Policies for GHG Emission Reduction in Canadian Agriculture

1. Policies for GHG Emission Reduction in Canadian Agriculture Richard Gray Centre for Studies in Agriculture, Law and the Environment University of Saskatchewan

2. Objectives • give some indication of the major sources of GHG emissions from agriculture • illustrate some of the challenges that reducing these sources will create for policy • provide some the economic rational for the policy recommendations contained in the AFFCC Table report • seek your input

3. Concentration Trends of CO2, CH4, and N2O Carbon Dioxide Methane 1800 380 1600 360 1400 340 (ppbv) (ppmv) CH4 concentration 1200 320 CO2 concentration 300 1000 280 800 260 600 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Year Year Nitrous Oxide 315 310 305 O concentration 300 (ppbv) 295 290 285 2 280 N 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Year

4. Projected CO2 Concentrations (to 2100) High Estimate Intermediate Estimate Low Estimate

5. Projected Temperature Change between 1910 and 2040 AD Combined Effect of Projected Greenhouse Gas and Sulfate Aerosol Increases.- Canadian Model

6. Questions about climate change • Are GHG gases accumulating? √√ • Will GHG cause climate change?√ • Will Kyoto stop climate change? x • Will the changes be bad? ??? • For world, • for Canada, • for agriculture?

7. The FCCC and the Kyoto Accord • Canada commitment- 6% below 1990 for the 2008- 2012 period (25% below BAU) • Has to be signed and ratified by countries with 55% of emissions to take effect • Agricultural soils counted as a source but not as a sink • No penalties for non-compliance but any country ratifying the agreement might force others into compliance

9. Canada’s Response to Kyoto(www.nccp.ca) • Goal to develop an implementation strategy by fall 1999. • 16 Tables set up to deal with sector or inter-sectoral issues • an integrative table looks at all sectors and makes recommendations • Climate Change Secretariat must report to Ministers • One for agriculture and one for forestry/agricultural sinks • Representatives from producers, industry, NGOs, fed/prov. government, universities • Foundation papers -science • Options papers - policy

14. Net Annual Exchange of CO2 by Crops (Mt/yr) 8 CO2 Energy 90 520 300 Product 130 130 Soil organic matter Ecosystem boundary

15. Change in Organic C Content in Agricultural Soils (0-30 cm) 5000 3325 4500 3300 3275 Soil Organic Carbon (Gg) 4000 3250 1975 1985 1995 2005 3500 3000 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 Year

16. 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 -100 -120 Change in Agricultural Soil Carbon for Various Provinces in Canada Rate of change of soil C (kg/ha) Eastern Provinces Manitoba Saskatchewan Alberta British Columbia Canada 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Year

17. Measurement of Soil C Gain Variability 80 Analytical Spatial 70 60 50 Increase with improved management Soil C (Mg C ha-1) 40 30 20 10 Initial 0

18. N2O emissions for 1991 and 1996 (CO2 equivalent*) Total N2O emissions from agriculture 1991: 34.3Tg 1996:40.9 Tg Direct emissions of N2O from agricultural soils 1991:17.9 Tg 1996: 21.5 Tg Direct emissions of N2O in animal production systems 1991:6.7 Tg 1996: 7.6 Tg Indirect emissions of N2O from agricultural systems 1991: 9.6 Tg 1996: 11.8 Tg * using a 100 year time horizon

20. Use of soil sinks net effects ? CO2  N2O  short term  long term  can only use once - option value? The form/costs of contract to ensure maintenance of sink

21. 1981 1986 1991 1996 CO 33 31 29 27 2 CH 22 20 20 23 4 N O 32 33 34 41 2 91 Total 87 84 83 GHG Emissions from Canada’s Agroecosystems Including Inputs (100 Year Time Horizon) (Mt of CO2 equivalents)

22. Implications science for control of Ag GHG emissions • Nitrous oxide and Methane are new problems • Farming systems/ technologies to reduce GHG are still unclear • it may be possible to develop low cost mitigation options simply has not been explored

23. large scale measurement of emissions is expensive 250,000 farms, over 50 million hectares, hundreds of products large spatial and temporal variations systems and interactions are complex

24. Fixed proportion (eg. fossil fuel /GHG) can be managed with higher prices (taxes) anywhere in the system in agriculture emissions are not proportional fossil fuel use - not even monotonic e.g.. N fertilizer - soil carbon less grain more cows Indirect measures - based on reduced input use or product output may be ineffective

25. the latest technologies may be cleaner- output expansion required to replace the old. Expansion may reduce emissions reduced production in Canada may encourage dirty productionelsewhere Related issues

26. Agriculture most directly affected by climate change technologies have to make sense within changing climates

27. Policy options Regulations - regulate what? Taxation - tax what? Subsidize - subsidize what? Create emission markets - for what? Carbon only? Do nothing- leave agriculture out

28. The AAFCC Table’s Knowledge Based Approach spend resources to create technologies that will be voluntarily adopted by the sector basic research applied research in GHG mitigation research in measurement and verification technologies policy / carbon trading research industry involvement extension and education

29. Table Recommendations: 1. Governments should provide resources to assist the extension of knowledge required to foster the adoption of proven technologies. 2.In recognition of the public benefits where cost-effective technologies are well known, and an economic incentive is required for their adoption, governments should provide public incentives for the adoption of GHG-reducing technologies.

30. 3. The federal government should continue to insist on the inclusion of soil, forestry and industrial sinks in the international protocol and to ensure that the guidelines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reflect Canadian conditions. 4.Governments should create research funds managed by the agricultural sector to assist in research and development of applied technologies for GHG reduction.

31. 5. Governments should provide public resources to support basic research activities for net GHG reduction. 6. As part of a national strategy, governments should work with the agricultural sector to refine national inventory, measurement and verification systems for net GHG emissions and to reflect improvements in technology.

32. 7. GHG emission trends in all sectors of agriculture in all provinces should be monitored and published. 8. Governments should work with the agricultural sector to develop targets for the reduction of GHG emissions along with incentives for meeting the targets.

33. 9. Governments should assist the agricultural sector in the development and refinement of “best management practices” for the reduction of GHG emissions. 10. Governments should provide resources to assist policy research, market research, legal research and other public infrastructure to facilitate the development of trading mechanisms that reward reductions in net agricultural GHG emissions.

34. 11. Governments should co-operate with private sector partners to develop a strategy that will enhance the agricultural sector’s ability to adapt to climate change using sustainable farming systems.

35. Summary A. Many sources of uncertainty - effects of GHG - ratification of international agreements -compliance with international agreements -inclusion of sinks - overall domestic policy - technologies for reduction in agriculture B: Difficult to monitor and or indirectly control emissions in agriculture

36. Best policies? - spend resources on learning (research) -wait for more information before spending large sums

37. Questions? Comments?