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Subsea Technology: Addressing Self-Similarity in Oil Production Trends & Challenges

This presentation outlines current trends and challenges in the oil industry, focusing on the self-similarity observed in global oil production patterns. It discusses the need for technological advancements to address diminishing discoveries of Giant and Super Giant fields and emphasizes the potential for increased oil recovery from small fields and heavy crudes. The presentation also highlights the importance of subsea field developments and the use of accurate simulation tools in predicting flow dynamics and enhancing production efficiency. Furthermore, it explores the evolution of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) in modeling complex multiphase systems and the future prospects for intelligent CFD solutions to optimize oil recovery in large fields.

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Subsea Technology: Addressing Self-Similarity in Oil Production Trends & Challenges

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Presentation Transcript

  1. Self-similarity and the need for subsea technology

  2. Outline of presentation • Trends & challenges • Technological needs • Research needs

  3. ? Trends • Since the early 80’s the global production rate has exceeded discoveries • Number of new discoveries of Giant and Super Giant fields (Ultimate Recoverable Resource (URR) > 500Mbbl) decreases • Is global oil production about to peak?

  4. North Sea US Norway Self-similarity? • Production histories from selected oil provinces look very similar • This self-similarity may suggest an eminent peak in global oil production • Increasing focus on • Increased Oil Recovery • production from small fields (URR<50Mbbl) • Heavy (ultra-heavy) crudes

  5. Potential IOR in large fields • Average recovery factor in NCS is less than 50% • Total volume of unrecoverable reserves > 3000 MSm3 oil (~5 x GDP)

  6. 98 78 5% more oil 63 59 60% more fields Small fields are challenging • Small fields do not contain much oil (by definition!) • Development of small fields is only possible when • Field development costs are low • Operating costs are low

  7. 2006-2010 1995-2000 2001-2005 Subsea field developments • Trends • Development of smaller fields • Development of large fields subsea-to-beach • Being able to predict what happens in flow lines and processing units is key to success • Further development of accurate simulation tools is crucial

  8. Current modelling approaches • OLGA • 1D frame work, pre-integrated 2D model for stratified flow • LEDA • Coupled 1D-3D simulator, 1D/2D for pipe flow, 3D for processing units • Fluent, StarCD, CFX • 3D codes

  9. CFD 1D models Physical complexity Simplified 1D models 101 107 105 103 L/D Hierarchy of models • CFD • Reasonable on “short” length scales • Difficulties with interacting dispersed phases and free boundaries • Difficult closure relations (turbulence/dispersed phase interactions) • 1D models • Difficulties on short length scales which influences long-scale phenomena • Difficult to get closure relations which are universally valid

  10. Simulation time CFD 1D codes 2010 2015 2020 Trends • Increased processor speed and algorithm improvements lead to speed-up of factor 1000 per decade in CFD codes • Demand for more accurate physical modelling leads to slow down of current 1D and future 2D simulators • Pre-integrated models (use of turbulent velocity field information)

  11. Naive application of CFD • CFD simulation of 2-phase system • 30m pipe, 2x104 cells requires 5 days CPU time (4 processors) to simulate 30 second real time • Field case • 5km pipe, 1hr transport time • 3x106 cells, 95040 days of simulation time • With speed-up factor of 1000/decade it becomes possible to perform real-time 3D transient simulation of 5km pipe within 20 years

  12. FACE Horizon/LEDA Physical complexity Industry 101 107 105 103 L/D Multiphase research in Norway • Research is driven by industry and institutes • Academic activity is scattered • Who is doing the really difficult ground work? • Where are the future researchers being educated?

  13. hydro.com

  14. Intelligent CFD • Massively parallel simulations • Use information from 1D/quasi-1D/2D codes as pre-conditioners for 3D solution • Multi-scale simulator • Decouple high-frequency/short-length scale effects from low-frequency/long-length scale phenomena

  15. Potential IOR in large fields (2)

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