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Networks of the Future ( Smart , Multipurpose and Flexible by Design )

Networks of the Future ( Smart , Multipurpose and Flexible by Design ) World Water Congress and Exhibition Busan , Korea (16-21, September, 2012). Kala Vairavamoorthy Executive Director Patel School of Global Sustainability UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

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Networks of the Future ( Smart , Multipurpose and Flexible by Design )

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  1. Networks of the Future (Smart, Multipurpose and Flexible by Design) World Water Congress and Exhibition Busan, Korea (16-21, September, 2012) Kala Vairavamoorthy Executive Director Patel School of Global Sustainability UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH FLORIDA

  2. Bad News – External Pressures make the Future Difficult • Entire earth system is changing!

  3. Would we really do the same again? If we knew that: Understanding pipe condition impacts our ability to maintain services and is critical to our long term investments Over the next 20 years, electricity costs will double, that electricity cost in 2050 are anybody’s guess. Only 20% of urban areas are now built and there is a possibility to do things differently. Our projections were significantly off (+/-) ?

  4. The future is now! Image fromWssTP

  5. Many of the big players see opportunities for making cities smarter Smart City Technology IBM Smarter Cities Sustainable Cities Smart and Connected Communities Smart Water Networks Smart Cities Smart City of Tomorrow

  6. Many of the big players see opportunities for making cities smarter…..IBM IBM 2010

  7. Many of the big players see opportunities for making cities smarter…IBM • Develop and apply technologies to improve core city systems (incl. energy, water transport, ITC ) • Creation of new value through interoperation of different infrastructure systems • Increase efficiencies, while positioning cities for long-term economic growth • Optimize around the citizen – citizen centric approach to service provision

  8. WDN zone (DMA) demarcation tool What is smart for the water sector: convergence of technologies..... Hitachi • Comprehensive management of the water cycle by adopting more intelligent individual technologies, including water recycling and other water treatment technologies, IT, and monitoring& control technologies………. • ……..treating the water cycle as a flow of both water and information Quelle: E-Energy Jahreskongress 2009, Prof. Gunter Dueck

  9. Water can learn from the power sector • Real-time ‘talking’ between customer and supplier • Security through diversity • Clusters create resiliency MassoudAmin, 2010

  10. But water is lagging behind in thinking and investments • 14% of investment for energy grids will go into smart energy grids (Zome 2012) • 5% of investment for traffic system will go into smart traffic systems (Pikeresearch2012) • 3% of investment for water system will go into smart water systems (Pikeresearch2010)

  11. There are many typologies for smart networks thinking • Smart use of water • Smart control • Smart by design

  12. There are many typologies for smart networks thinking • Smart use of water • Smart control • Smart by design

  13. The Water Machine Heat En. energy Electric En. Reclaimed non-potable Potable Water Quality A,B,C Urine Surface Water Brownwater Ground Water Grey water Solidwaste Rain Water Energy Nutrients Hygienized Sludge G,R,F X-S

  14. But how will water machines be plumbed? Challenge: Deliver Water Quality Fit for Purpose Kitchen Bath Toilet Laundry Garden Pipe Bundles for Different Water Qualities Water Machine Water Users Service water for toilet & laundry Service water for garden Potable water

  15. But how will water machines be plumbed? Challenge: Deliver Water Quality Fit for Purpose Kitchen Bath Toilet Laundry Garden Different Water Qualities at Different Time Water Machine Water Users Service water for toilet & laundry Potable water 0 6 12 18 24

  16. There are many typologies for smart networks thinking • Smart use of water • Smart control • Smart by design

  17. ‘Smart’ helps manage pipe-bursts more effectively Optimal Valve Isolation Calculate Location of Burst Allen et al. 2011

  18. ‘Smart’ helps manage pipe-bursts more effectively Isolate Leak Allen et al. 2011

  19. ‘Smart’ helps manage pipe-bursts more effectively Alert Customer Repair Team • Pipe Break • Location GPS • Pipe Material • Pipe Depth • … Allen et al. 2011

  20. ‘Smart’ allows appliances to negotiate with the water market Water Demand Electric Demand Time

  21. ‘Smart’ allows appliances to negotiate with the water market Smart meter Smart meter Water Demand Electric Demand Central Control Unit Time

  22. ‘Smart’ allows appliances to negotiate with the water market Flattened Peak Flattened Peak Water Demand Electric Demand Central Control Unit Time

