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Communicating Risk

National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City, NC. Communicating Risk. The Problem. Poll Shows Coastal Residents are Not Prepared for Hurricane Season

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Communicating Risk

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  1. National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City, NC Communicating Risk

  2. The Problem Poll Shows Coastal Residents are Not Prepared for Hurricane Season Emergency management officials found these poll results to be the most alarming: - 83% said they have not taken any steps in the past year to make their homes stronger, even after last year’s active season. - 66% have no hurricane survival kit.- 62% don’t feel vulnerable to a hurricane or related tornado or flooding.- 55% do not have a family disaster plan. These things happening to other people, but you never think it will happen to you. Add sound effects to a presentation http://www.wctv.tv/news/headlines/46388657.html

  3. The Problem Hurricane, Disaster Preparedness Complacency Continues to Grow: Preparedness authorities are warning that residents of hurricane regions are even more apathetic than last year • Respondents who believe storms pose no direct threat to them rose from 54 to 62 percent from 2008. • 16 percent mistakenly think the government will provide food, water and shelter immediately after a storm. • More than half of those polled reported they would not leave home if a major storm was approaching or would only evacuate if ordered by local officials. These things happening to other people, but you never think it will happen to you. Add sound effects to a presentation http://www.hstoday.us/content/view/8740/149/

  4. The Problem • Optimism Bias-the belief that bad things only happen to "other people." A sense of invincibility. NOAA Report Uncovers Why Some People Don’t Heed Severe Weather Warnings:Assessment of the Super Tuesday Tornado Outbreak of February 5-6, 2008 Interviewees said they spent time seeking confirmation of a tornado before seeking shelter. These things happening to other people, but you never think it will happen to you. Add sound effects to a presentation http://www.hstoday.us/content/view/8740/149/

  5. The Problem • Sensationalism • Too much doom and glooming where things don’t pan out breeds even more complacency. A poll at sunsentinel.com said by a better than 2-to-1 margin that hurricane season is "overhyped“ NHC director Read said forecasters can't win with a critical public. "For one person it's too much information, for another it's not enough," he said. These things happening to other people, but you never think it will happen to you. Add sound effects to a presentation www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/broward/sfl-hurricane-hype-060109,0,3928906.story

  6. The Problem • Will not evacuate Studies by the Harvard School of Public Health Project on the Public and Biological Security • Most of those who plan on staying believe they would be rescued if they needed to be. • Two-thirds (66%) are confident that they would be rescued if they were unable to evacuate and needed help. • Among those who do not intend to evacuate (75%) are confident they will be rescued. • Most people also feel they can rely a lot or some on their immediate neighbors should they need help (73%). These things happening to other people, but you never think it will happen to you. Add sound effects to a presentation http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/view.php?id=30445

  7. Top reasons for not evacuating the area if there were a major hurricane Among those who said they would stay in the area or are not sure (33%) Home is well-built/will be safe at home Think roads will be too crowded Think evacuating would be dangerous Worried possessions would be stolen/damaged Harvard School of Public Health Project on the Public and Biological Security, July 5-11, 2006.

  8. The Problem • The memorable warning issued last September when Hurricane Ike was approaching Galveston, Texas, with a predicted 20-foot storm surge: • "Persons not heeding evacuation orders in singe-family, one- or two-story homes will face certain death," it said. • The storm surge wasn't quite that high due to the storm moving east of Galveston. However it still swept parts of the Texas coast clear, and dozens of people died. More vanished. Why? These things happening to other people, but you never think it will happen to you. Add sound effects to a presentation http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/view.php?id=30445

  9. What can we do better? • Clarity • Better Call to action statements • Higher emphasis on main hazard threat in HLS • More specific/details on impacts when/where • Credibility • More effectively convey the urgency and danger of the message without “crying wolf” • Adapt to critical audiences • Webpage with Spanish interpretations • Must be adapted to if risk communication messages are to be effective. Add sound effects to a presentation www.hurricanesafety.org

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