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Potential Projects for SAMSI Program on Environmental Models

This project proposal outlines various innovative approaches for enhancing environmental and epidemiological modeling through time-dependent parameters. Notable contributions include reports on model improvements, uncertainty assessment, and dynamic emulators for hydrological models. The proposal discusses extending project ideas, assessing their innovative potential, and forming small project teams to develop actionable plans. Key contributors include experts from various fields, suggesting methods such as polynomial chaos quadrature and efficient global optimization. The aim is to translate ideas into concrete projects and foster stimulating discussions within a diverse group.

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Potential Projects for SAMSI Program on Environmental Models

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  1. Potential Projects for SAMSI Program on Environmental Models Peter Reichert

  2. Concrete Projects • Johanna Mieleitner: Application of time-dependent parameters to a simple hydrological model (model improvements, uncertainty assessment). • Ariel Contron-Arias: Application of time-dependent parameters to a simple epidemiological model (identification of times of changing behavior).

  3. Discussed Project Ideas • Ariel Contron-Arias: Other approaches to dealing with time dependent parameters for epidemiological models. • Fei Liu: Linearized treatment of time-dependent param. • Serge Guillas: More general class of time-dep. param. • Robert Wolpert: Stat. characterization of rainfall uncertainty. • Tony O’Hagan: Dynamic emulators for hydrological model. • Bruce Pitman: Apply polynomial chaos quadrature to hydrological model. • Lenny Smith: Use sets of probabilities for characterizing uncertainty and for decision support. • Christine Schoemaker: Apply efficient global optimization to environmental models. • ?: Other approaches to dealing with bias then GP or OU.

  4. Suggestion for Future Activities • Extend list of project ideas. • Assess innovative potential and usefulness. • Try to move more of the ideas to projects by making them more concrete. • Build small project teams that work on projects. • Do not build more working groups; report back from projects to the “big” methodology group for discussion and for getting inspirations.The larger “diversity” of this group can be expected to be more stimulating then smaller, more specific working groups. • Plan conference contributions / contributions to closing workshop/final report based on preliminary results.

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