  23. Pipe condition assessment is currently a dark art Criticality Analysis (1000 pipes) Significance Pipe Condition Pipe Significance

  24. With ‘smart sensors’ it may become better understood Historical Data Sensor Data Big Data Analytics • Embedded Sensors Monitor • Pressures • Velocities • Temperature • Water Quality • Soil Conditions • Material Strains • Pipe Stress Pipe Condition Assessment Pipe Replacement Rehabilitation Optimal Plan

  25. Networks of the future will have lives of their own • Frictionless • Slippery Liquid-Infused Porous Surfaces (SLIPS) • Super-thin Nano-substrates infused with a liquid lubricant creates a smooth surface • Reduced biofilm formation by 96-99% • Smart Pipes • Nano scale sensors embedded into pipes during manufacturing. • Sensors monitor data on hydraulic, material, and environmental • Sensors provide geo-referenced data points • Self Healing • Various strategies: capsule, vascular, intrinsic • Pipes store healing agents and polymerizers that solidify when mixed • Healing efficiencies 100% • Recovery strength >100% Corrosion formation Corrosion Repair Metje et al. 2011 Epstein et al. 2012 White et al. 2011

  26. There are many typologies for smart networks thinking • Smart use of water • Smart control • Smart by design

  27. We need smart networks to be adaptive in an uncertain world • Entire earth system is changing! Uncertainty in storm events Uncertainty in runoff response Uncertainty in carrying capacity/breakage rate Uncertainty in quantity & quality Uncertainty in demand

  28. We need smart networks to be adaptive in an uncertain world 1990 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 F

  29. What is adaptive/flexible ? Flexibility is the ability of urban water systems to use their active capacity to act to respond on relevant alterations in a performance efficient, timely and cost effective way

  30. What is adaptive/flexible ? Flexibility is the ability of urban water systems to use their active capacity to act torespond on relevant alterations in a performance efficient, timely and cost effective way Characteristics of the change process Capability for active change of system Deal with future uncertainties

  31. Flexibility VS Robustness Desired Use Flexible Design Changing Optimum Design Robust Design Fixed Environment Fixed/Known Changing/Unknown

  32. Real Options Theory • Net Disturbance Propagation (NDP) • Range of Resemblance (RR) • Communality Index (CI)

  33. Sustainable Urban Drainage pervious pavement ecological treatment green roofs infiltration trench stormwater harvesting retention pond SUDs provides modular diversity that increases flexibility resulting in a complex adaptive system (Sieker et al., 2008, Eckart, 2008)

  34. Sustainable Urban Drainage Open trenches SWD Filter strips Permeable pavers 8 Bio Retention Green roofs RWH Suite of Options

  35. SUDs provides Complex Adaptively Semi-Urban Urban Rural Time

  36. Case Study: Kupferzell Germany SUDS Sewers Helm 2007 Eckart, Sieker, Vairavamoorthy (2010)

  37. Indicator of Flexibility - Homogeneity Performance Conventional Sewer SUDS Good performance only for few indicators (low homogeneity and low flexibility) Good performance for several indicators (high homogeneity and high flexibility) 20 annual flood COD Phosporus Wetlands Evaporation Discharge from retention Resource consumption Usability Space demand Average high water SS Cupper Micro climate Usability resources Investment costs Staff ratio Presence Small scale pattern Average low water Nitrogen Lead Recharge groundwater Variety processes Operational costs Utility value Soil conservation Operational live span Eckart, Sieker, Vairavamoorthy 2011

  38. Case Study ‘Hamburg-Wilhelmsburg’ Alt 1 SUDS Alt 2 Sewer

  39. Comparison Flexibility Provided by Alternative Solutions • Combination of the 3 metrics Alt 1 SUDS is more flexible than Alt 2 Sewer • Alt 1 SUDS: lower regret for all metrics • Alt 2 Sewer: higher regret for all metrics

  40. Take home message Move away from a deterministic, path-dependent approach to a more flexible & adaptive approach (educate future urban leaders to understand how to design and manage urban systems, institutions and regulations in a changing & uncertain world)

  41. Transitioning Transitioning Existing System Transitioning ? Future System Based on Old System Future System Totally New System Graph Theory Transition Systems

  42. Transitioning Existing Systems ? Performance Investment

  43. 0 10 20 30 40

  44. 0 10 20 30 40

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