinary Iranians.”