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Stability in the Caspian Sea Region

Stability in the Caspian Sea Region. An Alternate Energy Source for the European Union. Matthew P. Brown MAJ, US Army, Eurasian FAO 4 Mar 09. Orientation. EU Energy Imports. Oil: EU Consumption Rate 14,950,000 bbl/day. EU Production Rate 3,100,000 bbl/day.

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Stability in the Caspian Sea Region

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  1. Stability in the Caspian Sea Region An Alternate Energy Source for the European Union Matthew P. Brown MAJ, US Army, Eurasian FAO 4 Mar 09

  2. Orientation

  3. EU Energy Imports Oil: • EU Consumption Rate 14,950,000 bbl/day. • EU Production Rate 3,100,000 bbl/day. • Required Imports 11,850,000 bbl/day. • EU Imports 80% of its oil. • 38% from OPEC states. • 33% from Russia. • 16% from Norway. • 5% from Kazakhstan. • 8% from others. Natural Gas: • EU Consumption Rate 18,516 billion ft^3. • EU Production Rate 8,670 billion ft^3. • Required Imports 9,846 billion ft^3. • EU Imports 53% of its gas. • 40% from Russia. • 25% from Algeria. • 16% from Norway. • 19% from others.

  4. Alternate Energy & Diversification • EU Concerns: • Environmental: Coal. • Cost: Nuclear, Renewable. • Gas: • Solves both of these problems. • Presents the problem of supply. • In order to ensure reliable natural gas imports, the EU must find a way to diversify suppliers. • The Caspian Sea region. 27% EU Energy Consumption 21% 2009 2020

  5. Caspian Sea Region(Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Azerbaijan) • Proven Resources: • Oil: 36.7 billion bbl. • Gas: 220 trillion ft^3. • Much is unexplored. • Pipelines: • Caspian Pipeline Consortium (oil). • Baku-Supsa Pipeline (oil). • Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline (oil). • Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum Pipeline (gas). • Central-Asia Center Pipeline (gas).

  6. Process to determine stability • Democracy: Democratic Freedom Index (Economist Intelligence Unit): • Security: Internal and external threats (Congressional Reports). • Economy: Economic Freedom Index (Heritage Foundation and Dow Jones & Company).

  7. Democracy(Democratic Freedom Index)

  8. Security Threats • Kazakhstan: • External: Regional Hegemonic Status Competition. • Internal. Political suppression of opposition. • Turkmenistan: • External. Few. • Internal. Trafficking of drugs, weapons, people. Water rights to Amu Darya. • Azerbaijan: • External. Potential for conflict with Armenia. • Internal. Ethnic Armenian minority. Radical Islam. Trafficking of drugs, weapons, people.

  9. Economy(Economic Freedom Index)

  10. Conclusions • Long term stability: questionable. • Democratic values: Poor. • Security: Low Risk. • Economy: Weak Institutions. • Opportunity is available for EU; for Southeast Asia also.

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